colonel717 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What time will possible changeovers happen Tommrow ?? I guess the earlier the better like in all cases? Based on that DT map posted earlier with the start times, it was to change over early afternoon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Based on that DT map posted earlier with the start times, it was to change over early afternoon tomorrow. Ok thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bust potential with this but also huge upside still too. Latest plumes show one with 25 inches and another over 15 inches.. Not that one should take the high plumes seriously, but just used to show such a spread still so close to the event. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150303&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PIT&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.40474483300283&mLON=-80.07807644411957&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bust potential with this but also huge upside still too. Latest plumes show one with 25 inches and another over 15 inches.. Not that one should take the high plumes seriously, but just used to show such a spread still so close to the event. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150303&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PIT&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.40474483300283&mLON=-80.07807644411957&mTYP=roadmap[/quot Nice. I think evreyone happy with 5-12. Any were in there happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm expecting a NAM \ GFS compromise, so I expect to see the NAM slowly come down from those ridiculous high totals and also shift a bit SE but also think the GFS should continue to tick NW. Euro is actually a pretty reasonable compromise between the 2. I think we would all take that and be happy. If this storm does happen it will also be nice to know we are getting colder as the storm progresses rather than worrying about a warm up and flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm expecting a NAM \ GFS compromise, so I expect to see the NAM slowly come down from those ridiculous high totals and also shift a bit SE but also think the GFS should continue to tick NW. Euro is actually a pretty reasonable compromise between the 2. I think we would all take that and be happy. If this storm does happen it will also be nice to know we are getting colder as the storm progresses rather than worrying about a warm up and flip to rain. Agreed. It is only one model but this next 10 minutes of the NAM should tell us where we are going. If it can just hold serve we will all be happy. I'll take a fringe of 4 inches or so and no 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The thing that still scares me is the sharp cutoff to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I will take NAM at 54 for 1000 Alex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The thing that still scares me is the sharp cutoff to the north. One more shift SE and its fringe ville for most of us... NAM was really less amped this time around which was expected but there was still part of me hoping it looked like 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The thing that still scares me is the sharp cutoff to the north.I hear ya.If there was ever a thread the needle type storm regarding significant snow, this would be it. The NAM has stood it's ground so far. Will it verify ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Just a couple ticks north and lock it in. That cutoff is scary, definitely holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM scares me but its a complicated setup and bust potentional is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow! Impressive snow totals being shown for places south of Pittsburgh. This looks like a legitimate big dog. Surprised there are no watches out yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow! Impressive snow totals being shown for places south of Pittsburgh. This looks like a legitimate big dog. Surprised there are no watches out yet... Late afternoon. They have to see the 12z suites first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM is ticking south, and the GFS is still south. I am not liking what I am seeing, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM is ticking south, and the GFS is still south. I am not liking what I am seeing, to be honest.Man I hope u r rong ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM is ticking south, and the GFS is still south. I am not liking what I am seeing, to be honest. NAM has been the northern outlier the entire time. It is just coming more in line with the other guidance. The GFS has actually trended better for our area over the last day. We will find out shortly with the 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM close up looks like 6-9 for AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Please one time when we need a tick north at 1030 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM close up looks like 6-9 for AGC Not to be negative but as good as that looks there is no wiggle room to the north. Butler County goes 1-5 and if the next 24 hours shift 75 miles south that will be Allegheny County. 12Z GFS, Canadian and Euro will all be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Cut the NAM in half and you probably have a more reasonable amount as of now. Someone said channel 11 was going with 3-5. I'm not even sure that is going to happen, but it's more likely than 6-9, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 RadarScope's Precipitation Depiction product seems to work very well in SW PA. Best $9.99 I ever spent. I notice it is as close to spot on as any other radar I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM close up looks like 6-9 for AGC That actually looks to be in pretty good agreement with last night 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What's thunderhead thinking for this storm???he might be waiting to see all 12 z suits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Further south trends expected.... Our favorite player in these winter storms, another SW US psuedo-cutoff near Baja is not opening up into a wave as fast as expected (normal model bias I've talked about). Because it's slower to open, its slower to turn into the "cork" and join the southern stream. This energy is what forms the surface wave which rides the boundary. Since it's a little later, this allows the preamble, i.e., the cold air (and the boundry) to sag 30 miles or so further south this run. Until this opens up, the potential for this trend continues on later runs. ST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Were gonna be fringed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What's thunderhead thinking for this storm???he might be waiting to see all 12 z suits It's still early, imo - forecasts made this evening will matter much more to the public. Just viewed the 0z Euro, and to me it's showing a light snow event for PIT during Wed. afternoon-evening. Strongest signal for heavy snow/banding is over WV just south of the PA border (i.e. PKB, MGW) attm. Caution reading QPF maps if you're in a tight gradient zone. I would go lower than what it shows for your town if you're in a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs shows 6 inches for alg county, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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