Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Most models coming around to 1-2" of snow on tej front end , the ice/rain, questions remain on how warm it gets and how much plain rain areas receive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Most models coming around to 1-2" of snow on tej front end , the ice/rain, questions remain on how warm it gets and how much plain rain areas receive Shouldn't this thread be for 3/3 to 3/4? The 3/4 to 3/5 event is a potential snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So let me get this straight ..tue..snow to rain ..then wed day time ..rain ..then night mix ..then maybe snow Thur ?? Is that summary correct ..?? Yes...but I think we should separate the 2 events as otherwise it will be confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Corrected....3/3-3/4 in title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Corrected....3/3-3/4 in title Great. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So ..if Gfs. Shows possible snow Thur ..then I think thread should be started for that potential . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So ..if Gfs. Shows possible snow Thur ..then I think thread should be started for that potential . Yea....true. At least get it going by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Rgem at hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Guys, FWIW my point and click forecast for Melville LI has me getting 3-7 inches of snow between onset Tues afternoon and the changeover by midnight Weds AM. Not sure I believe that. Have we been trending in that direction? I thought this was mainly a rainstorm a few days ago and folks were throwing around the possibility of hitting 60. Is a complete torch off the table now? Thanks in advance for replies. -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Guys, FWIW my point and click forecast for Melville LI has me getting 3-7 inches of snow between onset Tues afternoon and the changeover by midnight Weds AM. Not sure I believe that. Have we been trending in that direction? I thought this was mainly a rainstorm a few days ago and folks were throwing around the possibility of hitting 60. Is a complete torch off the table now? Thanks in advance for replies. -Jason I'm seeing that too south of you. For one thing, an 80% 'chance' of snow is usually characterized as 'likely.' Let's see if that is still there in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm seeing that too south of you. For one thing, an 80% 'chance' of snow is usually characterized as 'likely.' Let's see if that is still there in the am.it's an error upton has me 3-5 inches Tues eve. Not happening. Thursday a very different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro is pretty nasty with the ice Wed morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 To show you how cold this system is @ KNYC and the coast 6z 4K NAM Hour 42 850 - 6 BL 27 .1 Hour 45 850 - 2 KNYC -1 Monmouth County - 4 LI BL KNYC 32 LI 33- 34 .2 FALLS .2 inches of snow Hour 48 + 8 BL 34 KNYC 36 LI .2 falls as rain . NW its all frozen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 At what point should we start a new thread for Thur potential snow ? I think by 12z if it still shows potential ..other opinions ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 At what point should we start a new thread for Thur potential snow ? I think by 12z if it still shows potential ..other opinions ?? 12z runs . Get inside 72 hours in this pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z runs . Get inside 72 hours in this pattern .PB I hope you start thread I have feeling you will bring us luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 PB I hope you start thread I have feeling you will bring us luck Never started a thread , I want to keep the streak going . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 The big question is how warm does it get with this storm in the warm sector. Nam looks really warm, with 850s at +10 or so for a time, but maybe the surface can hang on to 30s to around 40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The big question is how warm does it get with this storm in the warm sector. Nam looks really warm, with 850s at +10 or so for a time, but maybe the surface can hang on to 30s to around 40?Upton is still thinking mid-40's up here in Rockland on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Upton is still thinking mid-40's up here in Rockland on Wednesday Warmest 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6 z 4K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Upton is still thinking mid-40's up here in Rockland on Wednesday Not happening THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW... APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER. DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GEM-LAM total snowfall through 06Z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 4-5hrs of snow on Tuesday afternoon and then over to sleet and or freezing rain all areas by 00z and then over to plain rain in the city by 03z and NW areas by 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 4-5hrs of snow on Tuesday afternoon and then over to sleet and or freezing rain all areas by 00z and then over to plain rain in the city by 03z and NW areas by 06z. Yup, the big thing with this storm is between maybe the 1-2" of new snow we get, then mix, the (relative mildness/rain) what effect will it have on snowpack. Probably a slight loss, but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yup, the big thing with this storm is between maybe the 1-2" of new snow we get, then mix, the (relative mildness/rain) what effect will it have on snowpack. Probably a slight loss, but nothing major. It's hard to tell how much of whatever falls over the next 4-5 days will be plain rain. One thing for sure, Tuesday night looks to be snow to a mix for all sections and Thursday looks like mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 New NAM has about 0.25" falling before the changeover. Maybe 2-3" of new snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 12z 4k NAM has this almost entirely sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 12z 4k NAM has this almost entirely sleet. Hour 36 at KNYC 850 -7 BL 29 . That map is wrong . It is snow at that hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 And be careful at hour 39 at KNYC 850s -2 BL 33 . When was the last time you saw the BL warm 4 degrees in 3 hours being -2 at 850 over snow cover . That rain map is wrong . PROB still sleeting at KNYC and snowing W of EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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