BTRWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12 hour NAM soundings from oldest, least saturated to most recent, saturated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looking at the NAM 2-m temperatures, it starts us in the early morning around 20 and take us up to around 31-32 by the late afternoon. But it's raising the temperatures even during a period of steady precip. The winds are progged as southerly, which would imply a warmup, but they're fairly light. We saw last Saturday that thick cloud cover and steady precip can really delay afternoon warming, even in a sfc warm advection pattern. The precip in this event probably won't be as heavy as last week's, so perhaps we do quickly get up to 31 or so and avoid major problems, but I wouldn't be stunned if much of the area (outside of the DC Beltway, especially on the north side of town), gets stuck in the mid to upper 20's and gets a more significant impact than some are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I mean come on this was yesterday meteorologists up and down the east coast getting a much deserved break... fairly quiet pattern next 2 weeks .... Not bullsih Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro is extremely dry for both events. very dissapointing runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Is this storm setup similar to that WTF storm we had recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Does anyone feel like the Euro is the end-all, be-all this winter though? I'm usually all about the Euro being THE model, but it hasn't done well at all this winter. No model has done well, so I just wait until you get to within 48 hours to nail anything down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro has made some late game trends that were somewhat significant, and not all of those actually turned out correct. It has also been the trend setter or had credit stolen for a trend just because it comes out 2 hours later. IMHO, its had a bit of an off year so I'll stay tuned for the 18 and 0z suite. With Mitch on this one thinking 1-2 around DC and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro is extremely dry for both events. very dissapointing runs Time to stop worshiping at that altar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 WWAs go up at 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Anything frozen will contribute to the ongoing glaciation of the snowpack. Already reminds me of Feb/Mar 2007 a bit.. Finally a voice of reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nieciez Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Issued by The National Weather ServiceBaltimore/Washington, MDSat, Feb 28, 2:53 pm EST ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... SLEET... AND FREEZING RAIN... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS... PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. * HAZARD TYPES... SNOW... SLEET... AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS... A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING... SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. PRECIPITATION WILL END AS FREEZING RAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS... ROADS WILL BE SNOW AND ICE COVERED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TRAVELLING WILL BE DANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED BELOW ONE-MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW SUNDAY MORNING. * WINDS... SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE RIDGES ABOVE 2000 FEET. * TEMPERATURES... RISING THROUGH THE 20S SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET... OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-EASTERN LOUDOUN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...LEESBURG...ASHBURN253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZINGRAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY.* LOCATIONS...WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSSWASHINGTON DC AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THENORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC. ICE ACCUMULATIONAROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL END AS FREEZING RAINSUNDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW AND ICE COVERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAYNIGHT. TRAVELLING WILL BE DANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME. VISIBILITYWILL BE REDUCED BELOW ONE-MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW SUNDAY MORNINGAND AFTERNOON.* WINDS...SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...RISING THROUGH THE 20S MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILLRISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAYNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-EASTERN MINERAL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...PURCELLVILLE...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZINGRAIN... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND AS WELL AS THEEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERNVIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. LOCALLY HIGHERAMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER 3 INCHES NEAR THE MASON-DIXONLINE. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL END AS FREEZING RAINSUNDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW AND ICE COVERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAYNIGHT. TRAVELLING WILL BE DANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME. VISIBILITYWILL BE REDUCED BELOW ONE-MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW SUNDAY MORNINGAND AFTERNOON.* WINDS...SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPHALONG THE RIDGES ABOVE 2000 FEET.* TEMPERATURES...RISING THROUGH THE 20S SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILLRISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS SUNDAYNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Here's the approximate qpf from 12z runs imby: GGEM 8 mmRGEM 8 mmGFS 9 mmUKMET 9 mmNAM 16 mm 4K NAM 18mm Not a lot of support for the NAM's wetter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestPaLion Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 18z Nam looks to drop around .1 by 18z, looks like the change over would have happened a dash before then, based on 850 and 925 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Here's the approximate qpf from 12z runs imby: GGEM 8 mm RGEM 8 mm GFS 9 mm UKMET 9 mm NAM 16 mm 4K NAM 18mm Not a lot of support for the NAM's wetter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 18Z NAM still insists on what looks like a good bit of freezing (sleet/ice) through the day tomorrow. Not quite as wet as 12Z I guess, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The more freezing rain the better. Bone dry here in New Windsor....25 / -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I've tried to blend the thickness charts from the high rez NAM with the QPF charts from the regular NAM. It seems that in the Balto-DC corridor, snow is a fair bet for two to three hours until around or just after 18 Z with a mix and switch to sleet and then mixing with and changing to freezing rain. Nobody should get more than 1" to 3" but its going to be a sloppy icy afternoon. The high rez NAM doesn't warm this area above freezing much at all at the surface, certainly not during daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sold, I'd love 2-5 I would love it as well. But I dont see it with this one. A sloppy inch would be more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm thinking about changing my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I would love it as well. But I dont see it with this one. A sloppy inch would be more believable. You sounding the all clear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Lol....just kidding 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Lol....just kidding 1-3" Trademark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Trademark Check my sig...5 out of 8 events...nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You sounding the all clear? Not yet. I have a hard time putting a lot of faith in the NAM. Although the 18Z run certainly looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 WWA's and FRA's all the way down into SC and GA? Anyway NWS Blackburg onboard for a bit cooler, even giving us a bit of snow to start now. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA316 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY....COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OFTHE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVELDISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW TORESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.VAZ010>014-016>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-010430-/O.NEW.KRNK.WW.Y.0017.150301T0900Z-150302T0000Z/BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...HIX...UNION316 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...GREENBRIER VALLEY...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND NEWRIVER VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ROADS WILL BE SNOWAND ICE COVERED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TRAVELING WILL BEDANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED BELOWONE-MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW SUNDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLEESPECIALLY IN THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA|...ALONG WITHA TRACE TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S...THEN CLIMBING INTOTHE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Did instant weather blow a fuse recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS looks a tad wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Cold air is tough to budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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