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Thumpidity Dumpity or SWFiter Rainer 3-4/3-5 storm


Ginx snewx

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Man..every system this winter..just deamplifies coming east. We've still got 3 + days to have this cold trend continue. Starting to wonder if we can get it to go out south of LI

We really only have another 24-36 hours. The models won't move too much once inside of 48 hours.

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We really only have another 24-36 hours. The models won't move too much once inside of 48 hours.

Well we've gone from mild to warm rains to snow to ice to cold drizzle. I don't believe we're done trending that way quite yet.

 

The euro also jumped this past Thursday's storm north like 75 miles in one run..Not that , that will happen with this..but still room to move

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Well we've gone from mild to warm rains to snow to ice to cold drizzle. I don't believe we're done trending that way quite yet.

The euro also jumped this past Thursday's storm north like 75 miles in one run..Not that , that will happen with this..but still room to move

It still could go back the other way. We are at the window where models wobble, but better solutions today anyways.

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I don't think much has changed since yesterday. Looks like some snow (maybe a few inches?) to rain and then we are in a mild regime Wednesday with any breaks of sun bringing us well into the 40s. The Euro op was no on the anafrontal, but the ensembles were a bit more bullish.

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Good disco from BOX on why to lean cold

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND

LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

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I dont see this as a big icing problem without a good dewpoint feed....there could be pockets where it hangs on longer at marginal temps...I'd think the biggest threat might be in places like DXR up just W of BDL where the initial snow thump changes over the fastest.

 

it could be one of those events where it's raining but some spots on driveways that were iced over continue to accumulate ice.

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I feel like the anafront wave is tredning in the wrong direction right now...it's gotten more squashed and SE int he past 24 hours.

 

I'll be surprised if we see more than an inch or two out of it...and won't be shocked if it's a whiff. Maybe it will trend back better today.

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