stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Well, 12z NAM is painting an icy scenario....other models, while not as bullish, show some potential. Let's discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's awful tough to buy into the nam but it's the coldest and snowiest solution...so we can gently hug. lol 6z gfs was similar in some ways. The key period for snow (if any falls) would be between 12-18z. GFS keeps the heavier stuff south into central va and the nam tracks it right through us. GFS gets the surface above freezing between 18-0z but raw is only 33 for most. I assume limited impact on streets and such this time of year. Clouds won't stop the nuclear radiation of march sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's awful tough to buy into the nam but it's the coldest and snowiest solution...so we can gently hug. lol 6z gfs was similar in some ways. The key period for snow (if any falls) would be between 12-18z. GFS keeps the heavier stuff south into central va and the nam tracks it right through us. GFS gets the surface above freezing between 18-0z but raw is only 33 for most. I assume limited impact on streets and such this time of year. Clouds won't stop the nuclear radiation of march sun. It's frustrating...this close to the game and the NAM could be up to the usual shenanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efd Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 2/29?? Not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's frustrating...this close to the game and the NAM could be up to the usual shenanigans.hush now Randyany model that comes in colder is always a friend...remember, we're playing with weenie rules Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 2/29?? Not this year. **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 lol, NAM doesn't get it above freezing until after rush hour Monday morning. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 lol, NAM doesn't get it above freezing until after rush hour Monday morning. Whatever. works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The NAM looks like about .3 as snow and .3 as ice at IAD. In reallity we'll probably get dry slotted and that temps will rise more then forecasted with the onset of precipitation. I guess if it starts as snow that could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I have worked the last few days and have been impressed at how consistent the NAM has been. It has been showing this solution for several runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Doesn't mean the NAM is correct but it has been quite consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nam's problem, I think, is that it is too heavy with the precip so it ends up cooling the atmosphere at all levels. Reduce the qpf like the other models, and you get a warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 How much for SE VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Things have trended in our favor over the last few weeks. No reason to think that stops now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 How much for SE VA? Asshat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think the NAM would be a decent period of snow to start. Small warm layer below 850, but barely above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nam should handle sfc better. Maybe. But if it's ice who cares in late Feb. Snow or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 EARLY MARCH OMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 How come there's no such thing as a summary mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nam should handle sfc better. Maybe. But if it's ice who cares in late Feb. Snow or bust. Add in daylight to the "ice" and you have "why bother" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 How come there's no such thing as a summary mix?You should coin the term. Any day over 90 with high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You should coin the term. Any day over 90 with high humidity.Yes. Also autocorrect. Summery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yes. Also autocorrect. Summery. That's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z GFS looks a little snowy tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nam can't be right...bright blue skies and the all clear signal been give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nam can't be right...bright blue skies and the all clear signal been give You know how those all clears work out around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Models are running well this morning. Might as well be daylight savings time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 **** Did you do 2/29? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS is namish. Snow until noon or so then zr for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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