Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 0z Ukie is stickin to its guns: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 0z Euro control is virtually identical to the op, ensemble mean is less beefy but more widespread. The individuals are screaming, especially Nashville, Jackson, and Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ © © THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 01-MAR 5.1 4.7 133 9603 13004 0.02 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 6.7 5.2 134 9871 19006 RA 0.24 0.02 MON 00Z 02-MAR 6.2 6.4 134 10284 22003 RA 0.10 0.01 MON 06Z 02-MAR 2.5 6.8 132 10423 35006 RA 0.06 0.01 MON 12Z 02-MAR -0.3 5.4 130 10207 01006 ZR 0.11 0.02 MON 18Z 02-MAR 4.8 5.0 131 10857 05007 RA 0.00 0.02 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 2.3 7.1 132 11324 05004 0.00 0.01 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 1.6 9.0 134 11836 13003 0.00 0.01 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 6.6 10.4 135 12009 18006 RA 0.03 0.01 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 14.2 11.0 137 11255 20011 RA 0.15 0.01 WED 00Z 04-MAR 16.4 10.9 138 11340 21012 RA 0.03 0.00 WED 06Z 04-MAR 14.2 9.2 136 11281 30008 RA 0.87 0.00 WED 12Z 04-MAR 0.4 4.6 131 10492 36007 0.68 0.00 WED 18Z 04-MAR -0.3 -0.6 128 7688 35010 IP 0.03 0.03 THU 00Z 05-MAR -5.3 -4.8 127 3734 00008 SN 0.34 0.36 THU 06Z 05-MAR -6.7 -6.3 126 0 01008 SN 0.02 0.37 THU 12Z 05-MAR -7.5 -9.9 125 0 01006 0.00 0.36 THU 18Z 05-MAR -4.2 -12.3 125 0 35008 SN 0.00 0.33 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ © © THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 01-MAR 2.8 6.9 133 10406 02004 0.00 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 5.6 8.2 134 11093 18003 RA 0.14 0.00 MON 00Z 02-MAR 5.7 8.2 134 10871 00005 RA 0.10 0.00 MON 06Z 02-MAR 3.4 8.7 133 11153 02010 RA 0.14 0.00 MON 12Z 02-MAR 1.0 8.0 132 11315 03012 RA 0.13 0.00 MON 18Z 02-MAR 5.0 7.7 132 11583 05008 RA 0.06 0.00 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 4.6 9.3 134 12460 09005 RA 0.00 0.00 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 3.0 10.3 135 12739 14002 RA 0.00 0.00 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 8.3 11.1 136 12971 18007 RA 0.04 0.00 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 17.5 11.5 138 11528 21016 RA 0.07 0.00 WED 00Z 04-MAR 17.7 11.3 138 11935 21017 RA 0.17 0.00 WED 06Z 04-MAR 12.6 9.2 135 11683 34012 RA 1.04 0.00 WED 12Z 04-MAR 1.4 8.4 131 9965 02014 RA 0.14 0.00 WED 18Z 04-MAR -4.9 1.3 128 9709 02016 IP 0.31 0.30 THU 00Z 05-MAR -5.1 -3.1 127 7107 03015 IP 0.33 0.61 THU 06Z 05-MAR -5.5 -6.7 127 0 03011 SN 0.01 0.61 THU 12Z 05-MAR -6.3 -5.9 126 0 02009 0.00 0.61 THU 18Z 05-MAR -3.8 -9.6 126 0 02010 0.00 0.57 FRI 00Z 06-MAR -8.6 -9.5 126 04006 0.00 0.53 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ © © THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 01-MAR 2.0 6.1 133 9684 18004 0.10 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 5.9 5.7 134 10640 16003 RA 0.01 0.08 MON 00Z 02-MAR 5.8 8.7 135 10841 17003 RA 0.03 0.04 MON 06Z 02-MAR 6.1 8.9 135 10703 19003 RA 0.03 0.04 MON 12Z 02-MAR 6.2 7.4 134 10830 35005 RA 0.03 0.04 MON 18Z 02-MAR 4.3 8.8 133 11002 02006 RA 0.09 0.04 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 4.9 9.2 134 11351 03003 RA 0.00 0.04 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 4.3 9.6 135 11507 05002 0.00 0.04 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 7.0 10.3 135 11751 19003 RA 0.06 0.04 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 12.2 10.5 136 11606 17009 RA 0.06 0.02 WED 00Z 04-MAR 14.4 10.9 137 11958 18008 RA 0.03 0.01 WED 06Z 04-MAR 16.4 11.2 138 11482 21011 RA 0.04 0.00 WED 12Z 04-MAR 12.1 8.6 135 11094 33007 RA 0.28 0.00 WED 18Z 04-MAR 8.8 6.5 134 11308 01004 RA 0.26 0.00 THU 00Z 05-MAR 2.0 3.4 131 11097 36009 RA 0.57 0.00 THU 06Z 05-MAR -1.6 0.1 129 10748 35009 ZR 0.10 0.01 THU 12Z 05-MAR -5.7 -2.7 127 8231 36009 IP 0.13 0.15 THU 18Z 05-MAR -2.2 -6.0 127 0 00011 SN 0.02 0.15 FRI 00Z 06-MAR -4.5 -8.9 126 0 00007 SN 0.00 0.13 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ © © THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 01-MAR 0.9 5.3 133 9342 11001 0.13 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 4.0 4.9 133 9726 20001 RA 0.01 0.09 MON 00Z 02-MAR 4.9 6.8 134 10410 24003 RA 0.07 0.08 MON 06Z 02-MAR 5.6 6.9 134 10627 24004 RA 0.05 0.08 MON 12Z 02-MAR 3.5 5.2 132 10220 34003 RA 0.23 0.08 MON 18Z 02-MAR 5.3 4.2 132 10981 03005 RA 0.05 0.04 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 2.5 6.7 133 10980 03004 0.00 0.04 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 2.4 8.2 134 11007 04001 0.00 0.04 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 4.7 9.5 135 11021 06001 RA 0.01 0.04 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 10.3 9.9 135 11662 22002 RA 0.12 0.04 WED 00Z 04-MAR 10.9 10.7 137 11579 19005 RA 0.07 0.03 WED 06Z 04-MAR 14.8 11.0 137 11264 21009 RA 0.04 0.03 WED 12Z 04-MAR 9.8 7.2 135 10694 31003 RA 0.53 0.00 WED 18Z 04-MAR 8.2 3.8 133 10578 33003 RA 0.42 0.00 THU 00Z 05-MAR 1.5 0.3 130 11141 36007 RA 0.41 0.00 THU 06Z 05-MAR -2.9 -1.7 128 11365 01007 IP 0.16 0.08 THU 12Z 05-MAR -7.2 -4.8 126 128 01006 SN 0.11 0.21 THU 18Z 05-MAR -4.6 -9.6 126 5 00006 SN 0.04 0.24 FRI 00Z 06-MAR -5.6 -11.5 126 0 02004 SN 0.00 0.20 FRI 06Z 06-MAR -8.4 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ © © THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 01-MAR -4.4 5.4 132 9001 12002 0.27 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 6.5 5.0 133 8011 27002 RA 0.01 0.17 MON 00Z 02-MAR 3.6 5.8 134 9744 24003 RA 0.03 0.12 MON 06Z 02-MAR 4.2 6.4 134 9734 23004 RA 0.03 0.11 MON 12Z 02-MAR 2.8 3.0 132 9224 28001 RA 0.25 0.08 MON 18Z 02-MAR 4.9 0.9 131 10361 35003 RA 0.06 0.08 TUE 00Z 03-MAR -0.4 3.6 131 10424 04003 0.00 0.04 TUE 06Z 03-MAR -0.4 6.2 132 10354 06002 0.00 0.04 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 2.7 7.6 133 10943 11002 RA 0.01 0.04 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 6.9 9.0 134 11913 10003 RA 0.04 0.04 WED 00Z 04-MAR 5.9 10.5 136 11460 17002 RA 0.02 0.04 WED 06Z 04-MAR 6.8 11.4 137 11151 19003 RA 0.03 0.04 WED 12Z 04-MAR 8.3 6.8 135 10242 30003 RA 0.30 0.04 WED 18Z 04-MAR 8.1 3.8 133 9479 25006 RA 0.22 0.04 THU 00Z 05-MAR 2.9 -0.4 131 9057 00005 RA 0.16 0.03 THU 06Z 05-MAR -3.1 -3.8 128 11451 02006 IP 0.09 0.08 THU 12Z 05-MAR -8.0 -7.8 125 93 02005 SN 0.05 0.12 THU 18Z 05-MAR -4.6 -13.2 126 21 32005 SN 0.04 0.14 FRI 00Z 06-MAR -5.7 -13.9 126 0 32004 SN 0.01 0.14 FRI 06Z 06-MAR -9.5 -12.4 125 0 02003 SN 0.00 0.14 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CSV LAT= 35.95 LON= -85.08 ELE= 1880 12Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ © © THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 01-MAR 0.9 6.4 133 9460 16004 0.06 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 4.9 5.0 133 8899 17004 RA 0.06 0.03 MON 00Z 02-MAR 4.6 6.8 134 10351 19004 RA 0.13 0.03 MON 06Z 02-MAR 5.2 7.0 134 10603 26004 RA 0.03 0.03 MON 12Z 02-MAR 0.0 6.5 131 10527 35006 ZR 0.11 0.03 MON 18Z 02-MAR 5.2 4.6 132 11096 04005 RA 0.01 0.03 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 1.5 6.9 132 11251 07004 0.00 0.03 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 1.7 8.8 134 11680 14004 0.00 0.03 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 5.7 9.8 135 11036 17006 RA 0.03 0.03 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 11.2 10.3 136 11471 19010 RA 0.29 0.03 WED 00Z 04-MAR 13.6 10.9 137 11370 20012 RA 0.08 0.00 WED 06Z 04-MAR 15.2 11.0 137 11485 22012 RA 0.21 0.00 WED 12Z 04-MAR 6.3 6.9 133 10612 31008 RA 0.72 0.00 WED 18Z 04-MAR 2.4 2.9 131 10210 34008 RA 0.26 0.00 THU 00Z 05-MAR -2.8 -1.9 128 8966 35010 IP 0.35 0.22 THU 06Z 05-MAR -6.9 -2.8 127 1040 35009 SN 0.10 0.29 THU 12Z 05-MAR -9.3 -6.1 125 0 36008 SN 0.03 0.33 THU 18Z 05-MAR -6.1 -11.7 125 0 35009 SN 0.00 0.30 FRI 00Z 06-MAR -7.2 -12.3 125 0 35006 SN 0.00 0.29 FRI 06Z 06-MAR -12.1 -7.9 125 0 00004 0.00 0.29 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: HSV LAT= 34.65 LON= -86.77 ELE= 643 12Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ © © THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 01-MAR 5.5 9.6 134 10026 15007 0.03 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 9.4 7.7 135 10519 17004 RA 0.03 0.03 MON 00Z 02-MAR 8.7 9.3 135 10947 17003 RA 0.06 0.03 MON 06Z 02-MAR 8.9 9.2 135 10806 26002 RA 0.11 0.03 MON 12Z 02-MAR 4.3 8.5 134 11127 01008 RA 0.05 0.03 MON 18Z 02-MAR 3.5 9.1 134 11708 03005 RA 0.11 0.03 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 3.9 9.7 134 11338 07002 RA 0.01 0.01 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 6.4 10.8 136 12745 13004 RA 0.00 0.01 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 9.0 11.0 136 12850 16004 RA 0.05 0.01 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 15.9 11.1 137 11982 19008 RA 0.08 0.00 WED 00Z 04-MAR 16.5 11.7 138 12154 19008 RA 0.01 0.00 WED 06Z 04-MAR 16.9 11.7 138 12092 21012 RA 0.06 0.00 WED 12Z 04-MAR 10.5 8.6 135 11361 01007 RA 0.32 0.00 WED 18Z 04-MAR 3.4 6.6 132 11566 00010 RA 0.42 0.00 THU 00Z 05-MAR -1.7 3.5 129 11386 00012 ZR 0.48 0.04 THU 06Z 05-MAR -3.8 0.1 128 10241 01010 IP 0.12 0.16 THU 12Z 05-MAR -6.7 -2.0 127 2889 01009 SN 0.21 0.36 THU 18Z 05-MAR -4.0 -5.5 126 0 00010 0.00 0.35 FRI 00Z 06-MAR -5.1 -7.7 126 0 00006 SN 0.00 0.32 FRI 06Z 06-MAR -10.7 -5.5 126 0 36005 0.00 0.32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 0z Euro control is virtually identical to the op, ensemble mean is less beefy but more widespread. The individuals are screaming, especially Nashville, Jackson, and Memphis. Trying not to get too amped up about the storm but you have any examples? Are there any "big dogs" in the bunch? Could this be the first double digit snow Nashville has had in more than twenty years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 ana cold front,in case you wanted to know what it is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2b_JUg4CnE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Trying not to get too amped up about the storm but you have any examples? Are there any "big dogs" in the bunch? Could this be the first double digit snow Nashville has had in more than twenty years? Nashville, out of 51 members: - All but 2 have snow - 39 are more than 2 inches - 16 are more than 6 inches - 7 are more than 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z GGEM is a p-type toss up. Sleet looks to be dominate, followed by moderate freezing rain, and some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'm surprised the Euro wasn't heavier than that judging by what I could see on WunderMap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Right now I feel like this is an I-40 special. Nothing making me feel too great about chances down here. Could be some nuisance snow/ice for sure. The schools only have 1 snow day left here before they start makeup days. It's just as well that this may miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The 12z Ukie moved south, it now has 2+ inches on the western half of the state with 6+ in far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 257 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... LIGHT RAINS CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM CINCINNATI TO MEMPHIS...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BREAK INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HELP TEMPERATURES START TO FALL OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND AS THE RAIN TRIES TO COME TO AND END ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL OPEN UP SEVERAL AREAS IN THE MID-STATE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. QPFS REMAIN VERY LIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S...I DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. IF WE DO SEE ANY ICE ACCRETION IT MIGHT BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND TREE LIMBS. ROAD SURFACES SHOULD REMAIN UNIMPACTED. FOR THIS REASON...PLUS A LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THERE BEING ENOUGH QPF FOR ICE ACCRETION...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ATTM. IF TRENDS LEAN THAT WAY THIS EVENING...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ONE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF QPFS GET ANY HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT HUNDREDTH OR TWO. A GENERALLY WET PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES MONDAY WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE WARM FRONT IS PART OF A LATE-WINTER SYSTEM THAT MAY VERY WELL BRING US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES WELL OFF TO THE NW OF US. IT WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-STATE ATTM. NAM IS SLOWEST...GFS IS THE FASTEST AND THE EURO SITS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. OVERALL...I HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE EURO TIMING REGARDING FRONTAL PASSAGE. POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD VERY WELL BE THE STORY OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. MODELS ARE...AND HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH MIDDLE TN RESIDING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS 140-170 KT JET...MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF QPF IN A ENVIRONMENT SOLIDLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEDNESDAY`S FRONT. IF WE WENT WITH A 10 TO 1 RATIO...AND EVEN ACCOUNTED FOR LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT`S LIQUID RAINFALL...WE WOULD BE IN LINE FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-STATE. THE GOOD NEWS IS...THIS SET UP IS TYPICALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO THAT KIND OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. WE USUALLY ONLY GET THOSE KIND OF SNOW TOTALS WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING US TO THE SOUTH...MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK. THAT SAID...DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY...I HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT I`M NOT GOING TO ATTACH ANY MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. PLENTY MORE TO COME REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MODELS TO FINALLY REALIZE THEY`RE OVERDOING THE QPF AND BACK OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS. A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN HERE THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS GOING TO DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAIRLY STEEPLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SOMETHING WE DIDN`T REALLY SEE LAST WEEK...SO EVEN IF WE SEE SNOW WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET RID OF IT PRETTY QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNGER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 More ice that run GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) SUN 18Z 01-MAR 46.8 45.7 17004 MON 00Z 02-MAR 47.9 44.7 44.7 43.9 21003 RA 0.08 100 MON 06Z 02-MAR 45.0 35.7 35.7 35.0 35007 RA 0.11 100 MON 12Z 02-MAR 35.8 31.6 31.6 30.6 01006 ZR 0.16 100 MON 18Z 02-MAR 40.0 31.1 40.0 36.4 05006 RA 0.00 80 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 43.8 35.9 35.8 34.0 04004 0.00 54 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 35.9 32.4 32.6 31.4 11003 0.00 76 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 42.2 33.0 42.1 41.4 16005 RA 0.02 93 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 55.8 42.0 55.8 54.7 20010 RA 0.21 100 WED 00Z 04-MAR 60.5 55.9 60.3 58.9 20011 RA 0.05 99 WED 06Z 04-MAR 62.4 59.9 61.5 59.7 22011 RA 0.30 100 WED 12Z 04-MAR 61.4 40.1 40.1 39.7 36006 RA 0.87 100 WED 18Z 04-MAR 39.9 30.1 30.4 30.1 35009 ZR 0.89 100 THU 00Z 05-MAR 30.5 21.6 21.6 20.9 35011 IP 0.42 100 THU 06Z 05-MAR 21.6 17.6 17.6 16.8 36009 SN 0.11 100 THU 12Z 05-MAR 17.6 15.2 15.3 14.1 00006 SN 0.01 100 THU 18Z 05-MAR 21.0 15.1 21.0 20.0 34009 SN 0.01 100 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 21.4 11.8 11.8 10.6 34005 SN 0.01 77 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 11.6 3.0 3.1 1.7 36004 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 3.1 0.9 1.6 -0.2 08003 0.00 0 FRI 18Z 06-MAR 31.0 1.5 30.9 28.9 14002 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 07-MAR 34.1 19.8 20.0 16.7 23002 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 07-MAR 25.0 19.0 23.0 20.9 24004 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 07-MAR 23.0 18.7 19.7 17.3 22003 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z NAM...18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...21Z SREF AND WPC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR EARLY MARCH MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING AREAS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS STILL REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND COULD EASILY CHANGE...AS OF NOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE CWA COULD GO THROUGH ALL PHASES OF PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW AS THE INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DEEPENS. MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT ON TIMING WITH FRONT...WITH GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST...AND THIS ALONG WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AT 700MB WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP ENDS UP PREVAILING AT ANY ONE LOCATION. ATTM...SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED! SHAMBURGER http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OHX&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nice storm for Mem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z GFS....I believe some of this will be ice/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z NAM Also wouldn't be surprised to see these total cut somewhat due to ice mixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO MID TN. THE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WX AS MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO MID TN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW PREVAILING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WITH SOME SLEET) COULD ADD UP TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME WE THINK INTO WARNING CRITERIA (MORE THAN 3)...BUT WE WANT TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH...MAYBE LATER TODAY IF MODEL SUPPORT CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE SOME ICE POTENTIAL...BUT THIS EVENT LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW THAN ICE FOR MID TN. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE...BUT WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS UNDER PERFORM...THIS EVENT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS AS POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES PLUMMET...AND ROADS BECOME SNOW/ICE COVERED AND SLICK. IMPACTS WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE FAR EXTENDED...SO BLENDING WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND. 13 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OHX&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z NAM: Looks like middle and west is set for a decent winter storm. Best of luck to you all, hopefully it will be more snow than anything else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I knew we were getting into the time frame where west and middle TN were going to get NAM'ed. Clown maps from the NAM rarely disappoint, lol. Like Stove said, good luck to you guys. I hope you get a great snow from this and I hope the ZR stays away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 9z SREF mean snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Holy Crackamoley mid Tennesseans. I am REALLY hoping you guys bust the stupid snow dome that so many talk about like it's gospel. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Should be some decent ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Warm nose 850-700mb,gonna be alot of IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Warm nose 850-700mb,gonna be alot of IP AccuWeather.com® Professional Forecast Model Text Information.png So what is your best guess based on what you have seen as far as the amount of snow we are talking - I think the record for Nashville is 17" are we approaching that at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Like the anafront video previous page. The main point is that cold fronts are steeper than warm fronts. Anafront is hybrid in steepness, but it explains models favoring sleet over freezing rain. North Mississippi I'm afraid will have shallower cold air and therefore a chance of more ZR ice accumulation. I-40 to I-81 corridor looks like snow and sleet, but I couldn't tell you which will be majority if I had to. Just keep the ZR off the power lines, lol! I strongly agree with Dwagner about Chattanooga and southeast Tenn. We may be coming off 60 degree highs Wednesday. Good luck getting cold air over the Plateau in time. Yeah it is a deeper layer, but I can still see most precip ending before it settles in this part of the Valley. North Alabama will depend on how much precip post front. If you believe the Euro plenty of winter precip lags the front. Jumping north, Middle and East Kentucky could get a snow dump. Go Big Blue? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 So what is your best guess based on what you have seen as far as the amount of snow we are talking - I think the record for Nashville is 17" are we approaching that at all? We won't get 17"sn,it looks like a slush puppy to me.Just hope the zr is limited before the verticals are good enough for sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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