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March 4th-6th Winter Storm


Powerball

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Looks like Lexington and Eastern Kentucky got a decent snow. Nothing major though. I was seven at the time so I don't remember the event.

 

Yeah second low went wide right, sort of speak.

 

First low on the 7th went overtop LAF...and then the second one on the 8th went east of the Apps.

 

 

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Yeah second low went wide right, sort of speak.

 

First low on the 7th went overtop LAF...and then the second one on the 8th went east of the Apps.

 

Interesting. The second low must have been non-existent when it was in middle Tennesse or didn't deepen until it went past the apps.

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This map won't win a popularity contest in Ohio, but here goes :P

 

post-525-0-89543900-1425410544_thumb.png

 

(I reserve the right to adjust a little Wednesday morning)

 

When looking over the 0z and 12z model runs and observations from this morning, it appears the trend is for a slightly weaker and slower cut-off ejecting out of the southwest, and also the shortwave moving into the Great Lakes on Wednesday coming in a little quicker. This all argues for the heaviest swath of snow shifting farther southeast. The 0z GFS captured this considerably better than the 0z NAM. Considering the cut-off still isn’t well sampled, and considering CIPS analog guidance suggests it is very difficult to get heavy snow in the Ohio Valley with this setup, I’m expecting an additional slight bump to the south with tonight’s 0z runs…hopefully I adjusted the map far enough south.

 

As for exact placement of the amounts, the 12z NAM/GFS/Euro all suggest that 8”+ is very likely across much of southern Ohio. Even with an additional bump south on these models, 8”+ would still likely occur along and just north of the river. Although the NAM and Euro (and even the GFS BUFKIT output) along with several SREF members suggest amounts of up to 15” are possible, I believe that these amounts (if they even occur at all) will be just south of Ohio, as this is where the best mid-level isentropic lift is shown during the storm Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In Ohio, there is still tremendous lift from the right-entrance quadrant of a 200+ knot upper level jet streak from Wednesday PM through Thursday evening, along with high PWATs for a winter storm situation (greater than 0.8” Wednesday evening falling to 0.6” by Thursday morning)…this great upper level lift and high PWAT combo when combined with the duration of the snows (12-15 hours in southern Ohio) and improving snow ratios during the second half of the storm suggests that amounts of up to a foot are possible just north of the Ohio River.

 

There is good agreement among the Euro/NAM in eroding any mid-level warm layer by Wednesday evening across southern Ohio, with the GFS a few hours faster than that. Most SREF members agree…a few members show rain hanging on in southern OH through much of Wednesday night which shows up in p-type probability plots and skews the mean snow down at sites such as PKB and CVG, however, these members show a ridiculously far north and strong storm track and are being discounted. All in all, feel as though a delayed changeover to snow isn’t a large enough risk to cut down on snow amounts much in southern Ohio.

 

A very strong northern cut-off to the snow is depicted on all models due to very dry air trying to work in from the northwest. The cut-off depicted on this map is if anything less sharp than the cut-off that some models show, which means the northern edge may need additional trimming at some point between now and when the snow starts if the models continue their south trend. As for the northern edge of the higher amounts…I was very conservative due to the expected sharp cut off, the best mid-level lift staying south of the river and the expected further bump to the south.

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This map won't win a popularity contest in Ohio, but here goes :P

 

attachicon.gifsnow 3-4 no neo.png

 

(I reserve the right to adjust a little Wednesday morning)

 

When looking over the 0z and 12z model runs and observations from this morning, it appears the trend is for a slightly weaker and slower cut-off ejecting out of the southwest, and also the shortwave moving into the Great Lakes on Wednesday coming in a little quicker. This all argues for the heaviest swath of snow shifting farther southeast. The 0z GFS captured this considerably better than the 0z NAM. Considering the cut-off still isn’t well sampled, and considering CIPS analog guidance suggests it is very difficult to get heavy snow in the Ohio Valley with this setup, I’m expecting an additional slight bump to the south with tonight’s 0z runs…hopefully I adjusted the map far enough south.

 

As for exact placement of the amounts, the 12z NAM/GFS/Euro all suggest that 8”+ is very likely across much of southern Ohio. Even with an additional bump south on these models, 8”+ would still likely occur along and just north of the river. Although the NAM and Euro (and even the GFS BUFKIT output) along with several SREF members suggest amounts of up to 15” are possible, I believe that these amounts (if they even occur at all) will be just south of Ohio, as this is where the best mid-level isentropic lift is shown during the storm Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In Ohio, there is still tremendous lift from the right-entrance quadrant of a 200+ knot upper level jet streak from Wednesday PM through Thursday evening, along with high PWATs for a winter storm situation (greater than 0.8” Wednesday evening falling to 0.6” by Thursday morning)…this great upper level lift and high PWAT combo when combined with the duration of the snows (12-15 hours in southern Ohio) and improving snow ratios during the second half of the storm suggests that amounts of up to a foot are possible just north of the Ohio River.

 

There is good agreement among the Euro/NAM in eroding any mid-level warm layer by Wednesday evening across southern Ohio, with the GFS a few hours faster than that. Most SREF members agree…a few members show rain hanging on in southern OH through much of Wednesday night which shows up in p-type probability plots and skews the mean snow down at sites such as PKB and CVG, however, these members show a ridiculously far north and strong storm track and are being discounted. All in all, feel as though a delayed changeover to snow isn’t a large enough risk to cut down on snow amounts much in southern Ohio.

 

A very strong northern cut-off to the snow is depicted on all models due to very dry air trying to work in from the northwest. The cut-off depicted on this map is if anything less sharp than the cut-off that some models show, which means the northern edge may need additional trimming at some point between now and when the snow starts if the models continue their south trend. As for the northern edge of the higher amounts…I was very conservative due to the expected sharp cut off, the best mid-level lift staying south of the river and the expected further bump to the south.

 

I agree with just about everything here.  I've never liked the idea of a last minute north/wet trend.    So are you going to be in Athens or Cleveland?.... I know my daughter is home for springbreak right now.

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I agree with just about everything here.  I've never liked the idea of a last minute north/wet trend.    So are you going to be in Athens or Cleveland?.... I know my daughter is home for springbreak right now.

Cleveland. Enjoying our ZR today and cirrus tomorrow night!

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honestly thought columbus was further south, what a kick in the balls setup

 

I had an argument with a guy back in mid 90's who was insistent that Columbus was on the Ohio river. Of course it was pre-smartphone era, so we had to wait several hours before a map was handy and put that one to rest.

 

Good times.

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I had an argument with a guy back in mid 90's who was insistent that Columbus was on the Ohio river. Of course it was pre-smartphone era, so we had to wait several hours before a map was handy and put that one to rest.

 

Good times.

LOL

Our state capital is along a much less significant river. Interesting. If you think about it.. hills to the NW..hills to the SE...Columbus is down in a bowl.

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Snuck over to the Mid Atlantic forum where they're posting EURO maps and Louisville get crushed with over a foot of snow again. The EURO is unbeleivably persistent. I think 6-12 inches of snow would be a good call for here.

Yeah, the euro is good news for the Ohio posters too after our collective pecans were kicked by the American models.

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Yeah, the euro is good news for the Ohio posters too after our collective pecans were kicked by the American models.

 

 

I am down here in Perry County. NAM had me close to the fringe. GFS had me on the dying fringe. Nice to see 1 model stop the bleeding atleast.

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Euro keeps our hopes alive for sure.  It just won't back down!  Might be a tad lower on QPF than previous runs, but still looks pretty good for me in eastern Cincinnati.  Looks like on wx bell at least, the 6" line moved southeast about 10 miles.

 

Granted, I'm not really a fan of using the wx bell snow maps for actual amounts but just referencing for run to run variation...Which has been ultra low with the Euro.

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I'm headed to bed and this may mean nothing. But, it's interesting to note. I was progged to be around 50 degrees at this time, I'm already down to 42 degrees. We'll see how cool the temps can drop by morning.

Might not be good if arctic high is pushing in faster. Don't want the dry air to arrive early like it is up here.
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