IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Most freezing rain events kill themselves after awhile so to speak, they release latent heat with all the freezing and warm surface temps on their own This is a great setup for an ice storm for this area. They need nearly perfect conditions and this is pretty close to ideal. The only thing missing is a deeper warm layer, but that's pretty difficult to calculate without looking at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This is a great setup for an ice storm for this area. They need nearly perfect conditions and this is pretty close to ideal. The only thing missing is a deeper warm layer, but that's pretty difficult to calculate without looking at soundings.Imagine a major ice storm followed immediately by a snowstorm? Not something I'd look forward to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You can believe it or not believe it but the 18z 4K NAM has this coming in as sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Heavy, heavy sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Winter weather advisories posted for most of the area. Exceptions are Monmouth and Eastern Suffolk Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Rgem is a pretty substantial sleet storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Rgem is a pretty substantial sleet storm: Yeah, that's almost 0.40" LE as sleet. Using the standard 2:1 ratio that would be around 0.80" of sleet accumulation. I've been saying all day that the predominant precip type with this looks to be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, that's almost 0.40" LE as sleet. Using the standard 2:1 ratio that would be around 0.80" of sleet accumulation. I've been saying all day that the predominant precip type with this looks to be sleet. IP vs Zr is very hard to discern, even for models. You said were missing a deeper warm layer, which is true; but an ice storm, imo, is certainly a possibility right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 IP vs Zr is very hard to discern, even for models. You said were missing a deeper warm layer, which is true; but an ice storm, imo, is certainly a possibility right now. I've been relying on the higher res NAM/RGEM for determining precip type. They have both been very good the last few weeks. It helps you pick out a warm layer when it's not terribly obvious. For ZR I think you want warm 925mb temps but I could be wrong, it's a very complicated equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I've been relying on the higher res NAM/RGEM for determining precip type. They have both been very good the last few weeks. It helps you pick out a warm layer when it's not terribly obvious. For ZR I think you want warm 925mb temps but I could be wrong, it's a very complicated equation. The rgem has been pretty deadly this year, and the NAM, especially the Hi Res has its uses at times, inside of 24hrs. For what I've been instructed, the warm layer is usually between h9/95 so, yes, 925 would be that sneaky warm layer. I've also been instructed that you generally want it around +2c for ideal conditions for Zr. Likewise, I've been taught that a warm 850 and cold 925 is IP.Edit : But yes, the equation is complicated to saw the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z RGEM totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z nam got interesting as far as snow goes...about .25-.4 region wide before 850s go over 0.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Includes sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 How's the rgem look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z nam got interesting as far as snow goes...about .25-.4 region wide before 850s go over 0.... most of that is sleet, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is interesting...21Z and 00Z RPM cooled off significantly with a lot more snow on the front end. This feels to me like the grand finale of a great fireworks shows. 2 warning events (possible) and 1 advisory event in less than 4 days. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs has 2-4 for the city and nw burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Probably another quick burst of snow that rapidly goes over to sleet. This time however it'll eventually change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 01.pngLooks like snow won't be the story with this one if that's correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like snow won't be the story with this one if that's correct It was never supposed to be. Snow to ice to rain for most. It probably will have a hard time changing to rain for the NW crew. A quick 1-2" for the nyc area and 2-4" for the nw crew. Well that's at least my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It was never supposed to be. Snow to ice to rain for most. It probably will have a hard time changing to rain for the NW crew. Yep. Looks like 1-2 inches for the city before a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Think today could surprise some people with 2-4" of heavy snow then ice/sleet....everyone focused on next storm but models are trending to more of a snow/sleet thump with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Most are getting an inch or less maybe 2 to the north...it will be more sleet than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Most are getting an inch or less maybe 2 to the north...it will be more sleet than anything else EURO GEM RGEM 4KNAM GFS UKMET are all 2 at KNYC .... Where`s the rest of the " MOST " If you are going to post here , stop posting %^&* , making people have to check your work does not lead to gaining credibility . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 HRRR has 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 EURO GEM RGEM 4KNAM GFS UKMET are all 2 at KNYC .... Where`s the rest of the " MOST " If you are going to post here , stop posting %^&* , making people have to check your work does not lead to gaining credibility . This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This. I mean If it was his opinion then that's cool. But if you are quoting model output to be fair it shows 2 . I just had to go through 850s 700 a and 925s on 5 models to see if was missing something. The UKMET 4 is prob wrong but there is a lot of agreement that it's 2 then sleet over to rain. Then we see how far N the axis of heaviest snow gets fur Thrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs showing 4-6 of snow for northwest jersey and soundings support it . That would be a pleasant surprise to over achieve for once if Gfs was right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Fool me once shame on me. I'm not underestimating the warming aloft and any snow will be very little as mid levels torch quickly. The real question is the surface, if it ends up a bit colder than ice problems will be present. Certainly those in the NW will be dealing with this more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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