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March 4th-6th Winter Storm


Powerball

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A lot of that in Kentucky on the EURO would fall as sleet but still plenty of snow as well.

 

Yeah, you're right. I should have pointed out the WB map is a combo.

 

9z SREF fairly tame with mean snowfall totals (lots of mixing involved in KY). Still quite a bit of spread though.

 

BMG: 5.1"

BWG: 2.7"

CMH: 5.3"

CVG: 7.2"

EVV: 6.6"

LEX: 5.5"

OWB: 5.5"

PAH: 4.5"

SDF: 6.3"

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Yeah, you're right. I should have pointed out the WB map is a combo.

9z SREF fairly tame with mean snowfall totals (lots of mixing involved in KY). Still quite a bit of spread though.

BMG: 5.1"

BWG: 2.7"

CMH: 5.3"

CVG: 7.2"

EVV: 6.6"

LEX: 5.5"

OWB: 5.5"

PAH: 4.5"

SDF: 6.3"

Found that interesting when I looked as well. My mean and buckeyes is higher than many of the locations that are supposed to get slammed. I have a high of 22.5 low of 0. Makes me wonder if most models include sleet as snow Which as we all know drastically cut down snow totals. No offense to ukrocks but I'm rooting for 75 mile north shift. He'd still be golden there lol.

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12z NAM coming down off its crazy pills it took last night. Regressing back to the other guidance in placement. Heckuva wallop for some in southern IN, northern KY, and southern OH.

 

attachicon.gif12z nam sn map.gif

 

 

Super tight north cut-off.

 

attachicon.giftight.gif

 

The northern cutoff is sharper on the 12z vs the 0z, but the totals are pretty much the same from 71/70 in Ohio and south of there... at least from what I can tell.

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I think if I had to place bets, my money would be on favoring a south tick.   Tough set up without having a decent low riding the front.  The front might win

 

It's a tough call. Normally I'd side on the models over-estimating the cold push (being too far south)...but this is a bit of a different set-up than we usually see. 

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Wow, the NAM, EURO, and GFS show well over a foot of snow here. Hard to fathom because we're supposed to get to near 60 this evening. Should be a fun day and night tomorrow!

 

Didn't realize that.   That's the kind of thing that makes go....hmm     What's interesting to me is how unusual it is to go from temps like that to a raging snowstorm in under 24 hours....without a wound up low somewhere on the playing field to act as the driver for the cold.    

 

I would love to see an analog for this puppy.

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12z GGEM is relatively weak sauce. But, it's kinda sucked lately so take it FWIW. Snowfall below may not be all snow, as per usual.

 

attachicon.gifggem sn map.png

 

the ggem has been the most generous with northern extent of the snow...but like you said, not as bullish on amounts thru the axis.   Interestingly JB says the axis along the river is 6-10" amounts....so he is being pretty conservative.  

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Didn't realize that. That's the kind of thing that makes go....hmm What's interesting to me is how unusual it is to go from temps like that to a raging snowstorm in under 24 hours....without a wound up low somewhere on the playing field to act as the driver for the cold.

I would love to see an analog for this puppy.

Apparently this happened here in March of 1995. We got to near 70 the day before and got a bunch of rain and then heavy snow the following day. Local mets keep bringing it up.

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Apparently this happened here in March of 1995. We got to near 70 the day before and got a bunch of rain and then heavy snow the following day. Local mets keep bringing it up.

 

if it was march 8th-ish, it looks like it was a low cutting up.  I think I remember that because it was a massive bust here.  We were suppose to get a foot and ended up with drizzle....I think the storm cut further west than thought

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Looks like March 7-8, 1995. Wasn't a really big snow maker though. Jackson KY did best from a quick glance.

 

Indy

3/7/95: 62˚/30˚/1.45"/0.3"

3/8/95: 30˚/25˚/0.01"/0.3"

 

Columbus

3/7/95: 71˚/37˚/0.78"/0.0"

3/8/95: 37˚/26˚/0.37"/2.4"

 

Cincinnati

3/7/95: 68˚/33˚/0.94"/T

3/8/95: 33˚/26˚/0.43"/3.3"

 

Louisville

3/7/95: 70˚/34˚/0.90"/0.0"

3/8/95: 35˚/29˚/0.18"/1.0"

 

Lexington

3/7/95: 71˚/34˚/1.44"/0.0"

3/8/95: 35˚/26˚/0.76"/3.0"

 

Jackson

3/7/95: 72˚/50˚/0.00"/0.0"

3/8/95: 50˚/26˚/2.04"/5.6"

 

LAF got 1.5" (2.18" total precip).

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Looks like March 7-8, 1995. Wasn't a really big snow maker though.

 

Indy

3/7/95: 62˚/30˚/1.45"/0.3"

3/8/95: 30˚/25˚/0.01"/0.3"

 

Columbus

3/7/95: 71˚/37˚/0.78"/0.0"

3/8/95: 37˚/26˚/0.37"/2.4"

 

Cincinnati

3/7/95: 68˚/33˚/0.94"/T

3/8/95: 33˚/26˚/0.43"/3.3"

 

Louisville

3/7/95: 70˚/34˚/0.90"/0.0"

3/8/95: 35˚/29˚/0.18"/1.0"

 

Lexington

3/7/95: 71˚/34˚/1.44"/0.0"

3/8/95: 35˚/26˚/0.76"/3.0"

 

Jackson

3/7/95: 72˚/50˚/0.00"/0.0"

3/8/95: 50˚/26˚/2.04"/5.6"

 

yea, I was totally guessing based on looping thru old surface maps from March '95.  the 8th was the only time frame I saw a low cutting up.   Maybe it was a different event.

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if it was march 8th-ish, it looks like it was a low cutting up. I think I remember that because it was a massive bust here. We were suppose to get a foot and ended up with drizzle....I think the storm cut further west than thought

From what I've heard it was a similar situation. A second low pressure developed behind the cold front.

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Looks like March 7-8, 1995. Wasn't a really big snow maker though. Jackson KY did best from a quick glance.

Indy

3/7/95: 62˚/30˚/1.45"/0.3"

3/8/95: 30˚/25˚/0.01"/0.3"

Columbus

3/7/95: 71˚/37˚/0.78"/0.0"

3/8/95: 37˚/26˚/0.37"/2.4"

Cincinnati

3/7/95: 68˚/33˚/0.94"/T

3/8/95: 33˚/26˚/0.43"/3.3"

Louisville

3/7/95: 70˚/34˚/0.90"/0.0"

3/8/95: 35˚/29˚/0.18"/1.0"

Lexington

3/7/95: 71˚/34˚/1.44"/0.0"

3/8/95: 35˚/26˚/0.76"/3.0"

Jackson

3/7/95: 72˚/50˚/0.00"/0.0"

3/8/95: 50˚/26˚/2.04"/5.6"

LAF got 1.5" (2.18" total precip).

Looks like Lexington and Eastern Kentucky got a decent snow. Nothing major though. I was seven at the time so I don't remember the event.

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