Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 things are looking solid for the area, general 6"+ depending on setup. euro up next I agree, I feel pretty good about at least 4-6"+ for some of the region, if not everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS is about 0.6" as snow at TTN. Haven't looked elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12Z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS ensemble mean is also a crush job, an inch or two on the front then about 6-8" on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 I trust meteocentre's maps far more than wxbell for snow. They actually split out freezing rain and sleet separately. Here's their snow plots for the GFS and GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Sure enough euro comes in weaker and SE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This includes about 2" on front end which would probably be washed away Wednesday before more snow on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 This includes about 2" on front end which would probably be washed away Wednesday before more snow on Thursday. euro3-2-12.png Its not doing well if it thinks there will be 2" on the front end, because it torches at 800 and most of the front end will be sleet, not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Back end, Euro has about a half inch of liquid falling as snow at TTN. Close to 0.60" at PHL. Overall, pretty good agreement for a 4-8 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Back end, Euro has about a half inch of liquid falling as snow at TTN. Close to 0.60" at PHL. Overall, pretty good agreement for a 4-8 inch snowfall. Yeah but 6-12" sounds so much nicer! Agreed though, 4-8 is a great call for now, but it definitely has the potential to put down more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah but 6-12" sounds so much nicer! Agreed though, 4-8 is a great call for now, but it definitely has the potential to put down more than that. Or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Back end, Euro has about a half inch of liquid falling as snow at TTN. Close to 0.60" at PHL. Overall, pretty good agreement for a 4-8 inch snowfall. It would be appropriate that this type of storm would give us our biggest snowfall tis year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Back end, Euro has about a half inch of liquid falling as snow at TTN. Close to 0.60" at PHL. Overall, pretty good agreement for a 4-8 inch snowfall. As far as TTN goes it seems like most models depict about .5-.65 of LE falling as snow. I'll take that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro wasnt that much different from its overnight run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Got a flight into PHL Tuesday that is supposed to arrive at 6:15pm. Thoughts? Praying no delays. I can take being stuck in Key West, but not Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Got a flight into PHL Tuesday that is supposed to arrive at 6:15pm. Thoughts? Praying no delays. I can take being stuck in Key West, but not Charlotte. Looks like it will be sleeting at that time. Good luck, but at this point I would bank on a delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like it will be sleeting at that time. Good luck, but at this point I would bank on a delay.Ugh. Wish I was flying direct from Key West Flight leaves CLT at 4:30. Conditions at that point, Ray? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM says hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ugh. Wish I was flying direct from Key West Flight leaves CLT at 4:30. Conditions at that point, Ray? TIA Should be just starting then. Sometimes they will start scheduling delays based on expected conditions, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM says hold on. Its a sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Its not doing well if it thinks there will be 2" on the front end, because it torches at 800 and most of the front end will be sleet, not snow. You're right Ray. I rechecked the output and on the front end I would get around 1-2" and in the Philly area it would be less than an inch on the front end. Philly does better on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Its a sleet fest.Yup I should have noted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 People still look at the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 People still look at the 18z NAM? Yeah I wouldn't sweat it too much, it's about 200 miles north of the GFS/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah I wouldn't sweat it too much, it's about 200 miles north of the GFS/Euro I'm not a huge fan of the NAM anyway, but in particular I'm not crazy about it outside of 36 hours and even less enamored with the 18z run - which always seems to be very amped for storm threats between 36 and 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I actually think the NAM is right where we want it right now. If you take a blend with the global models, it puts the axis of heaviest precip along I-95. At this point I am more worried about suppression than I am about it ending up to far NW. It was good too see a qpf bomb as it gives us a hint that the globals especially the EURO might be underdoing the precip at this point. I'm hoping for a major storm not a significant storm so I'll roll the dice on this one and hope for more qpf to work with even if it means a risk of tainting. There's gonna be some great dynamics on this system and its certainly the type of storm that can overperform on the qpf side, however pinpointing where the heaviest axis of precip is and runs into cold air is the tricky part. There should be an axis somewhere within our region of 8"+ IMO, but I'm not sure where that sets up. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM's warm layer isn't THAT much above freezing, honestly. At least not up by ABE. That's really a borderline sleet profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I actually think the NAM is right where we want it right now. If you take a blend with the global models, it puts the axis of heaviest precip along I-95. At this point I am more worried about suppression than I am about it ending up to far NW. It was good too see a qpf bomb as it gives us a hint that the globals especially the EURO might be underdoing the precip at this point. I'm hoping for a major storm not a significant storm so I'll roll the dice on this one and hope for more qpf to work with even if it means a risk of tainting. There's gonna be some great dynamics on this system and its certainly the type of storm that can overperform on the qpf side, however pinpointing where the heaviest axis of precip is and runs into cold air is the tricky part. There should be an axis somewhere within our region of 8"+ IMO, but I'm not sure where that sets up. We shall see... Nice post. You and I think the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM's warm layer isn't THAT much above freezing, honestly. At least not up by ABE. That's really a borderline sleet profile. Yes, further south along I-95 its sleetier, but up there not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS holds serve, crushes everybody. Really far away from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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