baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You need to load each image exactly in place and compare. Its there. Like I said I'll take your word for it you are the met and I would trust your eyes over mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is not quite 4" on a 10:1 ratio at TTN. A bit better than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is not quite 4" on a 10:1 ratio at TTN. A bit better than last run. I think the trend is more dry on the models than south at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS was a good run for most here. Sticking with my 3-6 for TTN though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Plus they are starting to show (2) distinct waves now as we cash in on the first wave while the second focuses more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 First wave is taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 First wave is taint When does it switch over? 9z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 9z-12z at cursory glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM is 4-6" for all of us, stop jumping into icey waters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It isnt going to be "the big one" and euro is the new NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Only model that has been steady as a rock has been the Euro. Kinda wish you hadn't said that, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Meanwhile quakertowneeds snow gets to sleep like a baby tonight knowing he didn't miss the big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It isnt going to be "the big one" and euro is the new NAM i thought that even with this wacky winter.....the euro has the best verification scores.........is that not correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 May be the models are having a hard time with the two waves being so close together. If the first wave isn't that potent, it shouldn't draw the moisture plume much south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I feel terrible for meteorologists this winter. They've been toyed with over and over by models that are almost nonsensical. It has been the winter of the "12 hour forecast" where anything outside of that range can't be trusted. I've lost confidence in them, as well, having seen countless amounts of digital snow vaporize in the last 12-24 hours leading into a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 i thought that even with this wacky winter.....the euro has the best verification scores.........is that not correct?It does, but only by a small margin. Meaning that when its all by itself it should still be viewed as suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It does, but only by a small margin. Meaning that when its all by itself it should still be viewed as suspect. gotcha.......i guess i misread the post......he was just saying that the euro is the new nam for this particular storm and not in general which would make sense with what you just said......thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 As of 11:33 am, the NWS has posted a weenie suicide warning for AmericanWx posters from NYC, LI, North Jersey, and the Hudson Valley, while posters in Central Jersey/SE PA/South Jersey are now under a weenie suicide watch. :>) As I said yesterday I wasn't going to be confident until the 12Z runs today and after seeing the consensus we had at 0Z last night go south (literally, lol), it might be time for the NWS to back off at least a bit on snowfall forecasts and possibly even trim some of the warnings back to advisories (need high confidence in 6" or more for a warning vs. 3" or more for an advisory for Central/North Jersey/NYC/LI). Looking like more of a 3-6" event for most (even towards Philly perhaps, if this "two wave" scenario plays out), which is still a significant storm, but not a major one. If anyone is curious, below is what I wrote yesterday afternoon. I won't feel confident in getting 6" or more until 12Z tomorrow. I know the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms" last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or even 195. And the "blizzard" this year. Point being that there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out. I'll feel much better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing 6" or more. On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5" of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really love to have one shellacking this winter... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45894-possible-snow-rain-snow-event-tuesday-thursday-33-52015/page-6#entry3473242 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 gotcha.......i guess i misread the post......he was just saying that the euro is the new nam for this particular storm and not in general which would make sense with what you just said......thank you In the sense that the NAM has always had a propensity to predict prodigious snow amounts that never verify. See ECM since late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's the Global GEM Here's the RGEM Snowfall Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 CMC and Ukie are both markedly better than the GFS /NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GEFS are north of OP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ukie meteograms give PHL at least 7" plus whatever falls during the transition period between 6z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like a general 4-7" storm with some loli's of 8". For some the biggest of the winter is still in play Kamu's squirrel grounds have good expectations for an 8" lolipop \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z UKMET is in 0z euro country. Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKMET is probably a foot for Philly depending on taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is a 2-4" storm for phl....1-3" nw burbs. Game, set, match. Come on Ralphie come out and play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So this is why I was harping on all of the bridge jumping from the 12Z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Come on Ralphie come out and play He jumped the gun based on the combo of 6z GFS and 12z NAM (the two driest scenarios for the northern suburbs in the past few days - not counting silly things like the CRAS). I'm conservatively at 3" to 5" for northern Chester, Montgomery and Bucks counties right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Come on Ralphie come out and play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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