famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 18Z NAM is a bit later with changeover, but a bit snowier overall. About 0.54" snow at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Latest Mt. Holly map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Glenn at 4pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Glenn at 4pm: Me thinks Glen may be hair too far south. Glen if you read this it's just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Me thinks Glen may be hair too far south. Glen if you read this it's just my opinion. Overall I think it's a bietch of a forecast for a MET. (changeover) Really could bust either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 One thing for sure is a late night :0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Glen too far south. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OK, internet access is back so here's what I can see on the EC for other locales. These are based on my interpretation of the QPF and thermal profiles based on 6-hour time intervals...so there's a little guesswork. MPO ~0.33" as snow ABE ~0.47" as snow RDG ~0.52" as snow TTN ~0.62" as snow PHL ~0.74" as snow ILG ~0.76" as snow ACY ~0.65" as snow GED ~0.50" as snow Ray - is there any way when you do summaries like that that you might include a couple more locations in NJ, like maybe Newark, Morristown and Belmar, so we can get a bit more of NJ bracketed (EWR also covers NYC, really)? Lots of NYC forum posters come to this forum for the less cluttered, higher quality posts, like yours. Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Why is Glenn too far South? Give some reasoning guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 One thing for sure is a late night :0 Yup I'll be up all night watching what you get, I'll try to get a few hours of sleep every so often, probably this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like the RGEM is holding serve. Maybe a little better, at least thru 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ray - is there any way when you do summaries like that that you might include a couple more locations in NJ, like maybe Newark, Morristown and Belmar, so we can get a bit more of NJ bracketed (EWR also covers NYC, really)? Lots of NYC forum posters come to this forum for the less cluttered, higher quality posts, like yours. Thanks... Flattery will get you everywhere, lol (but also true). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ray - is there any way when you do summaries like that that you might include a couple more locations in NJ, like maybe Newark, Morristown and Belmar, so we can get a bit more of NJ bracketed (EWR also covers NYC, really)? Lots of NYC forum posters come to this forum for the less cluttered, higher quality posts, like yours. Thanks... Surely. Same caveat applies: These are based on my interpretation of the QPF and thermal profiles based on 6-hour time intervals...so there's a little guesswork. MMU ~0.50" as snow EWR ~0.51" as snow BLM ~0.67" as snow Flattery will get you everywhere, lol (but also true). It will, at least if you want someone to do you a favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yup I'll be up all night watching what you get, I'll try to get a few hours of sleep every so often, probably this evening. Dinner > recliner power snooze > fun should start around 10-12pm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I've got one for you too Ray, regarding sleet. If I was more knowledgeable I'd look at soundings or skew-t's, but here goes: What would be the expected relationship be between surface temps and frozen precipitation during the changeover period? At what surface temps could we look for sleet, assuming it will cool off aloft before at the surface? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 rgem 18z vz 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Surely. Same caveat applies: These are based on my interpretation of the QPF and thermal profiles based on 6-hour time intervals...so there's a little guesswork. MMU ~0.50" as snow EWR ~0.51" as snow BLM ~0.67" as snow It will, at least if you want someone to do you a favor I agree, a little good will goes a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Why is Glenn too far South? Give some reasoning guys. Euro which has been the most consistent is further north. And Nam was trending north at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 rgem 18z vz 12z rgem3-4-18.pngrgem3-4-12.png Interesting that the outline of the snow area stayed almost exactly the same in many areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Finally after 17 winter events we get last hour trends in our favor. It's about frigging time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting that the outline of the snow area stayed almost exactly the same in many areas! Getting too close to the event to change much on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS looks a lot better, 5-8" for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 I've got one for you too Ray, regarding sleet. If I was more knowledgeable I'd look at soundings or skew-t's, but here goes: What would be the expected relationship be between surface temps and frozen precipitation during the changeover period? At what surface temps could we look for sleet, assuming it will cool off aloft before at the surface? Thanks! Well, if it cools aloft all the way through the column, then you will go from rain to snow. Sleet would mean that a layer of warm air remains aloft, as was expected with this system. However, the most recent guidance has mostly done away with a significant cold layer beneath warmth during the changeover, opting more for an isothermal look as the entire column cools. A small warm layer near 800 mb during changeover may be enough to get some sleet into the mix, but it probably won't last too long. Surface temps only influence whether it makes it to the ground as sleet versus rain... if its saturated and in the 40s, it won't. Usually during changeovers from rain to snow, you can get some sleet when temps fall to the upper 30s. Once the column cools enough it goes to snow, and that is not directly related to the surface temp. Confused yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS looks a lot better, 5-8" for everyone Further north also. I think initial accumulations will depend on how fast the snow comes down to overcome melting on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Getting too close to the event to change much on the models. I know but there's usually minor variations on the fringes, these look almost identical except for the colors in the middle :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, if it cools aloft all the way through the column, then you will go from rain to snow. Sleet would mean that a layer of warm air remains aloft, as was expected with this system. However, the most recent guidance has mostly done away with a significant cold layer beneath warmth during the changeover, opting more for an isothermal look as the entire column cools. A small warm layer near 800 mb during changeover may be enough to get some sleet into the mix, but it probably won't last too long. Surface temps only influence whether it makes it to the ground as sleet versus rain... if its saturated and in the 40s, it won't. Usually during changeovers from rain to snow, you can get some sleet when temps fall to the upper 30s. Once the column cools enough it goes to snow, and that is not directly related to the surface temp. Confused yet? Yes, thanks, lol. I was thinking that since it looks like it will cool off at 850 mb before the surface, that we'd get sleet. But you're right, last winter on Feb. 3rd we got 5" of snow here with the surface temp. going from 36F to 33F and no lower (not saying that's the case here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Follow There is some pretty legitimate mid level frontogenesis tonight in "NW areas" that seemingly "miss the heaviest" ... hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Is there a reason why the maximum snow expected is so low compared to the likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Is there a reason why the maximum snow expected is so low compared to the likely? Well one thing I see is that the maximum is from Thursday at 8 pm till Friday at 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This might be what you'd like to see :-): eta: It's Maximum possible, not the expected. Still, looks real nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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