Stovepipe Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Pretty big differences between the RAP and HRRR at this point. Until they converge on a similar solution I don't really know what to expect here in terms of timing and duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The front end of the precip shield is ragged and falling apart. This is the part of the shield that is above freezing. A lot of TN doesn't have precip right now. I thought it would be filled in much more by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazenmp Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just north of Fairview, freezing rain just turned to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazenmp Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 And the wind is blowing pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Temp has fallen from 47 last hour down to 42 now with a pretty good NW breeze. Currently got a steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Getting blasted here. Unable to get a decent measurement- will get one in the morning- winds really picking up- around 20 mph, gusts past 30.....air temp 19, wind chill around 5. Still more to come....enjoying this rare event...hope you guys eastward get some of this! More pics in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Congratulations West Tn! You guys are going to have a beautiful scene tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazenmp Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Snow north of Fairview now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Currently 34 degrees here, pretty decent flooding going on in my area. The road is indeed turning into a river and it's raining heavily right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Same ole crap,everything is going S or N of us.Just don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/SWRN TN...NWRN AL...CNTRL/NRN MS...SRN AR...NRN LA...NERN TX CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 050554Z - 051200Z SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD A BROAD REGION FROM NERN TX ENEWD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION AND NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. DISCUSSION...THE INTERACTION OF A MIDLEVEL VORT MAX EMERGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FARTHER N IS SUPPORTING THE EWD SPREAD OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX TO THE ARKLATEX REGION -- PER RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS. PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING THAT ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION...CONTINUES FORMING WITHIN THIS REGIME...WITH AREAS OF EARLIER-DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION SPREADING EWD TOWARD PARTS OF E-CNTRL TX. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN AN ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME...WITH CONTINUED EWD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY ABOVE 0C IN MANY LOCATIONS...AMPLE COLD ADVECTION...COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N WITH RESULTANT WET-BULB COOLING...WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD PROMINENT SFC TEMPERATURE REDUCTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 0C ISOTHERM PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN TOWARD SRN AR TO NEAR WACO TX...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ADVANCING ON A SWD/SEWD TRAJECTORY. GIVEN THE WEAKLY SLOPING NATURE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NWD/NWWD...RESIDUAL WARM AIR ABOVE THE SFC SAMPLED BY THE 00Z SHV AND BNA RAOBS WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT OWING TO REFREEZING WITHIN THE SFC-BASED...SUB-FREEZING...POST-FRONTAL COLD LAYER. THIS WILL LIKELY EXTEND SWD TO PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05 INCH TO LOCALLY 0.10 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE...HIGHEST IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES OF ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER INCH PER HOUR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MORE COMMON ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN INTO SWRN TN...WHERE COOLING OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO REDUCE MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. COMPARISONS WITH RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MODEST WARM BIASES IN SFC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND NAM. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION AND VICINITY WHERE LOCAL-FLOW CHANNELING ACCENTUATES NEAR-SFC COLD ADVECTION IN VALLEY-PARALLEL...NLY FLOW. THIS SUBSTANTIATES THE SWD EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WHILE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOME OF THESE AREAS DURING THE PRECEDING DAY -- ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF LA/MS -- MAY INHIBIT INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OWING TO A WARMER GROUND...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND METAL OBJECTS. ..COHEN.. 03/05/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Same ole crap,everything is going S or N of us.Just don't get it Hopefully the dry slot will fill in some. A batch of precip looks to be on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sorry Jax. I posted a screenshot and it's unbelievable to see the screwjob your getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 it is hard to believe but Huntsville has shown snow for the last 2 hours. As of 3 pm it now shows unknown but the previous 2 hours they reported snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Heavy sleet here. Around 1/2 inch of it on the ground. 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Now getting some sleet with mostly snow. Not very heavy on either front as of now. With luck I'll be able to stay more snow than anything else. Very little freezing rain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 finally snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Glad to hear it. Now push that over the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 33F, and it is pouring sleet in Madison. Radar is showing snow, but the mets say is is sleet and freezing rain. Roads are getting bad very quickly; out in Florence the roads have been declared impassable. Roads are getting shut down all over the area; thunder-sleet has been reported in Moulton. This is much worse than I expected; you folks in western Tennessee must be getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Cold air is having hard time getting over plateau. Temp has actually went from 36 to 37 in Oakridge the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 forgot what heavy snow looked like it's been so long,a dusting so far maybe we can get a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 forgot what heavy snow looked like it's been so long,a dusting so far maybe we can get a inch So glad to see you getting snow. I am sure the frustration has been intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allowat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Temp down to 30.1 in HSV with moderate sleet. Roads are covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 34 and rain here, but I expect being at 34 it won't be long until freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Traffic cams out of Nashville look good...even I 40 is covered...must have been a good amount of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tennessee Gal Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Freezing rain a little NE of downtown Crossville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Heavier rain just moved in and temp and dew point is falling faster now. Temp down to 33, and dew point down to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Traffic cams out of Nashville look good...even I 40 is covered...must have been a good amount of sleet. 1.25" that might even be over doing it with everything flying around like off the roof..etc..etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Wintry morning in campbell county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 awesome! congrats to everyone seeing wintry weather, especially Nashville area. Been a great second half of winter! I'm at 36 degrees with moderate rain. Don't expect a change over in time here but ill be looking out the window anyways lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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