Powerball Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Why the heck not. Potential has consistently been shown for a 3rd wave to possibly impact the lower Oho Valley behind the 3rd-4th system. So why not create a thread for its discussion as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z Euro clown map. WB, so understand some snow on the southern flanks may not actually be snow. 12z Ukie is farther north with the event (biggest snows along and just to the north of the Ohio River, basically). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z euro ens mean snowfall is also further north with the axis, (from about cincy to PIT). If this turns into something big for the subforum...talk about sneaking under the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This storm has my interest. I'm just not sure how far north this bad boy can go. I've been burned to many times when the models showed a major snowstorm just south of my area and it ends up being an Indianapols special with a cold rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This storm has my interest. I'm just not sure how far north this bad boy can go. I've been burned to many times when the models showed a major snowstorm just south of my area and it ends up being an Indianapols special with a cold rain here. I wouldn't think this would go any further north (though stranger things have happened I guess). Looks very good for anyone along or south of the OH River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 I wouldn't think this would go any further north (though stranger things have happened I guess). Looks very good for anyone along or south of the OH River. Yep. Probably another SE MO / S. IN / KY / S. OH special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z UKMETThe one buckeye posted for the 12z Ukie looks way different than this one... unless his wasn't the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yep. Probably another SE MO / S. IN / KY / S. OH special. Oh, look at that. Another east coast snowstorm, while we fiddle around with a silly snow/mixed/rain mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Oh, look at that. Another east coast snowstorm, while we fiddle around with a silly snow/mixed/rain mess... Aside from Boston, the east coast and lower OH Valley haven't necessarily been running laps around us either... But indeed, the past couple of weeks have been treating them well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The one buckeye posted for the 12z Ukie looks way different than this one... unless his wasn't the 12z. post-622-0-16452600-1425227124.jpg 00z run...and in two waves between day 4 thru day 5, hence the 144 hr total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z UKMET looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ukie not going to give up easily. 0z run at 60 and 72 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Canadian looking good for several inches across ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The UKIE brings the rain/snow line awfully close to Louisville. Still a great hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForecastCincinnati Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The new NAVGEM looks about the same for cvg... ~.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This is quite an odd setup, but surely would be a thread the needle if it works out! GFS says no, but almost every other model is going for it. Will have to check out the Euro ens later....almost want to say it is a question now of nailing down the exact placement of the heavy band but the cautious side of me says to wait another 12 hours. For all we know, that band of snow may barely even develop. I would tend to agree it doesn't go much more north, especially from what the NAM says. This thing is riding a pretty hard defined frontal boundary that is trying (but sorta failing) to progress farther east. Without a significant surface low, it isn't going to push that front back northwest much (if at all). If anything, I could see the band of snow thinning out on future runs and thus possibly sliding a bit southeast. I'm all or nothing at this point. Give me 8-10+ or nothing at all. Sick of the salt on the roads but willing to concede if it means the big daddy storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro ens mean pretty tightly clustered and looks almost dead on to the operational. 6" line runs up (or a little southeast of) I-71 with >6" south of there. The mean actually has 10-14+ across central/NE KY. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This is quite an odd setup, but surely would be a thread the needle if it works out! GFS says no, but almost every other model is going for it. Will have to check out the Euro ens later....almost want to say it is a question now of nailing down the exact placement of the heavy band but the cautious side of me says to wait another 12 hours. For all we know, that band of snow may barely even develop. I would tend to agree it doesn't go much more north, especially from what the NAM says. This thing is riding a pretty hard defined frontal boundary that is trying (but sorta failing) to progress farther east. Without a significant surface low, it isn't going to push that front back northwest much (if at all). If anything, I could see the band of snow thinning out on future runs and thus possibly sliding a bit southeast. I'm all or nothing at this point. Give me 8-10+ or nothing at all. Sick of the salt on the roads but willing to concede if it means the big daddy storm! agree 100% with bolded and underlined. I know the uk has been pulling coupes lately but this set up just smells southeast trend to me. I think we would have seen 'something' from the gfs by now too. UKrocks looks like he's in a sweetspot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 agree 100% with bolded and underlined. I know the uk has been pulling coupes lately but this set up just smells southeast trend to me. I think we would have seen 'something' from the gfs by now too. UKrocks looks like he's in a sweetspot. Couldn't have said it better. I'm just not feeling this one ... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z NAM further south/southeast (weaker with the low) compared to its 0z run. Kentucky shellacking. Nice tight 850 temp "spread" between the 0˚C and 10˚C isotherms at 66 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z NAM further south/southeast (weaker with the low) compared to its 0z run. Nice tight 850 temp "spread" between the 0˚C and 10˚C isotherms at 66 hours: nam.gif Yeah, I think buckeye is going to be right. This looks like a SE trender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, I think buckeye is going to be right. This looks like a SE trender. Yeah, most likely. Front that comes through with the first system means business, seemingly. But, things could still change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z GFS finally getting a clue, and moves north a bit. Still not as far north as some of the other models, but a step in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 JB made an interesting point on his vid today, and I haven't really put a lot of thought into whether it's right or not, but he said, "have you noticed that storms that have warm air in front of them have trended north, while storm with cold air in front of them have trended south". Would argue that this one would trend north. That being said, he like the euro depiction right now....which is still too south for most of us, except for southern OH and KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Really like where I stand at this point in the ballgame. A lot of these totals in KY will have sleet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z ggem is kind of widespread boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Slight nudge north on the 12z Euro. A little more real estate in southern IN and OH get into better snows on this run. Kentucky still the epicenter, though amounts were cut back some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Usual caveats apply to this map, but here's the 12z Euro clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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