RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM looks amazing for later this week. If the GFS were biting on this I'd feel better about it. My gut says this may end up further SE than what the NAM shows. We definitely want the cold front to be slow, so if a stronger wave can develop along it that may help to slow it down. 00z wise, the UKMET, NAM, and Canadian would all be a solid snowfall. I didn't see what the Euro had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like NWS isn't putting much weight into these big solutions either: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONTRACING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING AQUICK END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE A QUIET BUTCOLD END TO THE WEEK. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...BUTBY SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES AS MODEL SOLUTIONSSEPARATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If only this was tomorrow. Makes me nervous some guidance is south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If only this was tomorrow. Makes me nervous some guidance is south east. Yeah, if we miss its going to be to the SE, or just no wave develops in the first place. NAM is SE from 00z and 06z but still is a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hey thunder that gfs was right on the money with the rain line poping up. This far north I got 2 inches. Good call boss ,,,/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like NWS isn't putting much weight into these big solutions either: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT RACING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE A QUIET BUT COLD END TO THE WEEK. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS SEPARATE. This might very well be the case - but factually incorrect at this point. "Most" of the models show the sig storm idea, not front racing off the coast. Could be a sign of increased GFS confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This might very well be the case - but factually incorrect at this point. "Most" of the models show the sig storm idea, not front racing off the coast. Could be a sign of increased GFS confidence Yeah that part about most models had me scratching my head too. Anyways, 12z GFS is better looking for sure vs previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I swear if this thing misses us to the south again I am gonna lose it. I may move away to a tropical island and cut all contact with technology. With that being said the GFS is coming into alignment with the other models. Hopefully we can get the last minute north shift ala 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 5 products issued by NWS for: Pittsburgh PA Flood WatchFLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1111 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015...The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a floodwatch for the following rivers in Pennsylvania...West Virginia... Monongahela River Near Charleroi affecting Fayette...Washington and Westmoreland Counties Monongahela River Near Elizabeth affecting Allegheny...Washington and Westmoreland Counties Cheat River At Rowlesburg affecting Preston County. A low pressure system developing today in the Southwest UnitedStates will sweep eastward over the next 36 to 48 hours bringingwidespread precipitation to our region. Across the Monongahela andCheat river basins, the precipitation is expected to fall primarilyas rain. Rainfall amounts anticipated at this time across theseriver basins are expected to range from 1.00 to 1.75 inches.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...SAFETY MESSAGE...a watch means that flooding is possible but not acertainty. rainfall of 1.50 inches to 2.00 may cause flooding.actual rainfall amounts and potential flooding will ultimately dependon the direction and speed of the storm. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREASHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATEACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A RIVER FLOOD WARNINGBE ISSUED.&&PAC003-125-129-031611-/O.NEW.KPBZ.FL.A.0002.150305T1044Z-150306T0645Z//ELZP1.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/1111 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a* Flood Watch for The Monongahela River Near Elizabeth* from late Wednesday night to late Thursday night.* At 10:15 AM Monday the stage was 11.4 feet.* Minor flooding is possible.* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.* Forecast...Flood stage may be reached by Thursday morning.$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 UKMet I think that is yesterdays run, says initialized Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think that is yesterdays run, says initialized Sunday. I see on the bottom it said it initialized Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I see on the bottom it said it initialized Monday Ah yes you are right. I was seeing a cached image for some reason. CTRL+F5 fixed it for me. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 I get the funny feeling that this is going to be a rain changing to snow scenario with most of the moisture gone by the time the front moves through and it changes over. Seen it play out like that many times over the years. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 A small minute tick everyday and we are golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 A small minute tick everyday and we are golden I'd take that map as is and call it a winter at this point. General 5-8 inches would be nice to lock in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I get the funny feeling that this is going to be a rain changing to snow scenario with most of the moisture gone by the time the front moves through and it changes over. Seen it play out like that many times over the years. Hope I'm wrong. You could be right, but given this is a wave riding up the cold front I think it would take the front getting stalled pretty far NW of what most guidance has now to allow that to happen. I'm more concerned about a wiff to the SE still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'd take that map as is and call it a winter at this point. General 5-8 inches would be nice to lock in now. true and I am also worry about a SE hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 9 products issued by NWS for: Pittsburgh PA Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA241 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015PAZ007-013-014-020>023-073-074-030300-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0019.150303T1700Z-150304T0000Z/MERCER-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GROVE CITY...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL241 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM NOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO .05 INCH.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH.* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY.* SNOW/ICE ENDING...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW...SLEET AND ICE COVERED ROADS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZINGRAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ANDREPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEBY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOKPAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm more concerned about a wiff to the SE still. Yeah, that could definitely happen as well. We're still going to get a mix to rain tomorrow into Wednesday from the first low tracking well to our west. After that, we just have to hope for good timing to get a track that gives us some decent snow Wednesday night. A lot of things have to work in our favor once again for this to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ah, man! The 18z NAM is keeping me out of the party now. Hope this doesn't turn out to be an I80 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Raining in blairsville. 34 degrees. This was the snapshot I took from my phone while driving in rain back from Johnstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Meanwhile in the midatlantic forum people are about to slit eachothers throats over a 60+ hr NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'd like this storm to be oriented a bit more N-S. More gulf moisture, plus we tend to do better historically with said oriented ana-fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wow, 18z NAM is eye candy! 1.06 qpf at kagc, 1.04 is snow! 18z GFS still hates us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This was the snapshot I took from my phone while driving in rain back from Johnstown. RadarScope's Precipitation Depiction product seems to work very well in SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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