Nov. 16-17 GL/Apps. Runner

[Powerball]

Looks a little too warm for snow, but there's a SLIGHT chance if everything plays out just right, many areas could be looking at their first coating of snow.

If nothing else it looks like a fairly decent rainmaker, which will help the drought conditions.

[Chicago WX]

12z GFS slp location on this image sorta reminds me of Dec 15-16, 2007...sans the lack of cold, etc.

If it happens, going to be too warm here obviously, but it'd be nice to get the rainfall.

[snowstormcanuck]

Looks a little too warm for snow, but there's a SLIGHT chance if everything plays out just right, many areas could be looking at their first coating of snow.

If nothing else it looks like a fairly decent rainmaker, which will help the drought conditions.

Powerball,

what was sn over at eastern?

[Chicago WX]

12z GFS a smidge east, with the NAM still "way east". Bottom line is it looks like it's over for any rainfall in LAF. Sucks for here, but hopefully some decent downpours occur for those farther east that need it.

[Chicago Storm]

12z GFS a smidge east, with the NAM still "way east". Bottom line is it looks like it's over for any rainfall in LAF. Sucks for here, but hopefully some decent downpours occur for those farther east that need it.

Looks like an ECMWF like solution is the way to go.

[Chicago WX]

Looks like an ECMWF like solution is the way to go.

I agree with that.

[Hoosier]

12z GFS a smidge east, with the NAM still "way east". Bottom line is it looks like it's over for any rainfall in LAF. Sucks for here, but hopefully some decent downpours occur for those farther east that need it.

Yeah I think you're right. Our chances for a *decent* rain are fading and we may not get anything.

[BowMeHunter]

Looks like an ECMWF like solution is the way to go.

Stebo will come along and say not so fast

[Chicago WX]

Yeah I think you're right. Our chances for a *decent* rain are fading and we may not get anything.

We're toast. But it looks like the drought areas to our south and east will get some relief.

[Chicago WX]

The 18z NAM has joined the party.

[Stebo]

Stebo will come along and say not so fast

Yep Stebo was sleeping, but Euro is now the outlier with the NAM coming in at 18Z West a ton. Trust me, Its very hard to get a low that will go up the spine of the mountains, it will go on one side of them. This time it will be West next time could be East (doubt it )

[Chicago Storm]

NAM still playing catch up...moved even further west.

[Chicago WX]

NAM still playing catch up...moved even further west.

Good thing this isn't all snow. It would have been a painful, painful miss for Hoosier and I.

[KokomoWX]

Good thing this isn't all snow. It would have been a painful, painful miss for Hoosier and I.

That is so close it isn't even funny.

[Powerball]

It's quite funny that we can always manage to get these perfect low pressure tracks when we don't have the cold air avaliable.

[Stebo]

Talk about an "if only it was January" track.

[Ajdos]

Just checked out the 00z GFS, note at hour 24 some colder air is mixing down, (S/W Kentucky 540 small circle) that is an indicator that this storm has the potential to pull in some colder air.. How much we shall see. In any case, I would not be surprised if Detroit does see some snowflakes, maybe a heavier burst of snow before the storm pulls away.

[patrick7032]

Just checked out the 00z GFS, note at hour 24 some colder air is mixing down, (S/W Kentucky 540 small circle) that is an indicator that this storm has the potential to pull in some colder air.. How much we shall see. In any case, I would not be surprised if Detroit does see some snowflakes, maybe a heavier burst of snow before the storm pulls away.

Yeah Stebo and I noticed something. Bufkit profile for KDTW shows a 2C dewpoint at 10am then rises to 7-9C over southeastern lower, yet the LLVL wind is 090 backing to 040....not gonna get theta advection under those conditions....and when I look at it dynamically it almost has a CSI setup look to it which would allow for more of a convective looking precip potential which may wet bulb/condensationly cool the profile for some mixed stuff to occur during my shift tomorrow night.

[Powerball]

Yeah Stebo and I noticed something. Bufkit profile for KDTW shows a 2C dewpoint at 10am then rises to 7-9C over southeastern lower, yet the LLVL wind is 090 backing to 040....not gonna get theta advection under those conditions....and when I look at it dynamically it almost has a CSI setup look to it which would allow for more of a convective looking precip potential which may wet bulb/condensationly cool the profile for some mixed stuff to occur during my shift tomorrow night.

It's going to be a long shot however with the 1000-850mb thickness above 1320m and 925mb temps greater than 3C throughout the entire event. Even on the GFS dewpoints are at or above 40*F for majority of the event (you need dewpoints at least below 35*F for any wet bulbing).

Not even a CCB will do the trick with that type of warm air.

[Powerball]

This storm hopefully is the shadow of things to come in the next 1-3 months.

We're well overdue for a winter of Apps. Runners.

[patrick7032]

It's going to be a long shot however with the 1000-850mb thickness above 1320m and 925mb temps greater than 3C throughout the entire event. Even on the GFS dewpoints are at or above 40*F for majority of the event (you need dewpoints at least below 35*F for any wet bulbing).

Not even a CCB will do the trick with that type of warm air.

True but I have seen it before where both models were 5-8 deg high on the dew when it was only 6 hours out and instead the actual conds at metro were 10 cooler on temp....I'm not saying it will occur....just that it's now close enough to possibly cool as new data now shows a -2C dew at metro and begins precip by 6pm so although it may not be cool enough to wet bulb, having started out at -2 it will be interesting to watch....I'll be busy either way as data shows LCLs being low enough to be in LIFR conditions, but the airlines always love it when the mixed crap hits.

[Chicago WX]

Eh the 0z NAM actually deposits about 0.3-0.4" of QPF here. Dewpoints are in the mid to upper 30's but low level WAA crashes the party. I'd just as soon sacrifice the frozen part to get a decent rain out of this. Of course I won't be saying this much longer.

[Powerball]

True but I have seen it before where both models were 5-8 deg high on the dew when it was only 6 hours out and instead the actual conds at metro were 10 cooler on temp....I'm not saying it will occur....just that it's now close enough to possibly cool as new data now shows a -2C dew at metro and begins precip by 6pm so although it may not be cool enough to wet bulb, having started out at -2 it will be interesting to watch....I'll be busy either way as data shows LCLs being low enough to be in LIFR conditions, but the airlines always love it when the mixed crap hits.

In this case were dealing with a very mositure-laden storm (gulf low), and some models are even hinting at a marginal atlantic connection, so I don't expect the model dewpoints to be too far off (and upstream observations support this).

And before the winds veer to a more favorable direciton, we must first contend with a east wind directly off the warm lakes, which will locally warm/moisten the boundary layer even more.

[cmichweather]

i can tell you from experience so far this season that the nam is a bit to cool with 850's and CAA on the backside of storms at least it was with the superstorm in october had us getting snow in grand forks while the gfs stayed warmer, the warmer solution verified and never saw a flake, nam may be cooling the profile a bit to quickly but we'll see

[Hoosier]

Eh the 0z NAM actually deposits about 0.3-0.4" of QPF here. Dewpoints are in the mid to upper 30's but low level WAA crashes the party. I'd just as soon sacrifice the frozen part to get a decent rain out of this. Of course I won't be saying this much longer.

First thing I checked when I came on was the 00z runs and I see they are taking us for a ride. I had all but given up hope on getting any noteworthy precip, and it still might not happen (guess it depends on what "noteworthy" is) but things are looking more interesting.

[Stebo]

First thing I checked when I came on was the 00z runs and I see they are taking us for a ride. I had all but given up hope on getting any noteworthy precip, and it still might not happen (guess it depends on what "noteworthy" is) but things are looking more interesting.

Well as long as you guys get some rain down there, at least in Southern IN, it will help alot.

[IWXwx]

First thing I checked when I came on was the 00z runs and I see they are taking us for a ride. I had all but given up hope on getting any noteworthy precip, and it still might not happen (guess it depends on what "noteworthy" is) but things are looking more interesting.

It appears that cyclogenesis is occurring a little NW of what the GFS shows. LAF may indeed be in the ballgame and I may be in the sweet spot if I can get the deform band at bit further east. Oh, if it was only later in the year with some cold air to work with.

[Ajdos]

Well we shall see, you can always get the column to cool down, especially since this storm is pretty strong.. Also Ive noted that maybe some snow is mixing atm in S/W Kentucky already... I hope this is the establishment of our winter's fury .. ORRRR, maybe our winters torch. LOL *Winter Hair-loss Pattern" LOLL

[Chicago WX]

It appears that cyclogenesis is occurring a little NW of what the GFS shows. LAF may indeed be in the ballgame and I may be in the sweet spot if I can get the deform band at bit further east. Oh, if it was only later in the year with some cold air to work with.

I think we're going to be a bit too far west to see anything of consequence. IND and MIE look good for a decent soaker though...which is good that somebody in the drought area is getting some.

[snowstormcanuck]

12km WRF putting a 1.50" bullseye around Toronto. Could be the most rain since August but I'm a little suspicious as we've got about a 6 hour opportunity for +RA before the dryslot works its way in. The rain will have more longevity along the defo band across Lk Huron/E MI.