North Balti Zen Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 this will be in Charleston harbor that weekend iceberg.jpg Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 the forum is boring and full of asterisks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Seriously, it's okay for warm (that is to say, normal) weather at this point. And it does piss me off people still stalking snow and cold. It's nearly ****in' April. Also, I would assume the people still hoping for cold don't have to pay heating bills. I think snow weenies are controlling the atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 24, 2015 Author Share Posted March 24, 2015 the forum is boring and full of asterisks just wait until it snows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 this will be in Charleston harbor that weekend iceberg.jpg LOL. Averages are just that. For every day that sucks the life out of the 'warmers' in the 40's in the spring a day near 80 does it for the ones who hate heat....it all works out in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I'm stalking the fall equinox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 just wait until it snows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Even Boston and Fairbanks are out of the game now. It's a wrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 384.JPG I'll take it! haha Chance of that verifying is about 2%, but until April 22nd (my last official measurable snow since I've kept records in 80) it is possible I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I really miss warmth and late day boomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I'm still rooting for record-breaking April cold punctuated by heavy snow....with an easy reason why: Here in the MD-suburbs of DC, just about every monthly old-time record snow event has been topped since I started following the weather-- November 87, December 09, January 96, February 10, and March 93. I want to see that April event. I don't think BWI and DCA are ever breaking their monthly April snow records from 1924... 4/1/1924 was probably a 1 in 500 year event or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Even Boston and Fairbanks are out of the game now. It's a wrap. ^ How many people care that his friend lives in Fairbanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I don't think BWI and DCA are ever breaking their monthly April snow records from 1924... 4/1/1924 was probably a 1 in 500 year event or something. March 1942 was just a few days earlier with a heck of a lot more snow. 8-10" in early April is rare but I don't think it's 1 in 500 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 March 1942 was just a few days earlier with a heck of a lot more snow. 8-10" in early April is rare but I don't think it's 1 in 500 years. Oh I know all about 1942 (just look at my avatar lol) and I'd call that 1 in 500 years too, but... its hard to assign a probability to these types of events because we have such a small sample size (130-140 years or so), so its just a total guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I'm stalking the fall equinox. Good thing it's a half-year away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Oh I know all about 1942 (just look at my avatar lol) and I'd call that 1 in 500 years too, but... its hard to assign a probability to these types of events because we have such a small sample size (130-140 years or so), so its just a total guess. There was March 1942, April 1924, and also a big late March storm some time in the 1890s, so that would make it 3 times in the past 120 years, or 1 in 40 years if you just go by the available data (sounds surprisingly high but statistics don't lie) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Actually stats lie all the time but that's a different story. You can get 1 in 100 yr or more events in quicker succession too. As far as April goes our climo is arguably quite different today than 100 years ago though these past few winters make you wonder a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 There was March 1942, April 1924, and also a big late March storm some time in the 1890s, so that would make it 3 times in the past 120 years, or 1 in 40 years if you just go by the available data (sounds surprisingly high but statistics don't lie) The only one I know of was March 16-18, 1892 which gave BWI about 16 inches, which really isn't that late in March... but they also got 8 inches on March 10 and it was the snowiest March ever, so it was a very anomalous month overall. Regardless, that isn't how probability works... a 1 in 500 event could still happen 3 times in 120 years. But again, who knows what the odds really are. I think we'd both agree its very rare. Actually stats lie all the time but that's a different story. You can get 1 in 100 yr or more events in quicker succession too. As far as April goes our climo is arguably quite different today than 100 years ago though these past few winters make you wonder a bit. What's weird is how nearly all the 1 inch or greater snow events in Baltimore for April occurred in a 10 year period (1915, 1916, 1917, 1924). I don't know whether its UHI or climate change or just a blip, but thats really strange to have it clustered like that. You should checkout (Early American Winters) by David Ludlum. Good examples of late season mid Atlantic snows in those 2 books. Mostly 1700s to late 1800s covered. I've heard of that book and I've been meaning to get it. I like reading about really old storms. It makes you wonder what the theoretical max is for snow at DCA/BWI. I bet some of those winters during the Maunder Minimum exceeded 09/10 and 95/96 (like 1717, for instance). I often wonder too what the latest theoretical time is that we could ever get accumulating snow- seems to be a clean cutoff after April 15 for all the airports, with the exception of 4/28/1898, but again, small sample size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 ^ How many people care that his friend lives in Fairbanks? +1 I lol'd at this because I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 The only one I know of was March 16-18, 1892 which gave BWI about 16 inches, which really isn't that late in March... but they also got 8 inches on March 10 and it was the snowiest March ever, so it was a very anomalous month overall. Regardless, that isn't how probability works... a 1 in 500 event could still happen 3 times in 120 years. But again, who knows what the odds really are. I think we'd both agree its very rare. There was also a storm on 3/27/1891 that brought 12" in DC. But you're right... nobody really knows the odds since there isn't a very big sample for storms this late.... I'm just going by whatever information is available but it's all speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 There was also a storm on 3/27/1891 that brought 12" in DC. But you're right... nobody really knows the odds since there isn't a very big sample for storms this late.... I'm just going by whatever information is available but it's all speculation. Curious if tenman slant stick measured that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 What's weird is how nearly all the 1 inch or greater snow events in Baltimore for April occurred in a 10 year period (1915, 1916, 1917, 1924). I don't know whether its UHI or climate change or just a blip, but thats really strange to have it clustered like that. DC is similar, but also has a grouping in the late 1800s, and given that we were coming out of a colder period then I think it probably would have gone back prior to official records as well to some degree. I don't think bigger April snow has ever necessarily been the norm in the non mountainous areas around here. Maybe more that there are certain intra-decadal things that happen.. i.e., say a pattern like this past two seasons were to continue longer.. which isn't necessarily totally out of the question until that big western ridging gets squashed more consistently. I do think UHI has probably generally killed April in the cities themselves unless there's a fluke event. But even that's maybe a stretch as April was never that great to begin with and we have still seen light events here and there recently even if less frequently than before. Under the right conditions I don't think it's out of the question we could get a nighttime paste job though. If Vets Day can happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 +1 I lol'd at this because I was thinking the same thing. Having a hard time finding material to troll me on, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 ^ How many people care that his friend lives in Fairbanks? I was making an observation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Having a hard time finding material to troll me on, huh? Oh no, there's plenty. I just got bored with you is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Good post Ian. Interdecadal patterns interest me quite a bit. You can pick out persistence in any decade. When the goa low set up during Dec I thought the tables turned on the dominant -epo/+pna regime. But it came right back. Really interesting stuff because it's obviously a strong driver of our sensible wx. The absence of blocking the last few years reminds me quite a bit of the 90's. Recency bias is in play with the ao/nao because we had a ridiculous stretch from 09-12. There are a lot of crappy multi year blocking seasons over the last 60 years. I've been wanting to plot all the anomalous -epo winters and see how the ao/nao behaved. There could be a connection there. There's not a lot of room in the high latitudes. I'm thinking it's possible that having anomalous ridging in the epo region makes it more difficult to get persistent higher heights in the ao/nao domain space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 DC is similar, but also has a grouping in the late 1800s, and given that we were coming out of a colder period then I think it probably would have gone back prior to official records as well to some degree. I don't think bigger April snow has ever necessarily been the norm in the non mountainous areas around here. Maybe more that there are certain intra-decadal things that happen.. i.e., say a pattern like this past two seasons were to continue longer.. which isn't necessarily totally out of the question until that big western ridging gets squashed more consistently. I do think UHI has probably generally killed April in the cities themselves unless there's a fluke event. But even that's maybe a stretch as April was never that great to begin with and we have still seen light events here and there recently even if less frequently than before. Under the right conditions I don't think it's out of the question we could get a nighttime paste job though. If Vets Day can happen... The return period for April accumulating snows is pretty different between downtown and even fairly close-in suburbs. Since I've been alive: 4/82, 4/90, 4/96, 4/97, 4/00, 4/07 all had accumulating snows in at least some suburban areas. Of that list, I think only 4/07 also accumulated in downtown DC. Of course, road accumulations is a much bigger task, but a few of the above list managed that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Good post Ian. Interdecadal patterns interest me quite a bit. You can pick out persistence in any decade. When the goa low set up during Dec I thought the tables turned on the dominant -epo/+pna regime. But it came right back. Really interesting stuff because it's obviously a strong driver of our sensible wx. The absence of blocking the last few years reminds me quite a bit of the 90's. Recency bias is in play with the ao/nao because we had a ridiculous stretch from 09-12. There are a lot of crappy multi year blocking seasons over the last 60 years. I've been wanting to plot all the anomalous -epo winters and see how the ao/nao behaved. There could be a connection there. There's not a lot of room in the high latitudes. I'm thinking it's possible that having anomalous ridging in the epo region makes it more difficult to get persistent higher heights in the ao/nao domain space. I think you can see it across weather types.. like the 80s sucked for severe weather in the central US in general. The 30s had big extremes of both cold and hot. The hurricane drought of late.. the severe weather drought of late. Once you get a big somewhat stable pattern you get positive feedback to keep it going until something large comes along to shift it. In those realms sometimes it seems hard to totally dis-aggregate climate change vs what we've seen forever. And yes, gym, true.. though I did say "bigger". 2011 brought at least minor record able to the city as well. Dulles has only had like 4 events over 1" in April since opening so it's not really something anyone should expect unless you're up in the hills maybe IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 And yes, gym, true.. though I did say "bigger". 2011 brought at least minor record able to the city as well. Dulles has only had like 4 events over 1" in April since opening so it's not really something anyone should expect unless you're up in the hills maybe IMO. Oh, I agree. There's no basis for a 6" April thump where I'm at, which is why that WSW issued 1996 was so extreme. It doesn't mean I'm not continuing to hope for that extreme event, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I think you can see it across weather types.. like the 80s sucked for severe weather in the central US in general. The 30s had big extremes of both cold and hot. The hurricane drought of late.. the severe weather drought of late. Once you get a big somewhat stable pattern you get positive feedback to keep it going until something large comes along to shift it. In those realms sometimes it seems hard to totally dis-aggregate climate change vs what we've seen forever. And yes, gym, true.. though I did say "bigger". 2011 brought at least minor record able to the city as well. Dulles has only had like 4 events over 1" in April since opening so it's not really something anyone should expect unless you're up in the hills maybe IMO. The larger scale off and on buttons of weather streaks is fascinating. Not too long ago, every coastal resident from Galveston to the OBX was scared of their own shadow. People sold their beach homes out of fear because "land falling US hurricanes were only going to become more frequent and intense". Oops. Because climate change is such a headline, when a heater of any anomalous weather pattern runs a multi-year course everyone starts thinking it's here to stay (hot/cold/drought/storms/floods...doesn't matter which). The new normal is accepted far too quickly. But the pattern always changes. People were predicting a nearly ice free arctic as early as this year and many more by 2020 because of what happened leading up to and including 2012. The long term downward trend is still intact but the last 2 years showed that patterns can support increases during the trend. Something that a lot of people assumed could never happen again. We just knocked down back to back old school cold and snowy winters and had a summer loaded with nice continental air. Things that a lot of people thought may never happen again. The west is reeling from a terrible drought. It's happened before and it will break. Probably with torrential rains and historic flooding because that's how the west rolls. lol. In the big picture, I don't see anything that has been happening in the last 20 years as that unusual. Except for the gradual rise in global temperatures over a short period of time, if we had records going back several thousand years everything we've seen in the last 20 years would be looked at as pretty typical just about everywhere imho. Heck, Yellowstone (or any super volcano) could blow it's top and change everything for decades. An asteroid big enough for severe impact winter conditions would make any discussion about weather irrelevant. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.