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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Late Winter/Early Spring 2015


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Oddly I feel a little better about Thursday's forecast than tomorrow's, ha.  Light-moderate snow possible Thursday morning into the midday hours as shortwave approaches from the west.  Potentially 1-3" on Thursday on top of whatever falls Wed. afternoon-night.

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Taken from the Accuweather Forum...

 

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM AND ECMWF

...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST...
...COLD FRONT SETTLING THROUGH THE EAST...
...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE 12Z UKMET/12Z NAM AND 12Z GEM ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
GENERALLY A BIT FASTER AND ESPECIALLY AS IT RELATES TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST LATE WED THROUGH THURS. THE UKMET/NAM
AND GEM THOUGH HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER/SUPPRESSED GFS/ECMWF AS WELL. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CROSS THE OH VALLEY BY LATE THURS
AND THEN THE NORTHEAST THURS NIGHT. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
AND SHOULD TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURS BEFORE EJECTING RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA.
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF OVERALL HAVE BETTER CONTINUITY AND
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...INCLUDING THAT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z
ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AT
THIS TIME.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OHZ057>059-PAZ021-029-073-074-WVZ002-003-040400-
/O.EXP.KPBZ.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-150303T2000Z/
/O.EXA.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.150304T2100Z-150305T2100Z/
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-BROOKE-OHIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...
ST. CLAIRSVILLE...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...
GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...BETHAN
...WHEELING
255 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE.

* SNOW BEGINNING...LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

* SNOW ENDING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER
WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA.

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