ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I've def been impressed by all the quarter and half mile obs out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wife reporting snow at work in Stamford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Disagree Solar gets through clouds you know. And with March sun it is going to Morch for a bit. Also the BL height gets above 900mb even with the clouds so you mix that down and you still get low 40s. You denied it last time and denying it again. Stop trolling jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Solar gets through clouds you know. And with March sun it is going to Morch for a bit. Also the BL height gets above 900mb even with the clouds so you mix that down and you still get low 40s. You denied it last time and denying it again. Stop trolling jesus.Actually I'm not . It stays cloudy with drizzle and fog and light winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bases all across Maine are 3-4 feet, thats pretty epic of course its a stats game with peeps but in reality a fantastic winter for winter sports enthusiasts Just got back from doing snow surveys across Cumberland and York Counties. A solid 2-3 feet everywhere we went, with anywhere between 5 and 7 inches in the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I hate both of these front and back end crappy events... Whatever 2" here 2" there We snow blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Just got back from doing snow surveys across Cumberland and York Counties. A solid 2-3 feet everywhere we went, with anywhere between 5 and 7 inches in the snow pack. My w/e was 5.88 yesterday, depth 27. The later we go into March the worse I imagine spring floods will be. I just walked around my works roof top gardens, 35,000 sq feet. I got walls 3-4 feet in height buried to the top. Pretty crazy for SECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I hate both of these front and back end crappy events... Whatever 2" here 2" there We snow blah Agreed. Forcing may stay good out by you though. Small chance at 4"+ tonight. Small chance of 4+ near zero out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My w/e was 5.88 yesterday, depth 27. The later we go into March the worse I imagine spring floods will be. I just walked around my works roof top gardens, 35,000 sq feet. I got walls 3-4 feet in height buried to the top. Pretty crazy for SECT It's amazing how consistent it was around here. Everything between 22.5 and 27 inches depth, and 5.2 and 7.5 inches liquid equivalent. I will say though, unless our big warm up comes with rain it's hard to really have significant flooding around here. Even the Great Morch of 2012 was mostly a slow melt off despite jumping up into the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's amazing how consistent it was around here. Everything between 22.5 and 27 inches depth, and 5.2 and 7.5 inches liquid equivalent. I will say though, unless our big warm up comes with rain it's hard to really have significant flooding around here. Even the Great Morch of 2012 was mostly a slow melt off despite jumping up into the 80s. it didn't melt slow at SR. The sound of the rocks tumbling through the culverts all night long was very cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's amazing how consistent it was around here. Everything between 22.5 and 27 inches depth, and 5.2 and 7.5 inches liquid equivalent. I will say though, unless our big warm up comes with rain it's hard to really have significant flooding around here. Even the Great Morch of 2012 was mostly a slow melt off despite jumping up into the 80s. 2010 was amazing around SNE for flooding in March. ...It was like, three weekends in a row, a cut-off low/hybrid warm conveyor set up a firehose along just off the EC that fisted in from due south .. inland across the hapless region (we stick out into the Atlantic in actuality..). It was 5" one weekend, 8" the next, 6" after that. I Met buddy and I went down to CT for crappes and on the way, where the road elevated above trees along hill sides, the floors of the forest was often en masse in motion as giant rivers of flood water had inundated ... and this visage wasn't even in the river/stream valleys. The water rose and fell over rocks and down logs and other forest detritus, as those irate and lost looking for a river bed to appropriate its self. A small babbling brook... normally it raises 6" over stones in the stream bed, rose to an astounding 12' of depth, and flooded over some of down town Ayer (my town). I've oft since imagined what that would have been like should it take place in a year like this. Don't have to imagine ... at some point in history is has.. I live in Nashoba Valley, which is in general essentially a great fluvial plain ... probably one that goes underwater every 5,000 years of something/whatever. Still, you're right. I have noticed that 'hard to flood' sort of result down this way too. I think it has to do with old geology, and having had the land mass weather so many cataclysms, there are - for lack of better conceptual words - established large-event-run-off regions; perhaps even mass-connected to tabling and so forth. And it's really hard to exceed those. The closest I have seen was the Merrimack River around mama's day, 2005. That sucker went almost completely laminar right over the Pawtucket Falls damn up there next to UML. Just sort of a lazy impression of a standing hump of water where the drop was normally. I went to school there for five years and never saw that river that high... The canal down by University Aver bridge is some 50 to 70 foot beneath the bridge span, and the water was half way up! By and large tho, my experience with flooding around here is that it really kind of needs something super special to get it out of control. interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 it didn't melt slow at SR. The sound of the rocks tumbling through the culverts all night long was very cool In a relative sense. We didn't have significant flooding that season, because it never rained during that entire warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Word! ...the other thing I'm wondering.. .the rad returns are moving due E, with almost no detectable polaward bias, which leads me to wonder if the models are too aggressive with warm air intrusion (though perhaps aloft) for a system appearing ever more destined to be W-E oriented... It's ending as a zr in lower michigan and indiana and so forth. I've been thinking that.....everything has crunched se, and this time we are actually positioned to avail of ithat. 2-5" final call in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So...about the snow When is start time for BOS approx? 6'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Word! ...the other thing I'm wondering.. .the rad returns are moving due E, with almost no detectable polaward bias, which leads me to wonder if the models are too aggressive with warm air intrusion (though perhaps aloft) for a system appearing ever more destined to be W-E oriented... It's ending as a zr in lower michigan and indiana and so forth. I hope you are right. I am an avowed radar hallucinator (see my handle) but it does have that shunted squashed look at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 In a relative sense. We didn't have significant flooding that season, because it never rained during that entire warm spell. Yeah you can melt out fairly quick, but it usually takes a heavy rain event on top of melting snowpack to set off big flooding. I can't recall a year where we melted off a snowpack in dry weather and had flooding problems. At any rate, I might be taking the over on 3" here if the upstream obs keep up and the radar continues to expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's amazing how consistent it was around here. Everything between 22.5 and 27 inches depth, and 5.2 and 7.5 inches liquid equivalent. I will say though, unless our big warm up comes with rain it's hard to really have significant flooding around here. Even the Great Morch of 2012 was mostly a slow melt off despite jumping up into the 80s. By the heatwave in 2012, only the mountains still had significant snowpack. However, I agree totally with the "no rain, no big flood" thinking. My 26" pack had 5.69" SWE Saturday; last year on 3/1 I had 26" and 8.02", or about 40% more water. After a 30" March plus the end of month cold rain, a core taken 4/5 showed 11.25", far more than this year's pack is likely to reach. We then went six weeks without a significant rain event and all that water flowed meekly into the Atlantic. In 2008 my SWE probably approached 13-14" by the end of March, but April was quite dry until the last couple days, by which time the W.Maine snowpack was minimal. Not so for the St.John - when the 3-4" rain came on 4/29, that area was in full-out snowmelt already, and record flooding was the result. in 1987 my SWE (in Gardiner) probably peaked between 7 and 8 inches, and from the stats, Farmington had about the same, though probably 20% was gone when the late March thaw arrived. However, that thaw - a week of 50s/60s followed by 4-7" RA at 50F on 3/31-4/1 - produced some awesome record flows. The Kennebec reached 232,000 cfs, and hasn't topped 102,000 since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah you can melt out fairly quick, but it usually takes a heavy rain event on top of melting snowpack to set off big flooding. I can't recall a year where we melted off a snowpack in dry weather and had flooding problems. At any rate, I might be taking the over on 3" here if the upstream obs keep up and the radar continues to expand. 3-6 lol, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah you can melt out fairly quick, but it usually takes a heavy rain event on top of melting snowpack to set off big flooding. I can't recall a year where we melted off a snowpack in dry weather and had flooding problems. At any rate, I might be taking the over on 3" here if the upstream obs keep up and the radar continues to expand. Models seem to be hitting the WAA driven f-gen pretty hard this afternoon across NY. They do weaken it slightly as it comes east, but still a nice wave of lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hope the precip comes in a wall. Dews are still below zero around here, and given the rather paltry qpf (on gfs, anyway), don't want too much to sublimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Models seem to be hitting the WAA driven f-gen pretty hard this afternoon across NY. They do weaken it slightly as it comes east, but still a nice wave of lift. As long as its "slightly". Maybe 5" in Pittsfield incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 First flakes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 As long as its "slightly". Maybe 5" in Pittsfield incoming RAP really blew up the 850 f-gen between 18-21z, coinciding nicely with the 1/4SM at BUF and 1/2SM at SYR and ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 2010 was amazing around SNE for flooding in March. ...It was like, three weekends in a row, a cut-off low/hybrid warm conveyor set up a firehose along just off the EC that fisted in from due south .. inland across the hapless region (we stick out into the Atlantic in actuality..). It was 5" one weekend, 8" the next, 6" after that. I Met buddy and I went down to CT for crappes and on the way, where the road elevated above trees along hill sides, the floors of the forest was often en masse in motion as giant rivers of flood water had inundated ... and this visage wasn't even in the river/stream valleys. The water rose and fell over rocks and down logs and other forest detritus, as those irate and lost looking for a river bed to appropriate its self. A small babbling brook... normally it raises 6" over stones in the stream bed, rose to an astounding 12' of depth, and flooded over some of down town Ayer (my town). I've oft since imagined what that would have been like should it take place in a year like this. Don't have to imagine ... at some point in history is has.. I live in Nashoba Valley, which is in general essentially a great fluvial plain ... probably one that goes underwater every 5,000 years of something/whatever. Still, you're right. I have noticed that 'hard to flood' sort of result down this way too. I think it has to do with old geology, and having had the land mass weather so many cataclysms, there are - for lack of better conceptual words - established large-event-run-off regions; perhaps even mass-connected to tabling and so forth. And it's really hard to exceed those. The closest I have seen was the Merrimack River around mama's day, 2005. That sucker went almost completely laminar right over the Pawtucket Falls damn up there next to UML. Just sort of a lazy impression of a standing hump of water where the drop was normally. I went to school there for five years and never saw that river that high... The canal down by University Aver bridge is some 50 to 70 foot beneath the bridge span, and the water was half way up! By and large tho, my experience with flooding around here is that it really kind of needs something super special to get it out of control. interesting.. 2006. I remember that....I was attending UML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I just took a gander at the Radar, and wow, that's a wall of Precip heading due East from NY and PA right into SNE. This may do better than first thought. But I could be wrong too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Obs thread opened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm going to take a rear end dump on these front end thump systems, at this point I think a 5 inch rainstorm with flooding is the most excitement we'll get from this point forward, as there's no storms lined up except for the couple cutters beyond 300 hundred hours on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 2006. I remember that....I was attending UML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Will, is it me or is that precip wall on radar getting shredded as it moves east? Which would align with the models for QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm going to take a rear end dump on these front end thump systems, at this point I think a 5 inch rainstorm with flooding is the most excitement we'll get from this point forward, as there's no storms lined up except for the couple cutters beyond 300 hundred hours on the GFS oh man, i think around the 20th i will need to repost this, similar to his mid Jan meltdown. we are going to have a thaw, expect it embrace it then watch the reload in front of your very weenie for the grand finale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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