WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Next Really bad runs....there might not be a next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Really bad runs....there might not be a next You were warned, this is bootleg cold my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I think those maps are pretty useless in these types of situations. It's probably counting all of the precip in the 3 hour period of snow, when the flip to ice is partway through. I'm pretty sure those maps count sleet as snow too. Yeah, I agree. I checked the maps on instant weather and it only showed about half an inch to an inch in northern md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 http://static.ow.ly/photos/original/8PkGC.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Euro is pretty blah this morning. Haven't looked at it in too much detail though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I can't tell y'all how HAPPY and elated I am, that we are gonna get ICE today!!!!!! Soon, it'll be high time for me to get out there and SLIDE !!! WOOT!!! WOOT!!! WOOT!!! WOOT!!! You haven't LIVED, til you go slidin down a road in a plastic sled on an icy surface! Man that's one hell of a FAST RUSH!!!!! One more thing: YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF to go on an Epic Ice Jebwalk at least once in your life! It's exhilarating! Don't even think about using those soccer shoes with the metal prongs on the bottom! You want to use slick soled shoes for an Ice Jebwalk. You want the full value of the ice! Thats what an Ice Jebwalk is all about - defying physics and gravity while enjoying the ice. You get extra points for dancing like Michael Jackson during the Ice Jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The early leaders are being determined right now as a band develops at I64 and I81 and moves east. These communities will see early accumulating snows and will lead the state in snow and ice accumulation thru the event. As usual, my region is clear and dry and will likely remain so into mid morning. One thing I forgot about is that raging strong March sun. It aint February no more. This here is a spring month. We be fightin' climo. I just remembered someone mentioned a small matter known as trajectory. Note how most of the moisture is well north of us? Pennsylvania is being invaded by steady snows as we speak. Virginia is a one of a kind place. Convection down south can rob us of snows. So can moisture entrainment in the north. Virginians are so giving, we freely give to the north and south in these events. Too bad we can't even help ourselves lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 DT final map is out I smell the stench of an epic bust with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 DCA has quick sleet/snow burst for few hrs, then straight to freezing rain all afternoon...ends as a little bit of drizzle/light rain at 7pm per 06z NAM as DCA touches 32... then goes back into the 20s overnight 06z QPF map once again has DCA between 0.4" and 0.5" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 VERY COMPLEXFCST EAST OF THE MTNS... AS A STEADY TREND IN THE GUIDANCE ININCREASING QPF AMOUNTS BUT NOTHING ON THE SCALE OF THE 12Z NAM.HOWEVER... DESPITE THE RETREATING HIGH AND NOT VERY STRONG WARMNOSE WITH THE FLAT SYSTEM... ARCTIC/SHALLOW AIR MASS IS EXPECTEDTO HOLD STRONG AND COULD REPRESENT THE THREAT OF ICING FROM THEWRN CAROLINAS INTO THE NRN MID-ATL STATES. ITS THE CORRIDOR WESTOF I95 THATS MOST WORRISOME ESPECIALLY FROM WRN NC THROUGH SWRN VAINTO THE DC/BAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO SERN PA. WPCGENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS HERE ON QPF AND A BLEND OF 12Z THERMALPROFILES FOR A .10 TO .25 ACCUMULATIONS FROM CLT TO PHL. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Good thing its not a big deal Winter Storm Warnings issued for Southern Baltimore/Carroll/Northern Baltimore/Northwest Harford/Southeast Harford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 342 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 MDZ005-006-011-507-508-011645- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.150301T1200Z-150302T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0008.150301T1200Z-150302T0800Z/ CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN... COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE... JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN 342 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL END AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW AND ICE COVERED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TRAVELLING WILL BE DANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED BELOW ONE-MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I realize that most models are indicating that I wont see any snow or sleet til 11am. I got that. With that said........A band of 15 to 20 dbZ has formed directly over my backyard and over the vicinity. I got no problem with the column taking 7 hours to moisten. I got all day lol I should see a coating of snow/sleet by noon, then steady ZR thru early this evening with about a tenth of an inch of ice. Fun event for early March. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 000FXUS61 KLWX 010915AFDLWXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC415 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015(snip).NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OFNORTHEAST MARYLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AREIN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEWENGLAND TO RICHMOND THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITHDEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THISMORNING WHILE A JET STREAK INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID-WEST.CONFLUENT FLOW AT 850MB HAS LED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ANDPRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIOVALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAS ALSO LEDTO OVERRUNNING. THESE TWO LOW LEVEL JETS HAVE LED TO GULF ANDATLANTIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SNOW ISEXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATEDWITH THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTOTHE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS WELL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATEDWITH THE WWA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TOTHE NORTH AND EAST AND REACH IAD-DCA-BWI BY MID-LATE MORNING. WARMAIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATETHIS MORNING AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY LATEMORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MARYLAND.TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TODAY BUT MAINLY STAY BELOW FREEZING SO SNOWAND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLYAND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TAKEN DOWN SLIGHTLY. THIS EVENT ISEXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A ICING EVENT THAN A SNOW EVENT.A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND DUE TO THEPOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICING DUE TO HIGHER AMTS OF LIQUID EXPECTED INTHIS AREA AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS REGIONIS CLIMATOLOGICAL KNOWN TO STAY COLDER IN COLD AIR DAMMINGSITUATIONS. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AREIN EFFECT FOR AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE TO ONE TO TWO TENTHSACROSS THE N AND W SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE.FREEZING RAIN WILL END FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAYAROUND AND THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTEDTHROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A HAZARDTHIS EVENING AND THEREFORE WW ADVISORIES AND WS WARNING CONTINUESTONIGHT.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERSARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OFSNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Precip is taking its sweet time getting in, I would not be surprised to see flurries and light sleet by noon. Of course by then the sun angle will prevent any accums or accretion. I'd say we're out of the woods with this one lol. DT's map is in danger of a resounding FAIL, at least in the metros. I see most ppl already got a clue, hardly anyone in here LMAO. It's absolutely ASTOUNDING how dumb I am after 35 years of tracking weather, how I still fall for this fail of an ice storm and stayed up all night like the fool I am. next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I have light snow and sleet falling here as of 6 am. 27.8/DP 20.3. About a 50/50 mix, just started in last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Precip is taking its sweet time getting in, I would not be surprised to see flurries and light sleet by noon. Of course by then the sun angle will prevent any accums or accretion. I'd say we're out of the woods with this one lol. DT's map is in danger of a resounding FAIL, at least in the metros. I see most ppl already got a clue, hardly anyone in here LMAO. It's absolutely ASTOUNDING how dumb I am after 35 years of tracking weather, how I still fall for this fail of an ice storm and stayed up all night like the fool I am. next. I didn't think anything was supposed to develop around our area until 10am. It looked like on the models it developed and was coming in from the south. We were dry at this time on the models I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 24/14 with very heavy clouds at 624am. Virga is finally developing on radar, only three and a half hours left to moisten up the column A green band is blossoming over west MD and will slowly move east. I hope MD gets a good shellacking of snow! DT's forecast there might not fail lol. That band however will probably pass north of MBY. There's another area of green near Leesburg! Congrats! You win some, you lose some lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Temp bottomed out overnite at 15.3 before beginning to rise and has been steady at 19.3 for last hour. Still only a high overcast with some pinks in the breaks looking to eastern horizon just before sunrise . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The models have been initializing way too cold for today. The NAM and GFS think that we should be in the upper teens or 20 right now (at least at DCA) while actual temps are mid 20s or higher in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Why do I have a warning? I thought this was no big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The models have been initializing way too cold for today. The NAM and GFS think that we should be in the upper teens or 20 right now (at least at DCA) while actual temps are mid 20s or higher in the DC area. Ha ha we might end up with regular rain this afternoon after all lol I am 26 already. Dewpoint is slow slow slow to rise but that temp is making excellent progress upward. Should easily crest 33 by 10am. Oh well I do need to get all of this UGLY gunk off of my car! Steady regular rain should do a great job of that by tonight. Any reports from that big green BLOB in western MD? They at least should be getting great snow rates up there. The blob is increasing is areal extent and should fill most of central MD by 8am. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Light Snow has started here In Winchester VA. I could see if snowing towards the west over the mountains and then it started. Kind of neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 22/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 snowing pretty good in Hagerstown http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.php?feed=10010d3a00e800dd00451536ea235d0a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The models have been initializing way too cold for today. The NAM and GFS think that we should be in the upper teens or 20 right now (at least at DCA) while actual temps are mid 20s or higher in the DC area. euro had BWI at 26 at 7AM but it's 22 EDIT: I checked DCA and Euro had it at 27 at 7AM and it came in at 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 20 imby. 22/12 at bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Lt/mod sow started about 30 min ago. coating 21.7/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 euro had BWI at 26 at 7AM but it's 22 When does that dry slot plan to fill in for central MD? I like my Sunday AM coffee and newspaper reading with a steady snow flying outside. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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