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3/1-3/2 Winter Storm OBS Thread


UnionWeatherWx

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Once again, Suffolk always somehow ends up being the jackpot in every storm. LOL, joking aside, I think this was a really nice event here, and should be treated as such. There shouldn't be much competition, it's a very nice snow event (with the exception of those places that iced over in Central and South Jersey, that's not a good scenario unfortunately). But yeah, I also think warnings should get extended back further west into Nassau and the boroughs.

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Been 80-90% sleet for most of the past hour - every once in awhile, more snow mixes in, but then goes back to nearly all sleet.  Any chance the snow line pushes back south of here?  

 

As an aside, it's amazing how far off those WSI/Intellicast radars have been on this storm - they still only show the "pink" (sleet, presumably) from Trenton to Sandy Hook, when it's been at least from Lambertville to Staten Island for over an hour.  

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What a waste of good precip. Only had around an inch to inch and a half of snow before changeover but Mt. Holly did get it right again so good for them.

 

 

I got 2 and a half here in extreme northern Middlesex county. Yes, 1 to 3 ended up being a good call for Middlesex county. Mount Holly did a good job with the idea of mixing coming in earlier. It was fun how heavy the snow was before the changeover though. Some silver dollar sized flakes.

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Guest Pamela

Once again, Suffolk always somehow ends up being the jackpot in every storm.

 

I know its strange...considering we're just "the coast"...and invariably forecast to receive the least.  Like I once wrote about habits; they are hard to break.

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You needed to wait to see how this played out . Anyone N of 78 may get 4 to 6 .

I thank you , you made a good forecast then jumped B4 you verified .

The best forecasts are made by those with a good deal of weather knowledge as well as a general knowledge of the way models handle different types of systems (type 1)...(I'd say you're in that group).....some seem to rely strictly on their weather knowledge and largely ignore the models (type 2). Personally, without the wealth of meteorological knowledge that many of you possess, my thinking and calls are based primarily on model trends, model reliability given the options available, and an understanding of the model data of different types of systems (getting there)...(type 3). Most of the calls I've made have verified this winter, coincidentally because the models (certain ones at certain times at least) HAVE actually been RELIABLE, although the tone across the board (pun intended somewhat) is that they've been terrible. This storm was actually modeled well, but I really thought they were overdone with snow amounts in the metro area and that mixing would win out sooner. My two points here.....if you have an abundance of weather knowledge and know the models very well, you'll have the best forecasts with the best verification odds. Also, weather models are not as terrible as we make them out to be!
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Its a race, the heavy precp rates are here and currently in NYC we are winning with 1+in hr rates. Already at 3 inches at Kew Gardens. We just need 2-3 more hours and we will bust high. UPTON making a mistake not issuing warnings, stubborn because they switched projected accum from 2-4 to 4-6 inches ( 6 inches is cutoff for warning)

In any case dont care, lets bust high and talk later about them busting! N oone is perfect!

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