Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs is huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yes the text output is much more inline with what I saw. Why the map has so much more, I don't understand. I'll e-mail them and try to get an answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS=winning 9-12" SEPA 12" jackpot Philly and SJ 6-8" Lehigh Valley Groundhog bust redemption storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here's the GFS Snowfall map.. Seeing that nice color orange showing up... Just amazing for March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 And we still have one more day to fine tune the details.. Pretty wild. Can't loose site of today's winter weather later this afternoon.. be safe out there driving when you all head back home later today.. Looking like a nice snow day to take and track this event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The models look interesting to say the least, I guess the radar will have the final say on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 I bumped my expectations for TTN up to 5-10. So they'll get 4 or 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS has the Lehigh Valley on the cliff of death with the cutoff. 3" far north to 8" south the gradient is huge. 9-10" imby to 3" 30 miles north of here. I'm terrified of sharp gradients Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS has the Lehigh Valley on the cliff of death with the cutoff. 3" far north to 8" south the gradient is huge. 9-10" imby to 3" 30 miles north of here. I'm terrified of sharp gradients Yep Colin already calling it 2-4 for the lehigh valley "big shift south on every model" hmmm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yep Colin already calling it 2-4 for the lehigh valley "big shift south on every model" hmmm Sent from my iPhone It would be nice to see a favorable shift just 20 miles north it would benefit everybody in this forum there is wiggle room to not screw the southern crowd. Any further south shift would be for the northern reaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 **** Big reminder those GFS totals include 2-3" for this afternoons event that will get washed away for the most part. so a 6-9" storm for SEPA and 2-5" Lehigh Valley on Wed night Yeah it's complicated lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 UKMET and GGEM destroy DC, GGEM pulls the heaviest snow axis south of Philly not sure about UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 UKMET and GGEM destroy DC, GGEM pulls the heaviest snow axis south of Philly not sure about UKMET Here we go... Collins not lookin so stupid after all Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here we go... Collins not lookin so stupid after all Sent from my iPhone GGEM is hideous for us northern folk, 6" for Philly though 1" of that is today. UH OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM is hideous for us northern folk, 6" for Philly though 1" of that is today. UH OH Wonderful. Where's summer Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM is hideous for us northern folk, 6" for Philly though 1" of that is today. UH OH Wouldn't it figure that as soon as I pull the 5-10" forecast out, a south trend would start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The model flips and flops were wild at this point with that storm. GGEM and UKMET never had it so it never a high certainty we were getting the blizzard. Much better odds this go around. That storm also was much more dynamic, with a much steeper gradient, making bust potential much greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wouldn't it figure that as soon as I pull the 5-10" forecast out, a south trend would start... lol NAM went south and we all shrugged that it was just falling in line. GFS comes in EPIC. All systems go..... GGEM/ UKMET come in as a roadside IED *BOOM* Meanwhile Quakertowneedsnow is breathing a sigh of relief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ukie is a huge hit for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Also heard the GFS ensembles were NW of the op for like the 15 consecutive run so guess that's good news Redsky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ukie is a huge hit for Philly. Yes good for Philly and south, big gradient north of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 UKMET is 8-12" SEPA - not counting this afternoon either, it's better than GFS. 12+" South Jersey, Delaware crushed 3-6" Lehigh Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z ECM run is going to referee the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Slowly getting interested in this event. GFS (12z) was a very encouraging run. At least there should be some wild dynamics. Might be worth staying up late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ray, that (GFS) would be our biggest snow since Dec 26, 2010. Waiting for more support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Berks and Lehigh fringe screw job. What's new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 34f here now....we may have dodged a bullet for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I won't feel confident in getting 6" or more until 12Z tomorrow. I know the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms" last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or even 195. And the "blizzard" this year. Point being that there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out. I'll feel much better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing 6" or more. On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5" of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really love to have one shellacking this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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