WVclimo Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 21/0 with clear skies a steady, very high barometer and calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 At least it doesn't look like we'll be doing another 33F rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 At least it doesn't look like we'll be doing another 33F rain You don't know that for sure yet. South wind could burst the cold bubble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 NAM looks like it will be stingy on snow this run, but I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 NAM looks like it will be stingy on snow this run, but I could be wrong It is... precip starts as ice/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Sim radar shows an area wide light to moderate somethings by and before 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Sim radar shows an area wide light to moderate somethings by and before 18Z Soundings say ice/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It is... precip starts as ice/sleet I could see it going that way this is one of those systems that snow delayed will be snow denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It looks like light/moderate snow at 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It is... precip starts as ice/sleet No, Yoda. The thickness charts show virtually the entire column as below freezing for same time beyond 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hr 21 pretty icy... DCA is -2.1C at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It looks like light/moderate snow at 10 am. don't see that at all not sure if anything falls by 10AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 No, Yoda. The thickness charts show virtually the entire column as below freezing for same time beyond 15Z. I can see the soundings already Its like an hour of snow to ice... at hr 15, 875mb is already above zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 35 dbz zr at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hr 21 pretty icy... DCA is -2.1C at surface Geez that's cold...well N and W will be locked in for ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Man that's a mighty high High of the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I can see the soundings already I'm going by the 1000-500 mb thickness chart. The 5400 line moves north of DC around 10 am and Baltimore around 11:30 to noon. Anything that falls before then should be snow. It could be mixed snow and sleet for an hour at the turnover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Geez that's cold...well N and W will be locked in for ice Hr 24 is -1C at 1000mb... but +6.4C at 900mb at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'm going by the 1000-500 mb thickness chart. The 5400 line moves north of DC around 10 am and Baltimore around 11:30 to noon. Anything that falls before then should be snow. It could be mixed snow and sleet for an hour at the turnover. problem is, very little precip in our area before 1PM, and nothing before 10AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 problem is, very little precip in our area before 1PM, and nothing before 10AM Sim radar suggests that you start snow at 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 24 hr precip DCA ~0.4. 0.5" contour touches DC and goes into AA county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 problem is, very little precip in our area before 1PM, and nothing before 10AM Huh? definitely plenty of precip at 10 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'm going by the 1000-500 mb thickness chart. The 5400 line moves north of DC around 10 am and Baltimore around 11:30 to noon. Anything that falls before then should be snow. It could be mixed snow and sleet for an hour at the turnover. The 540 line is a very basic method of predicting snow. It's pretty old school and only one method. It's good to look at thicknesses from the top down...1000-500, 850-700, 1000-850. Also look at forecast soundings and see where the temp line relates to 0c and how spread the dew point depressions and wet bulb is. Then factor in the ground temps and precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The 540 line is a very basic method of predicting snow. It's pretty old school and only one method. It's good to look at thicknesses from the top down...1000-500, 850-700, 1000-850. Also look at forecast soundings and see where the temp line relates to 0c and how spread the dew point depressions and wet bulb is. Then factor in the ground temps and precip rates. As soon as you open a gift account, we can pony up for these pointers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Thicknesses take a back seat to soundings. And never use composite reflectivity. NAM is dry early and icy late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 19.6* at 9:15, so that's about a 2.7* loss in 1 hr 45 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 problem is, very little precip in our area before 1PM, and nothing before 10AM Dry is always the enemy. I don't usually make fun of the NAM, but look at the 12 hr precip panels at 21z tomorrow from the latest run and the 12z from this morning. Looks like two different storms. Also noticed the RAP came in with a different look over the past couple of hours. Makes me wonder about data and about accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 As soon as you open a gift account, we can pony up for these pointers. There are general rule of thumbs to look for with thicknesses. Google each of the ones I gave you to get the general numbers for freezing/snow etc. soundings are much better to look at but thicknesses are another tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Thicknesses take a back seat to soundings. And never use composite reflectivity. NAM is dry early and icy late. Thanks for your pointers as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Huh? definitely plenty of precip at 10 am nothing has fallen according to the computer that's virga huh? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=015&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150301+00+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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