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March Observations Thread


CAD_Wedge_NC

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Getting some unwanted rain here, typically the farms are turning over fields and rowing up etc this time of year so they can plant corn the beginning of Arpil, but they are unable to get into the fields because they are so wet, we need at least a week of warm dry conditions or they will be getting a really late start on the corn etc in the east.

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A big 0.34" for the week. I am also exactly 20º below the high forecasted last night. They have lowered it 9º in the latest package. Not exactly a week to be proud of as far as NWS Raleigh is concerned.

50 here right now , was suppose to be 65, I guess the sun could break out any minute!

I wonder if NWS Raleigh and NWS GSP are in cahoots !? :)

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50 here right now , was suppose to be 65, I guess the sun could break out any minute!

I wonder if NWS Raleigh and NWS GSP are in cahoots !? :)

They will never learn how to forecast CAD erosion. It's been messed up as long as I can remember. They need to forecast wedge conditions for at least 12-18 hours longer than any models show. Even CAE missed this one from Columbia North and west today..

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They will never learn how to forecast CAD erosion. It's been messed up as long as I can remember. They need to forecast wedge conditions for at least 12-18 hours longer than any models show. Even CAE missed this one from Columbia North and west today..

 

It's 61.9° now and sunny.  High was supposed to be 60° so we made it.

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They will never learn how to forecast CAD erosion. It's been messed up as long as I can remember. They need to forecast wedge conditions for at least 12-18 hours longer than any models show. Even CAE missed this one from Columbia North and west today..

 

Can I see your data? 

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It is still in the 50's here and cloudy. The forecast from this morning was for this area to get to 66-68. They did change that around 10 though to 60-62 or so which we may still get to. I don'y have any data written down, but these CAD episodes never seem to go away as fast as models show, especially NW of I-85.

 

000
FXUS62 KGSP 141415
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1015 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL AIR WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE FRONTS WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
BACK OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPGLIDE REGIME STARTING TO WEAKEN AS
WEDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD/SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NC...WHILE ONLY PREDOMINATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAIL FURTHER SOUTH. THUS...KEPT POPS ELEVATED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BACKING OFF SHARPLY BY MIDDAY. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY AS CAD EROSION HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FCST...THEREFORE MID 60S LOOK UNLIKELY FOR HIGHS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN WESTERN NC.
OTHERWISE...KEPT FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

 

I see the bolded in discussions all the time when dealing with wedge erosion.

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It is still in the 50's here and cloudy. The forecast from this morning was for this area to get to 66-68. They did change that around 10 though to 60-62 or so which we may still get to. I don'y have any data written down, but these CAD episodes never seem to go away as fast as models show, especially NW of I-85.

 

Oh okay nm, I thought you had some empirical data to back up your claim. 

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Don't know how to call today.... we over-performed on rain - .66" but it only rained for about 4 hours - not all day and well into the night. There's been nothing since about 1:30, and this evening/tonight's 80% showers/storms before 11:00 looks to be a huge bust.

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50 here right now , was suppose to be 65, I guess the sun could break out any minute!

I wonder if NWS Raleigh and NWS GSP are in cahoots !? :)

 

67º was forecasted last night for today.  Currently 76º.  Not complaining because it's a beautiful day, but that is quite a bit off again.

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