Wonderdog Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Caving to the NAM again. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS is namish. Snow until noon or so then zr for a time. And definitely trending wetter over the past few runs. Colder and wetter is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Not liking the ice threat. Give me snow or give me non-freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Caving to the NAM again. lolMy take on the gfs overall after a couple months is much improved on overall pattern and major synoptic setups, but it has a warm bias in the lower levels that really messes it up in waa and cad situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 And definitely trending wetter over the past few runs. Colder and wetter is better. Getting close to pulling the trigger on the 1" over/under. Ice prob isn't much of a threat due to time of day. Might accrete on trees and grass. Maybe a concrete sidewalk. But I doubt asphalt will be affected much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Not liking the ice threat. Give me snow or give me non-freezing rain Patrick Mapgirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This will be advisories by afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Not liking the ice threat. Give me snow or give me non-freezing rain it's not going to do much even up there.. little tree icicles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 it's not going to do much even up there.. little tree icicles! I've got to take the kiddo to a bday party in the morning, so I'm hoping for an afternoon start time and limited ice sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 1-3" early call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro was still really light with precip last night. Tossing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I've got to take the kiddo to a bday party in the morning, so I'm hoping for an afternoon start time and limited ice sounds good to me. Probably mainly overpasses/sheltered areas of roads. The sun is kicking. Snow/sleet may help I guess but wouldn't anticipate super icy anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro was still really light with precip last night. Tossing that? It will cave to king nam in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro was still really light with precip last night. Tossing that? So was GFS but it is now wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 1-3" early call TM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 So was GFS but it is now wetter.Well it has moved 'SE' a bit already but it was always drier or shunting NW more I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Ice is always over forecasted and under delivered in this area. Very reliable rule of local climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Well it has moved 'SE' a bit already but it was always drier or shunting NW more I think. What's wild to me is the modeling of the highs. You go back a few days and you see maps that aren't even close in that regard to what's now being forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Probably mainly overpasses/sheltered areas of roads. The sun is kicking. Snow/sleet may help I guess but wouldn't anticipate super icy anywhere. Cool, thanks buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 1-3" early call Of sleet and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Did you do 2/29? Shhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 The ice threat is probably a little overstated. It is early March, sun angle, daytime, all that jazz. That being said, I like that the GFS has gotten wetter/colder...the anti-Phineas rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The ice threat is probably a little overstated. It is early March, sun angle, daytime, all that jazz. That being said, I like that the GFS has gotten wetter/colder...the anti-Phineas rule. It's the way we do model trends here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's the way we do model trends here. WJCKY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 All models show we have an ok snow column through noon as long as pecip breaks out early enough to help keep things cold enough in the midlevels. Ground is certainly going to start off cold. I would love a stats padder and a crusty lid on my snowpack. Pretty magical couple of weeks here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The ice threat is probably a little overstated. It is early March, sun angle, daytime, all that jazz. That being said, I like that the GFS has gotten wetter/colder...the anti-Phineas rule. DC is an ICE town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Of sleet and rain? You seem angry this year...wha hoppin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 3 weeks ago (before this latest awesome stretch of winter weather) there would have been 5 pages of posts by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 2PM NAM sounding imby....still snow, barely, but by 3PM, it's sleet/zr but thru 2PM, 6.56mm, or .258" qpf has fallen....not bad if it's right 1024. 62.E -1.9 -2.7 130.9 2.0 1021. 95.E -2.4 -3.5 134.8 1.4 1015. 163.E -2.9 -3.6 133.6 1.8 1012. 211.E -3.3 -3.9 132.5 1.9 1007. 273.E -3.7 -4.1 135.2 2.1 1002. 335.E -4.0 -4.4 139.1 2.3 996. 401.E -4.3 -5.1 143.7 2.4 991. 464.E -4.2 -5.3 171.9 2.9 986. 528.E -3.1 -4.0 202.8 4.3 980. 603.E -1.8 -2.4 219.7 6.0 975. 677.E -1.0 -1.4 224.1 7.4 968. 759.E -0.7 -1.1 219.4 7.4 962. 838.E -0.4 -0.8 216.2 7.7 955. 930.E -0.2 -0.5 212.9 8.1 949. 1019.E -0.2 -0.7 209.2 8.7 942. 1112.E 0.0 -0.5 206.3 9.2 934. 1220.E -0.0 -0.5 204.3 10.3 925. 1336.E 0.0 -0.1 196.4 12.8 915. 1475.E 0.1 -0.0 199.4 14.1 903. 1644.E 0.2 -0.1 206.7 15.2 890. 1832.E -0.3 -0.5 209.8 17.5 857. 2314.E -1.5 -1.9 212.0 15.9 816. 2938.E -2.3 -2.7 219.0 23.0 765. 3747.E -2.2 -2.5 224.2 32.8 707. 4749.E -3.5 -3.8 251.3 34.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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