eastkywx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hey Jax, would you care posting that for JKL? I'm curious to see what it shows. Looks like a pretty decent sleet event followed by a good snow thump for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hey Jax, would you care posting that for JKL? I'm curious to see what it shows. Looks like a pretty decent sleet event followed by a good snow thump for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastkywx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hey Jax, would you care posting that for JKL? I'm curious to see what it shows. Looks like a pretty decent sleet event followed by a good snow thump for my area. Much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z Euro clown: Just looking at the 850mb and surface temps, that run of the Euro doesn't look very icy. Perhaps there is a warm layer elsewhere that would cause it to be sleety, I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I don't have fancy hi-res graphics here...just what we get from SV...but I would say there is a slight backing to the north and west on the 12z Euro vs the previous run. Lets hope that is not the start of a trend for the snow starved western TN Valley denizens. The models keep pumping out the snow accumulations but the vertical profiles are on the edge...could be a big bonanza or more heartache....no way to tell at this stage, Jax.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Well, the NWS has me under a flood watch from tommorow through thursday, for 1-4 inches of rain. Then the snow everyone keeps talking about looks like im right on the edge of around 6 ish if im reading the models correctly. Thursday night lows are going to be in the low single digits. Everything is going to freeze solid, going to be a lot of people sliding all over the place. This is one storm i would actually like a more nw trend. Anyone think that will actually happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 I don't have fancy hi-res graphics here...just what we get from SV...but I would say there is a slight backing to the north and west on the 12z Euro vs the previous run. Lets hope that is not the start of a trend for the snow starved western TN Valley denizens. The models keep pumping out the snow accumulations but the vertical profiles are on the edge...could be a big bonanza or more heartache....no way to tell at this stage, Jax.... thanks,i keep waiting on that key word "fail".It's what we've seen these last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I've not seen today's 12z Ukie yet, but its 0z jogged north and west again. If I recall, it's 12z yesterday was its only run that moved south to match the Euro, it has otherwise been consistently north and west of all other models for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z Euro ensemble mean is identical to OP, control is almost the same but a tad beefier in the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 234 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015 ...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE... .A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY SNOW LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW WILL FALL TO HIGHS IN THE 20S BY THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN...TO A MIX OF PRECIP CONSISTING OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW...AND FINALLY TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SNOWFALL AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH FREEZING RAIN CAUSING ICE ACCUMULATION TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL. MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031100- /O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0003.150304T1800Z-150305T1800Z/ STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON- HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH- JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON- MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD- COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD... GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY... DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET... HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON... JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN... BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY... SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA... MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO... LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI 234 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * TIMING...FROM NOON CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH NOON CST THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. * MAIN IMPACT...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. * OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY WHICH MAY EXTEND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. * MAIN IMPACT...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. * OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY WHICH MAY EXTEND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. Obligatory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 MRX going with the NAM. 2-4 up in my area, sharply lower working south and east, under 1 inch per them. They favor the cold air getting hung up on the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Clearly not going with the 18z nam, which has gone with an entirely different solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM is way N,that would be a big bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Numerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png NAM is way N,that would be a big bummer Still think you ride the esm's,right now.GEFS is a bit faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That was a much weaker, slower, warmer run of the NAM than any model in the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 WPC write up from 20 minutes ago. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMED TO BE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON DAY 2 WITH AMODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW. BYDAY 3...AS PRECIPITATION AGAIN CHANGES FROM RAIN/MIXEDPRECIPITATION TO SNOW...AN AREA OF 4 TO 8 INCHES APPEARS TO BEMODERATELY TO HIGHLY PROBABLE FROM THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYSACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOMECOMBINED TOTALS COULD EXCEED 8 INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONSOF THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ALSOEXPECTED AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW WITH PERHAPS THE GREATESTCHANCES OCCURRING ON DAY 2 OVER ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEEAND ON DAY 3 OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPIINTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS...12Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE REMNANT SHORTWAVE AS IT REACHES THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES HAVE CLOSED UP A BIT FROM THE 00Z RUNS...BUT THEY STILL REMAIN. THE 12Z NAM/CANADIAN REMAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE AGREEABLE 12Z GFS/ECMWF. GIVEN THE CHANGES MADE BY THE GFS AND LITTLE CHANGE SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AT THE SURFACE...THE TWO MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THEIR ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HAD GOTTEN BETTER. BEYOND TUE...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TAKES OVER AND IMPACTS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHEAST...DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT SECTION. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE N-CNTRL U.S. TUE EVENTUAL STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHEAST THU MORNING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM ACCELERATED THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES THAT FORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WED AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS WAS STILL FASTER THAN THE NAM. THIS DIFFERENCE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NEW ENGLAND PORTION OF THE AREA BY WED. THE UKMET AND CMC FRONTS/PRESSURES LAGGED THE EC BY A BIT BY 05/00Z...BUT THE DIFFERENCES WERE NOT PARTICULARLY GREAT...AND THOSE MODELS LAGGED THE GFS. OVERALL...THERE WAS LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE OUR EARLIER PREFERENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Just amazed at how much of the CONUS is under some form of winter weather advisory or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z Ukie has 2-4 inches clown-wise all the way to the plateau, at least it's back south a tad. Not sure on p-types though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z NAM experimenting with the Ukie idea of the past several days, hopefully it comes back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18 gfs also went way north. We'll have to see if it's a hiccup or if the trend is in for this one. It's amazing how large of shifts we see within 72 hours this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 15z SREF still very juicy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z GFS, looks like a road trip to my home town of Paris is in order.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I bet tennesseewx.com is blowing up right now, may have to venture into the chat room later tonight and celebrate with the west TN boys if 0z holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yea,hope Nashville and surrounding area's get what they deserve..Sure has been a while..Look's like maybe more sleet than snow in my area..lol..Ready for gardening myself..Ready to plant some peas If the ground ever dries out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z GFS, looks like a road trip to my home town of Paris is in order.... If I was able, I would offer to drive. My folks live in Murray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z GFS, looks like a road trip to my home town of Paris is in order.... I wonder how much of that is ice? I saw a GFS snowfall map that was much less than that for 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 hopefully the WAA clears out faster,if not refer the the pic above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Warm nose 850-700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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