jwilson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Seeing as I'm out of town, the hit was bound to happen. The weather just knows when I'm not around haha. That said, the NAM is probably too wet; it almost always is. Gave me 10"+ of snow for that slop-fest two weekends ago where we got 3" and rain. This is a very peculiar storm, though, so honestly who knows where the narrow band of snow is going to end up north or south. I'm inclined to blend the GFS/GGEM/CMC with some Euro sprinkles. Anecdotally it seems as though the GFS has been the best model in this weird pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If we can get this over to snow by mid morning, the NAM throws well over 1" QPF up that Mon Valley Screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 From latest NWS outlook: A TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE COLDFRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BELIMITED BY INEFFICIENT WITH SNOW RATIOS AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION ISEXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY HAS BEENCONTINUED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ZANESVILLE TOINDIANA LINE...BUT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE ANDASCENT BEHIND THE WAVE SLOWED FRONTAL ZONE IS CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLEAND AN ADDITIONAL SET OF MODEL RUNS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR BETTERRESOLUTION. I already knew north of the city was going to be a miss, but hopefully south of Pittsburgh can cash in with 6+ inches... That sharp cutoff is worrying on the models though. It's not going to take much for this to be a miss, at least for Allegheny county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 10 products issued by NWS for: Pittsburgh PA Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA924 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015MDZ001-OHZ057>059-068-069-PAZ021-023-029-031-073>076-WVZ002>004-012-021>023-041-041030-/O.CON.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.150304T2100Z-150305T2100Z/GARRETT-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-ALLEGHENY-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...KINGWOOD...PARSONS924 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 6 INCHES. UP TO 8 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* SNOW BEGINNING...LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.* SNOW ENDING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICEACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTERWEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Were we supposed to get up to nearly 50° or did the temps go higher than forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Were we supposed to get up to nearly 50° or did the temps go higher than forecasted?They weren't supposed to go this high. This typically happens ahead of fronts though. They underestimate the southerly flow ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 They weren't supposed to go this high. This typically happens ahead of fronts though. They underestimate the southerly flow ahead of the front. Yeah. That is what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 They weren't supposed to go this high. This typically happens ahead of fronts though. They underestimate the southerly flow ahead of the front. That water laden snow pack is really holding on despite the near 50 degree and pouring rain. The frozen ground is probably helping though. Even places in my yard that we rolled snow balls and only had about an inch on it are still covered. I expect some bare spots tomorrow morning, but if we still have a coating of snow and we switch to snow early even if the surface temps are above freezing its going to start piling up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 00z NAM looks a hair North with the precip shield compared to 18z... or am I just going crazy now? Map from central PA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 00z NAM looks a hair North with the precip shield compared to 18z... or am I just going crazy now? Map from central PA thread. here is a better one i made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS. Eek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS. Eek. Yep, absolutely awful. It shears out the whole system even before it gets to the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Its not *that* bad. In fact like the NAM it pushes 1"+ QPF into extreme SW pa from 7:00 AM tomorrow on. Of course its tight with counties to the north and you wonder when the changeover. But its not a disaster - i think its status quo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow just go outside and feel how warm it "feels". Usually in october we would be saying its chilly. Anyway this making me want spring more and more. Anyway congrats to our southern friends and hopefully more of our subforum can get a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well Euro you just made things quite interesting Bam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think everyone in this thread would be satisfied with this outcome: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Its snowing now. Looks like the short term models nailed the our area with the early snow. Now do we get any accumulation from this, we'll see. Hope that the EURO verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Its snowing now. Looks like the short term models nailed the our area with the early snow. Now do we get any accumulation from this, we'll see. Hope that the EURO verifies. Yeah, our decent snow chances are dying a slow death.We need our former king to save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow, its starting to stick to the roads already. My driveway is all white. Props to the short term models so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow, its starting to stick to the roads already. My driveway is all white. Props to the short term models so far. I was surprised, woke up to a fresh quarter inch of slush. Roads were covered, had to brush the car off. By the time I got into Greensburg though it was mainly just rain, so I'm guessing the front hasn't made it all the way through here yet. Hopefully the Euro scores a coup for once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I was surprised, woke up to a fresh quarter inch of slush. Roads were covered, had to brush the car off. By the time I got into Greensburg though it was mainly just rain, so I'm guessing the front hasn't made it all the way through here yet. Hopefully the Euro scores a coup for once this winter. Seemed like once sunrise came, it turned briefly back to rain. Back to snow now. I am setting my expectations at 3 inches. EURO hasn't brought me any confidence this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Roads are horrible out this way. 30 from Laughlintown to Jennerstown is being shut down. Cars are all over the place. It's been sleeting for last 2 hours at least. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hahahaha wow are we even going to get advisory criteria snow at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hahahaha wow are we even going to get advisory criteria snow at this point? What r u talking about it takes time to switch over I'm at 33 still. And the moisture is from pa down to Texas. So it's gonna snow for 30 more hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What r u talking about it takes time to switch over I'm at 33 still. And the moisture is from pa down to Texas. So it's gonna snow for 30 more hrs. So naive. The front is gonna sag the moisture south. HRR and RUC already blew it with the false wave this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Think there will be a 6-8 hour break, but by this evening everyone should be seeing snow. I don't think we were suppose to get accumulating snows until after sun set tonight anyways. So this is a bonus. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NOAA says moisture will not stop till Tommrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We shall see I hope your right but I just don't see it. Plus I am giving you a hard time. I know we will get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.