weathertree4u Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Warm nose 850-700mb nose.png So are you saying this is like the storm around the 14th of Feb that was suppose to result in inches of snow but endedup going to KY and giving us sleet and ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 So are you saying this is like the storm around the 14th of Feb that was suppose to result in inches of snow but endedup going to KY and giving us sleet and ice? Not sure to be real honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not sure to be real honest Neither am I at this point either; honestly the snow drought has to end soon; seems like there is something wrong with the 18Z snow maps; the tabular out put would result in more snow than it is depicting around here; just makes me nervous to see the Euro suddenly flip, guess if it is not flipped back over night then I can really worry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 More than half of that qpf is sleet. But ratios should be good. At this juncture I think 2 inches of sleet and 3-6 inches of snow is not out of the question for Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 More than half of that qpf is sleet. But ratios should be good. At this juncture I think 2 inches of sleet and 3-6 inches of snow is not out of the question for Nashville. Agree,the ratios should be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Neither am I at this point either; honestly the snow drought has to end soon; seems like there is something wrong with the 18Z snow maps; the tabular out put would result in more snow than it is depicting around here; just makes me nervous to see the Euro suddenly flip, guess if it is not flipped back over night then I can really worry! Neither am I at this point either; honestly the snow drought has to end soon; seems like there is something wrong with the 18Z snow maps; the tabular out put would result in more snow than it is depicting around here; just makes me nervous to see the Euro suddenly flip, guess if it is not flipped back over night then I can really worry! I wouldn't worry about any model at this point. Right up to events some have been off this year. The bad thing is that not all the same models have been right. One handled a storm well then whiffed on the next storm and so on. But don't worry about the euro. It has consistently buried the western 2/3rds of the state and at 12z today it did again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Boundary is further S so far,believe the NAM is playing catch up,see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Little bit of chaos in parts of Tennessee there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z NAM clowned out at this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 907 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015 .UPDATE... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE OVERALL BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE SO LOWERED POPS A TAD AND REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS...AND TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS WAA INCREASES AND SW LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30 KTS. STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...00Z NAM...21Z SREF...AND HPC CONTINUE OVERALL TREND FOR WINTER STORM ON WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CREATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RESULTANT DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR CWA. 00Z NAM IN PARTICULAR BRINGS COLD FRONT MUCH MORE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY VERSUS OTHER MODELS AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DESPITE STRONG CAA. THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE AS THE POTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG CAA SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT MORE QUICKLY/FURTHER THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRASTICALLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT A LA THE GFS/ECMWF. FORECAST ALREADY LEANS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. OF NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE AROUND 750MB FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE FZRA/IP VERSUS SNOW. ALSO OF NOTE...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE NO COMPARABLE SNOW EVENTS TO THIS ONE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH SHOWS HOW UNUSUAL THIS UPCOMING WINTER STORM SETUP WILL BE. Nashville don't beleive the NAM,good to hear..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM did terrible in our event last week. Good luck yall, I'm pulling for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z GFS: Be interesting to see the text output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z GFS: Be interesting to see the text output. Mostly all ice,hardly any sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is apparently the year of the sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Do you have text for Crossville Jax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Do you have text for Crossville Jax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 csv.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is apparently the year of the sleet storm. Be worse though than than last one,isnt part of your neck of the woods still without power from the last storm,seem i heard it on the news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Be worse though than than last one,isnt part of your neck of the woods still without power from the last storm,seem i heard it on the news Parts of the Plateau are still in the dark. Crossville looks like freezing rain then 4-6 inches of snow. I generally get very similar weather to there or somerset KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 208 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW... WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IN MANY AREAS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE WINDCHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO...AND MAY AID IN SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES WHERE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FALL. ARZ036-048-049-058-MSZ001>005-007-008-010>012-TNZ021-022-049-050- 052>055-088>092-032300- /O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0004.150304T1800Z-150305T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0004.150304T1800Z-150305T1200Z/ CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS- TIPPAH-ALCORN-TUNICA-TATE-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-CARROLL- BENTON TN-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY- FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST MEMPHIS...MARION...FORREST CITY... MARIANNA...WEST HELENA...HELENA...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH... HORN LAKE...HOLLY SPRINGS...ASHLAND...HICKORY FLAT...RIPLEY... CORINTH...NORTH TUNICA...TUNICA...SENATOBIA...COLDWATER... CLARKSDALE...LAMBERT...MARKS...CROWDER...SLEDGE...BATESVILLE... SARDIS...MCKENZIE...HUNTINGDON...BRUCETON...CAMDEN...COVINGTON... MUNFORD...ATOKA...BROWNSVILLE...JACKSON...HENDERSON...LEXINGTON... PARSONS...DECATURVILLE...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE... MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...OAKLAND...GALLAWAY...BOLIVAR... WHITEVILLE...SELMER...ADAMSVILLE...SAVANNAH 208 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. * TIMING...12 PM CST WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM looks better,not sure about the verticals yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM looks better,not sure about the verticals yet yes, seems to be correcting back south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 yes, seems to be correcting back south Still slower than the GFS and Euro.It doesn't allow the colder air to get in quicker.Looking at my text comparing it to the euro and GFS around midnight it's almost 4C warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still slower than the GFS and Euro.It doesn't allow the colder air to get in quicker.Looking at my text comparing it to the euro and GFS around midnight it's almost 4C warmer I would think that we should have models converging on a similar solution around the noon time frame right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 I would think that we should have models converging on a similar solution around the noon time frame right? Cant see them changing much after that,who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 https://api.monosnap.com/rpc/file/download?id=fH6gHmFZBfXbrjEEHdgFATfDlW9U6f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 https://api.monosnap.com/rpc/file/download?id=fH6gHmFZBfXbrjEEHdgFATfDlW9U6f We are so close to the big totals in Sumner county, maybe it will change over faster north of town, either way, it looks like Thursday is a work from home day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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