famartin Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Back end GFS and GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Usually eurowx maps are an accurate depiction of snow from qpf. This is 3 runs in row with 12z slightly lower by 1-2" ECM might be locked on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Usually eurowx maps are an accurate depiction of snow from qpf. This is 3 runs in row with 12z slightly lower by 1-2" ECM might be locked on QPF maybe, but the snowfall is not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Usually eurowx maps are an accurate depiction of snow from qpf. This is 3 runs in row with 12z slightly lower by 1-2" ECM might be locked onYeah eurowx is pretty good. But depends who you ask, some people here will disagree with you regardless Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah eurowx is pretty good. But depends who you ask, some people here will disagree with you regardless Sent from my iPhone That's just not nice. I'm pointing out valid flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah eurowx is pretty good. But depends who you ask, some people here will disagree with you regardless Sent from my iPhone No need for that comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 8:00 AM Mar 3, 2015 _______________________________________________________________________________ Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill ranging from 21 to 29. Wind southeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Tonight: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet and freezing rain likely in the evening, then a chance of a mix of freezing rain and rain after midnight. Low 27, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 27. Wind south around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. No ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.2 inches. Wednesday: Dense overcast. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. High 41. Wind west around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation mostly around a quarter of an inch. Wednesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A chance of a mix of rain and snow in the evening, then a mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely after midnight. Low 31. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 36. Wind northwest around 5 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. Snow likely. High 33, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind chill around 24. Wind north-northwest around 6 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My current thinking for northern Chester, Montgomery and Bucks counties...0.5 to 1.5 inches of combined snow and sleet from mid-afternoon into early evening...changing to zr between 6 and 7 PM...then all rain by 10 PM as temps rise...the change back to sleet and snow will happen between midnight Wednesday and 2 AM on Thursday with an additional 4 to 6 inches of snow, ending by noon on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ray, Here is the map and text output from the 0Z eurowx. If you haven't already seen it would you look it over and comment? I notice that the snowfall accumulation map shows more snow than the text. I guess they erase the snow today with the rain tomorrow. Not sure. I have e-mailed them a couple of times to get clarification on some issues. I really feel they try their best to put out accurate maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ray: if you're not going to agree with the snowiest solution, no matter how silly it may be, please don't post at all...thanks in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Does anyone else feel we are going to lose a lot of snow accum to sleet (Wed nite/Thurs AM)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Does anyone else feel we are going to lose a lot of snow accum to sleet? I don't know but I gather that the precip is lighter during the warmer times between the two snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't know but I gather that the precip is lighter during the warmer times between the two snow events. Yes, Wednesday should be a 'mild' day. Well, mild meaning seasonal. Probably low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM How much of that is actual snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 congtrat Philly area. Area looks to be possible ground zero for snow for rd 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 congtrat Philly area. Area looks to be possible ground zero for snow for rd 2. Yeah, you told us the same thing 24 hours prior to the late January "bizzard" debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 FYI - Snow maps from the NAM this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 TTN area sees the highest on the NAM (7-10), 4-7 surrounding that for most. It's catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Flash freeze threat tomorrow night with a lot of water on the road from heavy rain and snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You see the NAM is coming in line with the rest of the guidance. Certainly shaping for an impressive snow event on Thursday. Let's see how the rest of the 12z model guidance goes today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Flash freeze threat tomorrow night with a lot of water on the road from heavy rain and snow melt. Hi Mitchell, I guess you guys at Mount Holly will have your hands full this week. I bet we'll see new winter storm watches going up probably tomorrow. Definitely alerting my co-workers about today's winter weather and yep, the one for Thursday. This will be a wild few days. Thursday should be a wild day to see that heavy snow pile up. Gonna be battling that stronger sun now. Its good that we're seeing the models coming together for this event, but we still have to wait and see how this turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hi Mitchell, I guess you guys at Mount Holly will have your hands full this week. I bet we'll see new winter storm watches going up probably tomorrow. Definitely alerting my co-workers about today's winter weather and yep, the one for Thursday. This will be a wild few days. Thursday should be a wild day to see that heavy snow pile up. Gonna be battling that stronger sun now. Its good that we're seeing the models coming together for this event, but we still have to wait and see how this turns out. Yup, it hasn't snowed yet so anything could happen. Though we're getting late in the game for major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We've seen some crazy changes in under 36 hours this season. The missed January blizzard is only one example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM: PHL sounding shows several inches of sleet before a change to snow, snow totals on the lower end of what I gave earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We've seen some crazy changes in under 36 hours this season. The missed January blizzard is only one example. The model flips and flops were wild at this point with that storm. GGEM and UKMET never had it so it never a high certainty we were getting the blizzard. Much better odds this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ray, Here is the map and text output from the 0Z eurowx. If you haven't already seen it would you look it over and comment? I notice that the snowfall accumulation map shows more snow than the text. I guess they erase the snow today with the rain tomorrow. Not sure. I have e-mailed them a couple of times to get clarification on some issues. I really feel they try their best to put out accurate maps. euro3-3-00.png euro3-3-00.png Yes the text output is much more inline with what I saw. Why the map has so much more, I don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Fwiw the gfs is much quicker to warm things above freezing tonight. Happens between 7-10pm vs after midnight on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS wrecks Philly, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is amazing for Philly metro and SJ. Easily the biggest this year and possibly since 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.