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Tn Valley March 4-6 Storm OBS


jaxjagman

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Iowa State's 0z NAM text (regular not hi-res):

StnID: kbna    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
150304/0100Z   1  19009KT  60.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150304/0200Z   2  18009KT  60.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150304/0300Z   3  19008KT  59.4F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
150304/0400Z   4  19009KT  59.8F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
150304/0500Z   5  20009KT  59.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100
150304/0600Z   6  19009KT  60.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150304/0700Z   7  20008KT  60.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|  0
150304/0800Z   8  21006KT  61.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|100
150304/0900Z   9  20005KT  60.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  0|100
150304/1000Z  10  20006KT  60.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15    0|  0|100
150304/1100Z  11  26003KT  61.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|100
150304/1200Z  12  34005KT  57.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150304/1300Z  13  35007KT  52.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29    0|  0|100
150304/1400Z  14  36009KT  47.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32    0|  0|100
150304/1500Z  15  36010KT  44.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39    0|  0|100
150304/1600Z  16  36009KT  45.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45    0|  0|100
150304/1700Z  17  36008KT  44.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52    0|  0|100
150304/1800Z  18  36008KT  44.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150304/1900Z  19  36009KT  43.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100
150304/2000Z  20  35009KT  42.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67    0|  0|100
150304/2100Z  21  36010KT  41.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69    0|  0|100
150304/2200Z  22  35010KT  39.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82    0|  0|100
150304/2300Z  23  36011KT  37.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87    0|  0|100
150305/0000Z  24  35010KT  36.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150305/0100Z  25  01011KT  35.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95    0|  0|100
150305/0200Z  26  36011KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.02    0|  0|100
150305/0300Z  27  36013KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09    0|  0|100
150305/0400Z  28  01013KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.17    0|  0|100
150305/0500Z  29  36011KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.21    0|  0|100
150305/0600Z  30  36012KT  31.5F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.03|| 0.038    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.03|| 1.25    0| 16| 84
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150305/0700Z  31  36013KT  30.8F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.02|| 0.032    0:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.05|| 1.28    0| 55| 45
150305/0800Z  32  36013KT  29.7F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.038    0:1|  0.0|| 0.12|| 0.05|| 1.32    0|100|  0
150305/0900Z  33  36013KT  28.7F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.09|| 0.00|| 0.047    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.05|| 1.36    0|100|  0
150305/1000Z  34  36015KT  27.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.26|| 0.05|| 1.39    0|100|  0
150305/1100Z  35  36015KT  25.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.28|| 0.05|| 1.40    0|100|  0
150305/1200Z  36  36015KT  24.3F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.29|| 0.05|| 1.40    0|100|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150305/1300Z  37  01014KT  24.0F  SNPL    6:1| 0.2|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.035    6:1|  0.2|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.44   77| 23|  0
150305/1400Z  38  01013KT  23.1F  SNOW   14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040   10:1|  0.8|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.48  100|  0|  0
150305/1500Z  39  35012KT  22.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    9:1|  1.0|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.52  100|  0|  0
150305/1600Z  40  36011KT  23.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    9:1|  1.2|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.54  100|  0|  0
150305/1700Z  41  35011KT  23.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    9:1|  1.3|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.55  100|  0|  0
150305/1800Z  42  35012KT  24.0F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    9:1|  1.4|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.56  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150305/1900Z  43  35012KT  26.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  1.4|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.56    0|  0|  0
150305/2000Z  44  35012KT  26.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  1.4|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.56    0|  0|  0
150305/2100Z  45  35012KT  26.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  1.4|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.56    0|  0|  0
150305/2200Z  46  36011KT  26.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  1.4|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.56    0|  0|  0
150305/2300Z  47  36011KT  25.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  1.4|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.56    0|  0|  0
150306/0000Z  48  01011KT  23.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  1.4|| 0.31|| 0.05|| 1.56    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150306/0100Z  49  01010KT  22.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/0200Z  50  01010KT  22.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/0300Z  51  02010KT  22.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/0400Z  52  02009KT  22.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/0500Z  53  03009KT  21.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/0600Z  54  03009KT  21.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150306/0700Z  55  03010KT  19.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/0800Z  56  02008KT  18.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/0900Z  57  02008KT  17.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/1000Z  58  02007KT  17.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/1100Z  59  01007KT  16.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/1200Z  60  02007KT  15.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150306/1300Z  61  02006KT  15.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/1400Z  62  03006KT  17.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/1500Z  63  04005KT  20.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/1600Z  64  03005KT  22.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/1700Z  65  01004KT  25.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/1800Z  66  35004KT  26.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150306/1900Z  67  35004KT  28.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/2000Z  68  35003KT  30.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/2100Z  69  34003KT  31.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/2200Z  70  34003KT  31.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150306/2300Z  71  34003KT  30.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/0000Z  72  34003KT  29.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150307/0100Z  73  VRB02KT  28.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/0200Z  74  VRB01KT  28.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/0300Z  75  VRB02KT  27.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/0400Z  76  VRB01KT  26.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/0500Z  77  VRB01KT  26.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/0600Z  78  VRB01KT  26.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150307/0700Z  79  VRB02KT  25.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/0800Z  80  VRB02KT  25.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/0900Z  81  VRB02KT  25.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/1000Z  82  VRB02KT  24.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/1100Z  83  VRB02KT  24.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150307/1200Z  84  VRB02KT  24.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
============================================================================================================================

Where do you find this at?? 

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Where do you find this at?? 

 

Go here:  http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html

 

Zoom in and click on a station, then choose to view the cobb output from the various runs or click "Visualize Data" to see it in chart form (meteogram).  That site, and the meteograms particularly, are my most visited weather site year round.  It's a great quick and dirty way to get a feel for what's going on before digging into maps.  At least for me.

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According to the Wundermap, it is 51 on Signal Mountain right now. Still 70 at my house in East Brainerd. I can actually see Signal from my backyard. Can't be much more than 12 miles away. I realize that some of the difference is due to about 1200' in elevation, but that is still a remarkable temperature gradient.

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Go here:  http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html

 

Zoom in and click on a station, then choose to view the cobb output from the various runs or click "Visualize Data" to see it in chart form (meteogram).  That site, and the meteograms particularly, are my most visited weather site year round.  It's a great quick and dirty way to get a feel for what's going on before digging into maps.  At least for me.

Thanks!! Heading there now :)

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According to the Wundermap, it is 51 on Signal Mountain right now. Still 70 at my house in East Brainerd. I can actually see Signal from my backyard. Can't be much more than 12 miles away. I realize that some of the difference is due to about 1200' in elevation, but that is still a remarkable temperature gradient.

Yeah I'm amazed that only about 2 hours or so ago I was over 70, and now down to 49, already an impressive temperature fall.

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mcd0119.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN
   MO...WRN KY

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   VALID 050127Z - 050730Z

   SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   MID-SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
   SUBSTANTIAL ICING AND HEAVY SNOW.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AREAS OF
   PRECIPITATION FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE OHIO VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH AN EXTENSIVE ZONE OF LOW/MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDING
   PHASING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. CONVECTIVE
   PROCESSES OVER THE ARKLATEX -- WHERE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS
   ONGOING -- ARE STIMULATING GROWTH OF ADDITIONAL HEAVIER
   PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD/ENEWD ACROSS
   THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...SUBFREEZING
   SFC TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT
   FROM NW TO SE...SUPPORTING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES.

   A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY SOUNDING TAKEN NEAR THE MEMPHIS
   WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SAMPLES
   ABOVE-0C TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 900 MB TO 650 MB...WITH MAXIMUM
   WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT COMPLETE
   MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS FROM PARTS OF SWRN TN INTO NWRN
   MS AND E-CNTRL AR...WHERE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
   FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.03 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...HIGHEST RATES WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
   SUBSTANTIAL ICING MAY ENSUE.

   A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE TOWARD SLEET AND THEN SNOW WILL OCCUR
   NWWD/NWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO NERN AR...FAR SERN MO...AND
   WRN KY...WHERE ELEVATED WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
   COOLER. SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES OF ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER INCH
   PER HOUR MAY OCCUR...WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER
   HOUR ALSO POSSIBLE. WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR SNOW TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY PREDOMINANT FROM NW TO SE AS DEEPER COLD AIR
   OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

   ..COHEN.. 03/05/2015

 

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The 1z RAP does show the surface freezing line having difficulty punching through the plateau.  It looks to me like it takes about 5 hours to move past it after arriving there.  Earlier it showed a TYS changeover time of 12z, now it's 14z.  The longer it stalls the less precious sleet I get.  Come on RAP, get it together!  :guitar:

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The 1z RAP does show the surface freezing line having difficulty punching through the plateau.  It looks to me like it takes about 5 hours to move past it after arriving there.  Earlier it showed a TYS changeover time of 12z, now it's 14z.  The longer it stalls the less precious sleet I get.  Come on RAP, get it together!  :guitar:

I don't know about that, already mid to upper 30s on the plateau.  37 Crossville, I think the cold air is already starting to move up an over.  I'm already down to 45, and most of us are around 10 to 15 degrees away from freezing already in the Eastern Valley with still precipitously dropping temps.  I think we hit freezing sooner.

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