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Possible snow->rain->snow? event, Tuesday-Thursday 3/3-5/2015


famartin

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I feel terrible for meteorologists this winter.  They've been toyed with over and over by models that are almost nonsensical.  It has been the winter of the "12 hour forecast" where anything outside of that range can't be trusted.  I've lost confidence in them, as well, having seen countless amounts of digital snow vaporize in the last 12-24 hours leading into a storm.

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i thought that even with this wacky winter.....the euro has the best verification scores.........is that not correct?

It does, but only by a small margin. Meaning that when its all by itself it should still be viewed as suspect.
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It does, but only by a small margin. Meaning that when its all by itself it should still be viewed as suspect.

 

 

gotcha.......i guess i misread the post......he was just saying that the euro is the new nam for this particular storm and not in general which would make sense with what you just said......thank you

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As of 11:33 am, the NWS has posted a weenie suicide warning for AmericanWx posters from NYC, LI, North Jersey, and the Hudson Valley, while posters in Central Jersey/SE PA/South Jersey are now under a weenie suicide watch.  :>)

 

As I said yesterday I wasn't going to be confident until the 12Z runs today and after seeing the consensus we had at 0Z last night go south (literally, lol), it might be time for the NWS to back off at least a bit on snowfall forecasts and possibly even trim some of the warnings back to advisories (need high confidence in 6" or more for a warning vs. 3" or more for an advisory for Central/North Jersey/NYC/LI).  Looking like more of a 3-6" event for most (even towards Philly perhaps, if this "two wave" scenario plays out), which is still a significant storm, but not a major one.  If anyone is curious, below is what I wrote yesterday afternoon.  

 

I won't feel confident in getting 6" or more until 12Z tomorrow.  I know the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms" last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or even 195.  And the "blizzard" this year.  Point being that there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out.  I'll feel much better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing 6" or more.  On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5" of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really love to have one shellacking this winter...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45894-possible-snow-rain-snow-event-tuesday-thursday-33-52015/page-6#entry3473242

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gotcha.......i guess i misread the post......he was just saying that the euro is the new nam for this particular storm and not in general which would make sense with what you just said......thank you

In the sense that the NAM has always had a propensity to predict prodigious snow amounts that never verify. See ECM since late January.

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Come on Ralphie come out and play :lmao:

He jumped the gun based on the combo of 6z GFS and 12z NAM (the two driest scenarios for the northern suburbs in the past few days - not counting silly things like the CRAS).  I'm conservatively at 3" to 5" for northern Chester, Montgomery and Bucks counties right now.

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