NaoPos Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hour 36 at KNYC 850 -7 BL 29 . That map is wrong . It is snow at that hour I think the warm nose is above 850. Could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 RGEM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 And be careful at hour 39 at KNYC 850s -2 BL 33 . When was the last time you saw the BL warm 4 degrees in 3 hours being -2 at 850 over snow cover . That rain map is wrong . PROB still sleeting at KNYC and snowing W of EWR You can't just look at 850's and BL temps. Their must be another warm layer in there that's not terribly obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 And I found it, warm layer is around 700mb This is why the maps have mostly sleet instead of freezing rain. Relatively narrow warm layer, but there nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 RGEM anyone? It has snow even at the coast til like 00Z then sleet til 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 It has snow even at the coast til like 00Z then sleet til 03z What kind of snow accums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 And I found it, warm layer is around 700mb This is why the maps have mostly sleet instead of freezing rain. Relatively narrow warm layer, but there nevertheless. Yep, hence the sleet and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That looks like a rain sounding to my untrained eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looking at 700mb temps doesn't tell the whole story. The warm layer arrives sometime between hrs 36 and 39, maybe a tad sooner since models don't give us the entire profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That looks like a rain sounding to my untrained eye... Only one warm layer , looks like sleet to me as like I posted the BL will not go from 29 to 33 in 3 hours with 850`s - 2 You have to look outside the model . I argued 36 and he posted an hour 39 map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Only one warm layer , looks like sleet to me as like I posted the BL will not go from 29 to 33 in 3 hours with 850`s - 2 You have to look outside the model . I argued 36 and he posted an hour 39 map . The surface wouldn't influence sleet vs. liquid rain, though. 0C to 5C from 700 to 850 mb isn't exactly a negligible sliver of the column. Not a huge deal either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The surface wouldn't influence sleet vs. liquid rain, though. 0C to 5C from 700 to 850 mb isn't exactly a negligible sliver of the column. Not a huge deal either way. Thanks ....... The BL comment was to the Rain the 4k NAM painted around Staten Island . My take is 36 could be snow and 39 sleet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Guys this is an inch or two of snow then sleet and freezing rain, nonsense bs event, don't argue over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Anyway, I don't see much plain rain out of this except for South of Rt. 78, and even then shouldn't be much. A few hours of snow and then over to sleet and then ending as some light freezing rain or rain, depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Also, dending on how quickly things move, or slowly for that matter, might not end up being much of a break at all on Wednesday between the rain and the rain from the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z GFS has the ice/sleet combo, then rain. Less than 0.25" LE before the changeover and probably only 0.10" or so as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ggem is about 1-2 to ice. Not bad for a flooding cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Temps rise into the 40's at all on the GGEM/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nope looks like upper 30's at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The snowpack is going to take a hit regardless of surface temps. I had puddles in my driveway on Saturday and temps never broke 30F. That's what the sun can do and why it's so difficult to maintain a snowpack in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 EURO? Mostly sleet/freezing rain. A little snow on the front end and a little plain rain at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Mostly sleet/freezing rain. A little snow on the front end and a little plain rain at the very end.I haven't had a chance to look.. Are we talking ice storm warning criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I haven't had a chance to look.. Are we talking ice storm warning criteria? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The Euro is south with the rain on Wednesday, mostly over C and SNJ. Not too worried about that as it's bumping around every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Probably not.Ty brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 euro 1-2 for the area then sleet/frz rain... north of nyc 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That looks like a ZR sounding to me. Warm layer too deep for sleet. On the other hand that is not for certain because the sub freezing layer below 850 might generate it's own snizzle which might help some of those raindrops freeze. Without something already frozen to help them freeze, the raindrops will supercool but do not freeze falling through the cold layer. IP/ZR is complicated stuff...so take my opinions with a grain of salt. EDIT: ZR or maybe even plain rain. Looks like the surface is above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That looks like a ZR sounding to me. Warm layer too deep for sleet. On the other hand that is not for certain because the sub freezing layer below 850 might generate it's own snizzle which might help some of those raindrops freeze. Without something already frozen to help them freeze, the raindrops will supercool but do not freeze falling through the cold layer. IP/ZR is complicated stuff...so take my opinions with a grain of salt. EDIT: ZR or maybe even plain rain. Looks like the surface is above freezing. To me that's plain rn. Temps at surface look to be 34/35 with a veering wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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