mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 CR, Do you see Fri/Sat supposed event for the Triangle trending NW? I can almost feel it this far out. I'm not RC, but I think since about 2 days ago, y'all have been looking better and more frozen. This would more than likely trend further SE than models have progged now, this is a serious and almost unheard of for this time of year, the cold push! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I don't use the aviation models like the RAP and HRRR for winter weather much. It's not their forte.I'm assuming you live around here somewhere, did you actually get accum snow at your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Lol...good one! No seriously, I see the same sn's here all the time no matter what time I login. I also notice most of you don't donate either. lol. Mobile phones and tablets are amazing devices. Plus it helps I work from home/local pc repair and stuff. Speaking of which, I need you to mail me the entire AWIPS setup please. I want 9 screens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 CR, Do you see Fri/Sat supposed event for the Triangle trending NW? I can almost feel it this far out. this isn't a setup than can really trend NW, its anafrontal so once you go cold it stays that way, its more a question of how much overrunning moisture there is and if there are any more organized waves to intensify the QPF etc....Also distance behind the front will have a lot to do with Ptypes but most of NC should be all snow if the models are right......at least after a period of sleet. MHX has actually put it in our forecast this far out which is surprising to me..they are usually really conservative with winter weather, Thursday Rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night A chance of snow and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 I know it's the 84hr NAM, but look at the HUGE difference between it and the GFS at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It has rained a lot today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 We need to start a betting pool for weather. Everyone submits there predictions for cities throughout the SE for each event and pays an entry fee. Top 3 get prizes. Could also make some money for AmWx as well. Prob illegal though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 what about the sref? I see you guys use it in your discussions alot. The SREF plumes are always a good tool imo for ptype. Maybe not so much for qpf. I've seen it have wildly varying amounts on the plan views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'm assuming you live around here somewhere, did you actually get accum snow at your house? I got about 2 inches here in G-ville. Pretty bad bust across the srn half of the CWFA. I think we only verified warning levels mainly across the NC zones. It wont be the last big bust I'm sure and it will make another good case study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This next threat is a yawn fest, can we just skip it and get to severe wx season? I rather jump ahead to hurricane season but, that's probably going to be boring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Do you, after last week? Win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Double barreled high pressure system Luz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Double barreled high pressure system Luz Go ahead, make my day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Whoever argues you have to have a neg nao/ao to have a good winter in NC has to have their head in the sand the past 2 years. RDU has finished D,J,F ABOVE AVG SNOWFALL WISE and BELOW NORMAL COLD. Greensboro is the same. Feb at RDU was -9.5 unreal Highlights of the winter where obviously November and A FAB,FAB,FAB February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Whoever argues you have to have a neg nao/ao to have a good winter in NC has to have their head in the sand the past 2 years. RDU has finished D,J,F ABOVE AVG SNOWFALL WISE and BELOW NORMAL COLD. Greensboro is the same. Feb at RDU was -9.5 unreal Highlights of the winter where obviously November and A FAB,FAB,FAB February. The winter finally behaved like a classic cold weak El Niño/+PDO but it took til Feb. to do it. The predominance of +NAO/AO battled it until it lost bigtime in Feb. Interestingly, DJF ended up ~-2 at PDK in NE ATL when all was said and done, which is pretty impressive considering the mild Dec. my prediction was for -3 or colder in ATL for DJF. So, my forecast was too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I have cancelled my model suite so don't have a clue about the possible storm on Thursday. To be honest I'm kind of pulling against this one. I'm ready for some warmer weather and sunshine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I have cancelled my model suite so don't have a clue about the possible storm on Thursday. To be honest I'm kind of pulling against this one. I'm ready for some warmer weather and sunshine! Your weenie card has been revoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Was Atlanta the only major city along the I-20 corridor to get completely shut out this winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Your weenie card has been revoked. LOL, I know...To be honest it was probably revoked a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Was Atlanta the only major city along the I-20 corridor to get completely shut out this winter ?Pretty sure Columbia was blanked and Carrollton metroplex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Pretty sure Columbia was blanked and Carrollton metroplex didn't Columbia get a ton of snow in November ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 didn't Columbia get a ton of snow in November ? I think the airport only got a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Pretty sure Columbia was blanked and Carrollton metroplex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This next threat is a yawn fest, can we just skip it and get to severe wx season? I'll take the threat, but honestly it's hard to even consider it a threat here. It's the kind of setup that really rarely works out in these parts. Maybe it'll work out for the Deep South in AL/MS, but I have my doubts there, too. I've got to fly from Greensboro -> Charlotte -> Miami -> Lima -> Cusco on Friday, so whatever happens I hope it doesn't linger into Friday and screw that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 7 degrees below normal in Feb, plentiful moisture, and only a trace of snow and Ice. Next winter can only be better, that's for sure. I can't ever remember a winter where we had so much cold and nothing to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Since we are in March it will be interesting reading Cohens explanation about the SAI and why it failed horribly. Also going forward it will be interesting if we can get back to some blocking in the NAO region in the coming winters. Seems like the last good blocking in the NAO region was January of 2011. That is a good bit of time between some good blocking in the NAO region. Also isohum thanks for all the Q and A . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Since we are in March it will be interesting reading Cohens explanation about the SAI and why it failed horribly. Also going forward it will be interesting if we can get back to some blocking in the NAO region in the coming winters. Seems like the last good blocking in the NAO region was January of 2011. That is a good bit of time between some good blocking in the NAO region. Also isohum thanks for all the Q and A . He'll probably come up with some QBO mess. We should make the Isohume thing a weekly deal...like a Sunday afternoon fireside chat with Isohume! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 He'll probably come up with some QBO mess. We should make the Isohume thing a weekly deal...like a Sunday afternoon fireside chat with Isohume! Yeah that was really cool of him to chime in and answer some questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Well that about wraps it up this year. I'll give this winter a C-. Dec and Jan were terrible. February was pretty nice with two underperforming "threats" that produced winter precip. Next year has to have blocking and a southern stream....that's what I'm looking for. Also looking for the pattern that manifests itself in December. It seems like the pattern that shows usually sticks around for the most part through the winter. I'd also be interested in hearing Cohen backpeddle. Truly, winter forecasting is simply not worth the paper it's written on. There's always something unforeseen that screws up the forecast. Analogs are the same. However it was interesting that Webber kept touting February being better for Nino's etc and that held true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Well that about wraps it up this year. I'll give this winter a C-. Dec and Jan were terrible. February was pretty nice with two underperforming "threats" that produced winter precip. Next year has to have blocking and a southern stream....that's what I'm looking for. Also looking for the pattern that manifests itself in December. It seems like the pattern that shows usually sticks around for the most part through the winter. I'd also be interested in hearing Cohen backpeddle. Truly, winter forecasting is simply not worth the paper it's written on. There's always something unforeseen that screws up the forecast. Analogs are the same. However it was interesting that Webber kept touting February being better for Nino's etc and that held true. Yep, Webber and the weak Niño for the win for Feb being very cold and active. Webber IMO absolutely deserves kudos for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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