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Possible snow->rain->snow? event, Tuesday-Thursday 3/3-5/2015


famartin

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Back end, Euro has about a half inch of liquid falling as snow at TTN.  Close to 0.60" at PHL.  Overall, pretty good agreement for a 4-8 inch snowfall.

 

As far as TTN goes it seems like most models depict about .5-.65 of LE falling as snow.  I'll take that...  

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Got a flight into PHL Tuesday that is supposed to arrive at 6:15pm. Thoughts? Praying no delays. I can take being stuck in Key West, but not Charlotte.

Looks like it will be sleeting at that time.  Good luck, but at this point I would bank on a delay.

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Its not doing well if it thinks there will be 2" on the front end, because it torches at 800 and most of the front end will be sleet, not snow.

You're right Ray. I rechecked the output and on the front end I would get around 1-2" and in the Philly area it would be less than an inch on the front end. Philly does better on Thursday.

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Yeah I wouldn't sweat it too much, it's about 200 miles north of the GFS/Euro

I'm not a huge fan of the NAM anyway, but in particular I'm not crazy about it outside of 36 hours and even less enamored with the 18z run - which always seems to be very amped for storm threats between 36 and 84 hours.

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I actually think the NAM is right where we want it right now. If you take a blend with the global models, it puts the axis of heaviest precip along I-95. At this point I am more worried about suppression than I am about it ending up to far NW. It was good too see a qpf bomb as it gives us a hint that the globals especially the EURO might be underdoing the precip at this point. I'm hoping for a major storm not a significant storm so I'll roll the dice on this one and hope for more qpf to work with even if it means a risk of tainting. There's gonna be some great dynamics on this system and its certainly the type of storm that can overperform on the qpf side, however pinpointing where the heaviest axis of precip is and runs into cold air is the tricky part. There should be an axis somewhere within our region of 8"+ IMO, but I'm not sure where that sets up. We shall see...

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I actually think the NAM is right where we want it right now. If you take a blend with the global models, it puts the axis of heaviest precip along I-95. At this point I am more worried about suppression than I am about it ending up to far NW. It was good too see a qpf bomb as it gives us a hint that the globals especially the EURO might be underdoing the precip at this point. I'm hoping for a major storm not a significant storm so I'll roll the dice on this one and hope for more qpf to work with even if it means a risk of tainting. There's gonna be some great dynamics on this system and its certainly the type of storm that can overperform on the qpf side, however pinpointing where the heaviest axis of precip is and runs into cold air is the tricky part. There should be an axis somewhere within our region of 8"+ IMO, but I'm not sure where that sets up. We shall see...

Nice post. You and I think the same.

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