Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March Banter


JoshM

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 849
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I stay logged on with my phone, and don't bother to sign out, so it shows me on all the time. How's it looking for Thursdav, lol

 

I guess I'm just jealous of y'alls free time, seems everyone is posting no matter what time I login too. Thursday looks nuts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

mostly for myself. I sometimes help out some other local companies on certain projects. But it's mostly for myself. I stayed logged on all the time cause it's pulled up on my phone.

 

Ahh...that explains it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol.. quick question. How are the gsp snowmaps generated? I noticed closer to the event on Wednesday that totals were getting lower for up here when models had the same forecast or were increasing.

 

It's always a combination of things (thermal/dynamical profiles,qpf uncertainties, model performances/biases, etc) and it depends on the individual forecaster. Each forecaster has a different forecast process and specific tools they like to use in the grids. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's always a combination of things (thermal/dynamical profiles,qpf uncertainties, model performances/biases, etc) and it depends on the individual forecaster. Each forecaster has a different forecast process and specific tools they like to use in the grids.

Don't go with the Rap. It's a moron.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't use the aviation models like the RAP and HRRR for winter weather much. It's not their forte.

You can say that again. The Rap gave parts of the area 20" after the event was underway the other day. The HRRR eventually got the placement of the snow fairly correct, eventually. The RGEM has been doing very well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can say that again. The Rap gave parts of the area 20" after the event was underway the other day. The HRRR eventually got the placement of the snow fairly correct, eventually. The RGEM has been doing very well.

 

I don't trust what those models do with elevated convection (even a little and esp the HRRR). I've see the HRRR hang onto erroneous bands even after it was initialized with new Nexrad data showing no precip. It is it's own worse enemy sometimes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't trust what those models do with elevated convection (even a little and esp the HRRR). I've see the HRRR hang onto erroneous bands even after it was initialized with new Nexrad data showing no precip. It is it's own worse enemy sometimes.

Gotcha. What is the best situation in which to use those models? We tend to look at them most here when evaluating snowfall potential and assessing the strength and location of thunderstorms during convective events. But neither of those may be useful (you mentioned the lack of value with snowfall already).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gotcha. What is the best situation in which to use those models? We tend to look at them most here when evaluating snowfall potential and assessing the strength and location of thunderstorms during convective events. But neither of those may be useful (you mentioned the lack of value with snowfall already).

 

I'm not saying don't use them in winter weather...but they haven't given me much value. I use them more for convect initiation and anticipating storm mode/motion.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't trust what those models do with elevated convection (even a little and esp the HRRR). I've see the HRRR hang onto erroneous bands even after it was initialized with new Nexrad data showing no precip. It is it's own worse enemy sometimes.

what about the sref? I see you guys use it in your discussions alot.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CR, Do you see Fri/Sat supposed event for the Triangle trending NW? I can almost feel it this far out. :axe:

It could, but this isn't the same setup as some of the ones we've had this winter. We don't get as many of these anafrontal situations as prefrontal ones. The cold will be for real. If the cold filters in in time, we could get snow from that. Then, if we get a wave to develop along the front, we could get snow from that process. For that, we'll have to see where/when/if it develops. Lots of questions marks. Potential is there though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...