ezweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Folks, hang in there. We have to watch how the models trend today. Its easy to bail right now. So, let's see how the models trend today and even tonight. You know you'll be watching for the new runs later today and tonight. One thing we do know is there will be a lot of moisture with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I would expect the caa to encou ter more resistance this time of year causing less of a southward push but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM in its wheelhouse It has a wheelhouse? Let's let the entire 12z suite play out. Geez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Okay, here's the 12KM NAM Snowfall Map And here's the 4KM NAM Snowfall Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_035.gif and thru 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I wouldn't mind the 12z NAM results. 5-6" would still be the biggest snow all season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is a 2-4" storm for phl....1-3" nw burbs. Game, set, match. let the entire 12Z suite play out first please...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 never seen so much credence given to the nam before. It's really not a great tool to use for lp placement or qpf in any situation. It's has some use as a tool for temp profiles but more often than not it's surface maps are horrendous. Could it be on to something here? maybe, but unless the RGEM & Euro takes a noticeable shift south I wouldn't put too much weight into it. Not to mention it was as of yesterday the furthest north model and now it's the furthest south? Hmm I wouldn't get too emotional over it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Even the awful NAM is 3-6" for SE PA, 5-8" S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 never seen so much credence given to the nam before. It's really not a great tool to use for lp placement or qpf in any situation. It's has some use as a tool for temp profiles but more often than not it's surface maps are horrendous. Could it be on to something here? maybe, but unless the RGEM & Euro takes a noticeable shift south I wouldn't put too much weight into it. Not to mention it was as of yesterday the furthest north model and now it's the furthest south? Hmm I wouldn't get too emotional over it just yet. Well, first you have to stop and realize its not just the NAM. GFS started sinking south late yesterday. Now NAM is following. Not sure about this. Just preparing for a possible revision downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sorry for the reaction to the NAM guys....I just saw it coming. Is it right? Maybe, maybe not. Will wait until 1:30 before stating the southern shift is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, first you have to stop and realize its not just the NAM. GFS started sinking south late yesterday. Now NAM is following. Not sure about this. Just preparing for a possible revision downward. Yes the GFS has sunk south but compared to the move the NAM has made from 12z yesterday to today it's negligible. Not to mention the Euro is markedly north of both. I am jsut speaking in general to people freaking out over the NAM at this point. Should you take notice? yes, but just leave it at that until there is more concrete evidence of a NAM like south move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yes the GFS has sunk south but compared to the move the NAM has made from 12z yesterday to today it's negligible. Not to mention the Euro is markedly north of both. I am jsut speaking in general to people freaking out over the NAM at this point. Should you take notice? yes, but just leave it at that until there is more concrete evidence of a NAM like south move. Euro being north should not, in and of itself, mean much these days. Not after the blizzard that wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, first you have to stop and realize its not just the NAM. GFS started sinking south late yesterday. Now NAM is following. Not sure about this. Just preparing for a possible revision downward. Your low end number might barely hit. But the top end is pretty much out of the question. A downward revision is prolly smart. In fact I'd chop a thrid off all the numbers from the latest mt holly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro being north should not, in and of itself, mean much these days. Not after the blizzard that wasn't. Yes it hasn't been great this year, but no model has and if I am not mistaken it's still has the highest skill score. My basic point is everything is markedly north of the NAM at this point and again it has been the most erratic model from yesterday to today so take it with a grain of salt at this juncture that's all. Could it be right, sure it could, but would you change your forecast b/c of it at 10 AM today? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro being north should not, in and of itself, mean much these days. Not after the blizzard that wasn't. Some of the blame on that fiasco lies with the forecasters imo. That had a one run blip of a blizzard (in PHL) against all other guidance and then it steadily backed away from that. Not to mention from what I read that was due to a bias it has in regards to convection and lp placement, which isn't present with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yes it hasn't been great this year, but no model has and if I am not mistaken it's still has the highest skill score. My basic point is everything is markedly north of the NAM at this point and again it has been the most erratic model from yesterday to today so take it with a grain of salt at this juncture that's all. Could it be right, sure it could, but would you change your forecast b/c of it at 10 AM today? I doubt it. It hasnt exactly been erratic, its been more or less steadily trending south. Erratic would be back and forth. Like I said, not sure about this, but two models trending south is not good. Will wait to see rest of guidance but preparing for a downgraded forecast is not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Some of the blame on that fiasco lies with the forecasters imo. That had a one run blip of a blizzard (in PHL) against all other guidance and then it steadily backed away from that. Not to mention from what I read that was due to a bias it has in regards to convection and lp placement, which isn't present with this setup. The blame lies in forecasters going solely with the Euro over all else. The Euro had mutiple runs of a foot plus at PHL. That's not a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It hasnt exactly been erratic, its been more or less steadily trending south. Erratic would be back and forth. Like I said, not sure about this, but two models trending south is not good. Will wait to see rest of guidance but preparing for a downgraded forecast is not unreasonable. Preparing no, again I was referencing the bridge jumping. So if northern most model at 12z yesterday becomes the southern most at 12z today would you consider that erratic? Obviously we need to see the entire 12z suite to see where it lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Preparing no, again I was referencing the bridge jumping. So if northern most model at 12z yesterday becomes the southern most at 12z today would you consider that erratic? Remember, its been steadily trending south. That's not erratic. And its not the most southerly (6Z GFS was further south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Remember, its been steadily trending south. That's not erratic. And its not the most southerly (6Z GFS was further south). ok. it was the northern most and warmest at this juncture yesterday that's all I know. It had DC barely seeing any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A real gem in broadcast meteorology - Joe Cioffi - Just started to follow him on Twitter. I remember DT referring to him in his posts. Added him to my Twitter feed. Anyway, here's his thoughts on the NAM situation.. Boy, what he says is really true. Forecasting can be downright frustrating.. Here's what Joe said a few minutes ago - "WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND STATEN ISLAND AND NEW JERSEY FROM RTE 78 SOUTH..WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC SE NY and COASTAL CT. What is happening on the NAM is that 2 distinct areas of precipitation are coming out. The first show comes overnight into Wednesday morning which brings anywhere from .25 to .50 inches of liquid precip to NYC and higher amounts to the south. Some of that gets lost until the cold air gets in. The second area is during the day tomorrow and the NAM has that area only barely glancing NYC and Long Island with heavier amounts central and South Jersey and beyond. What this would mean is that you can take my map from yesterday and shift everything south by about 20 or 30 miles so the 9 inch line becomes the 6 inch line..the 6 inch becomes the 3 inch. It should be noted that there are other NAM models that remain much further north. But this is unfortunately what forecasting has become because it seems that no matter what is going on you can turn around and find a model that conflicts. This is why sometimes this profession can be extremely frustrating. I'm still going to wait and see what happens with the other models as they come in this morning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Red Sky either jumped or hasn't seen the NAM yet. Need 1.1" for 40", that's happening. March snow sucks, a big storm would have been many magnitudes better in early Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM trend is has been south and drier. Not crazy trends but still should get people's attention. Here's the last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 All that's left is padding numbers, in March i prefer spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Only model that has been steady as a rock has been the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM doesn't look south to me in those 3 frames Ray. Trending drier yes. Notice the northwestern corner of Connecticut and NJ that is nearly identical on all 3 frames in regards to northern precip shield. Semantics but I don't think that portrays a southern trend imo, but I am a hobbyist so I'll take your word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS ticked back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM doesn't look south to me in those 3 frames Ray. Trending drier yes. Notice the northwestern corner of Connecticut and NJ that is nearly identical on all 3 frames in regards to northern precip shield. Semantics but I don't think that portrays a southern trend imo, but I am a hobbyist so I'll take your word for it. You need to load each image exactly in place and compare. Its there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS ticked back north.It had nowhere else to go really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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