colonel717 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 http://vencoreweather.com/2015/03/10/930-am-winter-like-pattern-to-resume-after-spring-break/ *Winter-like pattern to resume after “spring break”* Discussion Overview This break in our recent cold and stormy weather pattern will continue to provide us with glimpses of spring-like warmth over the next 7 to 10 days or so, but the signs for a return to a winter-like pattern in the Northeast US are rather convincing. There are numerous signals that point to a period of colder-than-normal weather in the Northeast US for the last third of March and the beginning third of April (roughly March 20-April 10) and it is quite likely to include more threats of snow. These signals that suggest there will be a return to a winter-like pattern are described below and involve such things as the Madden Julian Oscillation, stratospheric warming, 500 millibar height anomalies, and the Arctic Oscillation index. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection. The MJO has wide ranging impacts on the patterns of tropical and extratropical precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and surface temperature around the global tropics and subtropics. Furthermore, the MJO influences both precipitation and surface temperature patterns across the US. Specifically, one significant impact of the MJO in the U.S. during the northern hemisphere winter is an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold air outbreaks across the central and eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 http://vencoreweather.com/2015/03/10/930-am-winter-like-pattern-to-resume-after-spring-break/ *Winter-like pattern to resume after “spring break”* Discussion Overview This break in our recent cold and stormy weather pattern will continue to provide us with glimpses of spring-like warmth over the next 7 to 10 days or so, but the signs for a return to a winter-like pattern in the Northeast US are rather convincing. There are numerous signals that point to a period of colder-than-normal weather in the Northeast US for the last third of March and the beginning third of April (roughly March 20-April 10) and it is quite likely to include more threats of snow. These signals that suggest there will be a return to a winter-like pattern are described below and involve such things as the Madden Julian Oscillation, stratospheric warming, 500 millibar height anomalies, and the Arctic Oscillation index. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection. The MJO has wide ranging impacts on the patterns of tropical and extratropical precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and surface temperature around the global tropics and subtropics. Furthermore, the MJO influences both precipitation and surface temperature patterns across the US. Specifically, one significant impact of the MJO in the U.S. during the northern hemisphere winter is an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold air outbreaks across the central and eastern US. Nice write up. With the way this cold been this winter. I wouldn't be suprised if we wee cold in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Nice write up. With the way this cold been this winter. I wouldn't be suprised if we wee cold in June. Yeah we will be tracking a major KU Father's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Lots of discussion about winter returning. Seeing lots mets excited about the modeled pattern, it would be one we would die for in Dec, January or Feb lol. I just hope its not wasted given we will be heading into the latter part of March when it sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 To me the OP GFS long range is the same ole pattern. Southern stream squashed, northern stream right on top of us. I don't see anything special about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Just took a 3 mile walk. Wow is it beautiful out 60 and sunny. Get out and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Just took a 3 mile walk. Wow is it beautiful out 60 and sunny. Get out and enjoy. Yes, and as I feared, I don't want snow or any more cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Well I knew we would get snow at the end of march when i didnt want it. Although this a time I'd be thrilled to get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 17, 2015 Author Share Posted March 17, 2015 Well I knew we would get snow at the end of march when i didnt want it. Although this a time I'd be thrilled to get fringed. Don't worry, I'm sure we're probably still going to get fringed. lol We'll just unfortunately get the colder air to follow which I don't care to see anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Don't worry, I'm sure we're probably still going to get fringed. lol We'll just unfortunately get the colder air to follow which I don't care to see anymore. Nothing would sum this winter up better than us getting fringed and NJ getting a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Looking like yesterdays 00Z GFS was likely a blip for the next Tue-Wed threat for now. Still early though. Too bad because the 500mb map was about as nice as I've seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Next Tuesday-Wednesday could be in the 50's as of now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Interesting pattern setting up for late March no doubt though. I'm a bit surprised at how easy it was for me to give up model watching this year, though I am getting pulled back in a bit for this upcoming setup. Usually I claw and scrape for any scraps that resemble snow, maybe I'm just getting old lol Really this time of year I want 55-75 degrees or 8-12+ qpf bomb snow storm. Anything else just gets annoying. Next Tuesday-Wednesday could be in the 50's as of now.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 A bit suprised to see ice still on the side of the road in the shade. Ground temps are colder than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 For weenie eyes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 For weenie eyes only. Is this for the same storm the CMC showed as a mini snowmageddon redux. Like I said we are gonna get fringed and I will just sit here and laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Is this for the same storm the CMC showed as a mini snowmageddon redux. Like I said we are gonna get fringed and I will just sit here and laugh.Yeah, the CMC was also showing a storm during that time period.The GFS and Euro still aren't too bullish on said storm. This weekend will be interesting to see which models begin moving toward the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Yeah, the CMC was also showing a storm during that time period. The GFS and Euro still aren't too bullish on said storm. This weekend will be interesting to see which models begin moving toward the other. I will keep an eye open but I won't get sucked in like usual. Especially since I canceled my weather model subscription for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I will keep an eye open but I won't get sucked in like usual. Especially since I canceled my weather model subscription for the year.I hear ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I give Robert Morris a better shot at winning ncaa tourney than us getting 10 plus inches. weather is like sports you have to play them to see the outcome because you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Southeast PA may see a major snowstorm and we are looking at cold rain! Hahaha it never ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Southeast PA may see a major snowstorm and we are looking at cold rain! Hahaha it never ends. lol, we can't even do winter right in the Spring. But really, missing a snowstorm in late March stings much less than late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 lol, we can't even do winter right in the Spring. But really, missing a snowstorm in late March stings much less than late February. I completely agree and theres always next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 lol, we can't even do winter right in the Spring. But really, missing a snowstorm in late March stings much less than late February.Lol yeah I know.It's unusual to get these transfer/CAD storms this late in the season. Although this has been the pattern all winter, so I guess it shouldn't be much of a suprise. This is a bit OT, but sometimes I wonder if the Apps weren't there, and everybody in the state/ region was between 1200-1400 ft asl. Would the absence of CAD help our snow amounts by allowing more sustained cold air to established itself here in the metro. Or would the effects be more in central and eastern pa, by allowing more warm air to overtake those areas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Moderate snow here and down to 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Lol yeah I know. It's unusual to get these transfer/CAD storms this late in the season. Although this has been the pattern all winter, so I guess it shouldn't be much of a suprise. This is a bit OT, but sometimes I wonder if the Apps weren't there, and everybody in the state/ region was between 1200-1400 ft asl. Would the absence of CAD help our snow amounts by allowing more sustained cold air to established itself here in the metro. Or would the effects be more in central and eastern pa, by allowing more warm air to overtake those areas ? I think yes if the mountains were to the west. Then we would get the Cad-ing. That said we would get much less LES and clipper type systems would fizzle more often. So there is trade off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Snowing hard and my car is covered. Almost makes me wish for one more KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Pure elevation event. Solid covering on the hilltops (1200 ft) Nothing on the grass below 800 ft. I was hoping to see some fat parachutes, so I'm happy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Pure elevation event. Solid covering on the hilltops (1200 ft) Nothing on the grass below 800 ft. I was hoping to see some fat parachutes, so I'm happy.. I am at a higher elevation. Picked up about 3/4 of an inch and most of it is already melting. Should be gone in the next few hours. Fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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