ShawnEastTN Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just made the drive home from work in Western Kentucky- around a tenth of an inch of zr- then a quick changeover to some of the hardest sleet I have ever experienced. Some flash freezing of the rain on the roads, temp at 29 at my place here in UC now. Sleet quickly accumulating, will upload some pics a little later as long as I have power. Awesome! You all are in for a serious ride out that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Amazing temp contrast across the Tri-Cities. 73 in Johnson City and 40's in SWVA. My car read 41 earlier where there is snowpack. 53 at my house. Flooding has been a issue today and the main show isn't even here yet. Similar here. I got up to 50 today. Still have some snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I hope it is a quick switch to snow for you guys out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The temperature is a balmy 74 here in Greeneville right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I've dropped to 59 here in Morristown with rain. An amazing drop seeing we were sitting at 70 degrees just about an hour ago. I don't know how much of that is due to the rain though just dropping the temps. Winds have gotten a lot calmer in the last little bit. No more gusty SW winds, so I guess the surface front is getting close to knocking on the door here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We topped out at 73 here today, and are declining now down to 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 HRRR dont hardly show any sn here,all ice,clears out by 5-6 in the morn,maybe some flurries flying around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... TIMING OF THE ONSET FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SNOWAMOUNTS REMAIN DIFFICULT FOR THIS FORECAST. KEPT THE FORECASTSIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH SOME TWEAKS TO BE DISCUSSED BELOW. STILLLOOKING FOR AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THEAREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY SOUTH OF I40. ADDED A BIT OF ICEACCUMULATION TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE AL BORDER AT AROUND 2 TENTHS OFAN INCH OR SO. UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ASWELL TO REFLECT IMPACTS OF THE ADDITIONAL ICE COMBINED WITH SLEETAND SNOW INTO THURSDAY. 12Z MODELS ARE TRYING TO LINE UP A BIT BETTER...WITH THE GFSSLOWLY CATCHING UP WITH THE NAM IN TERMS OF SURFACE TEMP TIMINGAND WARM NOSE DEPTH. NAM REMAINS THE WARMEST MODEL IN TERMS OFSURFACE TEMPS HANGING ON ABOVE FREEZING A BIT LONGER AS WELL ASHAVING THE STRONGEST WARM NOSE ALOFT...WITH THE SREF NOT TOO FARBEHIND. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW LONG FZRA WILL HANG AROUNDNORTHERN AREAS AS THIS WILL CUT INTO THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ADD ABIT TO THE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE IN THE FORECAST.CURRENTLY...REPORTS SHOW THE FZRA BAND TO BE A BIT THIN...BUT MAYGROW AS THE COLD AIR RUNS SOUTHEASTWARD FASTER THIS EVENING ANDWARM AIR ALOFT HANGS AROUND. ALSO...THE ONSET OF SLEET FOLLOWINGFZRA MAY ALSO CUT INTO SNOW AMOUNTS IF THE WARM AIR ALOFT HANGSOUT A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THEDURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING AS WELL ASLATEST MODEL TRENDS. PRECIP TYPE SUMMARY FOR THE EVENT...THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TOGET THE MOST SNOW AS THEY WILL HAVE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOWAS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HAVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEETACCUMULATION IN THE NW NORTH OF I40 AND WEST OF I65 WITH CLOSE TO7 IN THE FAR NW TIP OF THE CWA WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THENEIGHBORS AND IS JUST SHORT OF WPC THINKING. THE BULK OF THE CWALOOKS TO HAVE MAINLY SLEET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENTSURROUNDED BY FZRA AND A MIX IN THE BEGINNING OF THE FROZENTRANSITION IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ANDMAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE. MOSTOF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER END BEINGCLOSER TO THE KY BORDER AND I65. NEAR THE AL BORDER AND AROUNDCROSSVILLE SHOULD SEE MAINLY FZRA AND SLEET WHEN THE FROZEN PRECIPARRIVES...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE. SNOW SHOULD MOVEIN DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERNAREAS. BROUGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN JUST A BIT BUT ALSO INCREASED ICEACCUM TO A RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER FOR THIS AREA. 1 TO3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA ASWELL. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD AIR MOVINGSOUTHWARD AND WARM AIR LINGERING ALOFT...PRECIP TYPES MAY VARY ANDMODIFY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED...STILL LOOKS COLD FOR THE FIRSTPERIOD AFTER THE EVENT AS COLD AIR STICKS AROUND. DOESNT LOOK ASCOLD AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER SNOW/SLEET/ICE AT THE SURFACEWITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWSACROSS THE AREA. FORTUNATELY BELOW ZERO 850 MB TEMPS DONT STICKAROUND LONG...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVERINTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MELT A LOT OF THE FROZEN PRECIP ANDIMPROVE TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MIDDLE TNSHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just checked AccuWeather and they have Oak Ridge, TN under a Winter Storm Warning, but MRX has us under a Winter Weather Advisory. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Absolutely amazing weather in JC. I went out for a run at nice breezy 70 degrees today. I had forgotten how nice it feels! What a setup. This should be interesting to watch unfold. Hope Nashville finally gets thumped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 77F in Madison, AL. We will enjoy it while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Absolutely amazing weather in JC. I went out for a run at nice breezy 70 degrees today. I had forgotten how nice it feels! What a setup. This should be interesting to watch unfold. Hope Nashville finally gets thumped! Much different story to your northwest. No sun today and flooding with temps in the 40s/50s This little creek isn't very wide and has turned into a river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THISEVENING... A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHSTRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THEFOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THEENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIRSURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROMNEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSONTENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ISONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY ATRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERETEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIREMID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ANDSLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. ASPRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECTTHE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDSGUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT INSIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING ANDDRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARDWARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSSNORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OFWEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THECONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHERSOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEERIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AMORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORETRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICEACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES ANDPOWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLYLAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z ANDWILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ANDDEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TOREFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OFTHE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROMWEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICECOVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULDRESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONSPOSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. ASSKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEARZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FARNORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THECOUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUESBELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND ASSNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOMEAND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORERAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Man,Memphis talking about blizzard warning...not to often you see that in the SE much less March Edit:besides you Tri people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Much different story to your northwest. No sun today and flooding with temps in the 40s/50s This little creek isn't very wide and has turned into a river. That is insane! Hope you guys up there stay safe. Well, temps already starting to drop. Was at 70 at 5:30 and now at 58. 12 degree drop in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The RAP radar suggests that things might be interesting here in the eastern valley tomorrow morning. Changeover around 8am at TYS and still going strong at noon. Ice and Sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like the freezing line is now right outside of Nashville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nashville is actually reporting snow as of now. It's down to 44 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like the surface freezing line is just starting to drop into the Nashville Basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like the freezing line is now right outside of Nashville! obs has BNA..35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nashville is actually reporting snow as of now. It's down to 44 here. who reported that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Latest Conditions in Nashville, TN Choose Your Front Page City Mar 4 5:53 pm Light Snow Fog/Mist 35°F (2°C) Select A City: Bowling Green, KY Clarksville, TN Crossville, TN Hopkinsville, KY Nashville, TN Smyrna, TN IT is on there web page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nashville is actually reporting snow as of now. It's down to 44 here. The RAP has been showing all day there being an initial period of snow in the Nashville area prior to switching to red/pink and ultimately back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It seems to me the freezing line is crashing faster than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 The RAP has been showing all day there being an initial period of snow in the Nashville area prior to switching to red/pink and ultimately back to snow. yeah but if you look at the mesoscale verticals that would not be possible in Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 yeah but if you look at the mesoscale verticals that would not be possible in Nashville I agree, I thought it was odd because the 850 freezing line was considerably west of the area. The RAP is known to be sketchy on p-types several hours out, but it's notable that it was showing snow and now we have reports of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 3 pm, crossing back into Tn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 I agree, I thought it was odd because the 850 freezing line was considerably west of the area. The RAP is known to be sketchy on p-types several hours out, but it's notable that it was showing snow and now we have reports of it. probably a spotter making a false report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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