SR Airglow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGem is close tonight Would be 3" ish I think if it verified. HRRR/RAP are both pretty bullish also. I don't think it falls, but wonder if we can get to <1". That would make me feel a lot better about our chances to break it on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I still think we'll be hard pressed to see many totals exceed 3" this evening. I'm sticking with a 1-3" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Down to 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The low level temperatures are pretty cold throughout the event. If 36 is the precedent for freezing rain like BOX suggested than GFS would be a nice little icing event. Temps don't rise higher than 33F really here on the GFS. NAM is 36F at it's peak. The GEM is actually hilarious because it almost has an all snow event. I'm tossing the GEM hard. RGEM actually sort of is majority snow here too. So I guess you have to give it some credence. I'm going to go 2-4" here. Yea, standard 2-5" swfe...AWT all along. Can probably cut back to 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Why does that map have w MA with twice as much snow as ne MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Would be 3" ish I think if it verified. HRRR/RAP are both pretty bullish also. I don't think it falls, but wonder if we can get to <1". That would make me feel a lot better about our chances to break it on Thursday. I've been following both the HRRR RAP pretty extensively and comparing it to BTV WRF and HRDPS throughout this winter. I find that NAM/BTV WRF/HRDPS are much more useful at a longer timeframe. NAM sniffed out a few features in events this winter at an early lead time. Along with those other models mentioned. HRRR RAP are utterly useless until precip is almost entering the region or already falling. Seem to be good for short term periods of time a few hours ahead to predict banding and other small features. Just too volatile at this time frame to be useful. WRF BTV almost seems like northern mass dryslots after the meaningful precip is pretty much done. Minimal snowpack damage? This is probably the time period we see the interior and northern mass take over the snowpack lead as climo heads toward spring. Coastal plain cannot sustain this snowpack deep into March without continued events. Climo clock is ticking fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Why does that map have w MA with twice as much snow as ne MA? Some models had better forcing there and along the south coast believe it or not. Not sure it plays out like that, but some of the mesos showed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Why does that map have w MA with twice as much snow as ne MA? I'm seeing better forcing on modeling for that area compared to ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Some models had better forcing there and along the south coast believe it or not. Not sure it plays out like that, but some of the mesos showed this. I'm not sure I buy that. No confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm seeing better forcing on modeling for that area compared to ours. I'm seeing BS, like the fraud anal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 More and more I look at modeling I'd say this is more close to 2" than a 4" snowfall here, Ray. Judging by your posts you are in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Think Ice might be a problem in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 More and more I look at modeling I'd say this is more close to 2" than a 4" snowfall here, Ray. Judging by your posts you are in agreement. Remarkable how every bit of potential has been minimized around here since some treid to tell me that the pattern didn't really change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm not sure I buy that. No confluence. What happens is that the LLJ sort of peaks and I think precip forms along that axis before getting shoved south a bit...towards offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Remarkable how every bit of potential has been minimized around here since some treid to tell me that the pattern didn't really change. The pattern did change. I think people are confused by that statement though. It has changed, but remained a wintry pattern. No big storms, we haven't threaded any needles, and events have been minimal. This is the luck factor Scott and Will talk about. We haven't had any. But it hasn't been terrible and we have maintained frigid temperatures, massive snowpack. I would be extremely surprised if much of the region doesn't add at minumum 10" between now and actual spring. (March is fraud spring) If you can't add to the snowpack, all you can ask for is it not melting. I'd argue it's more about records at this point in the season. Spring is coming. We just need the snow to add up to make this historical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro is very icey, Hippy will like this run with his hamlet ice fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 The pattern did change. I think people are confused by that statement though. It has changed, but remained a wintry pattern. No big storms, we haven't threaded any needles, and events have been minimal. This is the luck factor Scott and Will talk about. We haven't had any. But it hasn't been terrible and we have maintained frigid temperatures, massive snowpack. I would be extremely surprised if much of the region doesn't add at minumum 10" between now and actual spring. (March is fraud spring) There hasn't been a single sub 980 to miss, luck had nothing to do with the atmosphere relaxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Remarkable how every bit of potential has been minimized around here since some treid to tell me that the pattern didn't really change. This sounds like a post from January 20th or before, haha. Every potential minimized except for the three week period where every potential was maximized on steroids . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 This sounds like a post from January 20th or before, haha. Every potential minimized except for the three week period where every potential was maximized on steroids . I haven't seen any big potential, mostly crappy sheared out stuff, don't even know what you guys are talking about. We haven't just missed anything. the pattern for deep storms changed that is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro is 2-3" for much of SNE and 3-6" for SW CT over to New Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro is 2-3" for much of SNE and 3-6" for SC CT over to New Haven. front end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro is very icey, Hippy will like this run with his hamlet ice fetish Frost the cake and then apply a glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 front end? No not front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I haven't seen any big potential, mostly crappy sheared out stuff, don't even know what you guys are talking about. We haven't just missed anything. the pattern for deep storms changed that is all. The last event could have easily been a solid warning event for many, not just a marginal one for a small sliver of CT to RI...we're not talking 20" blizzards, but there's no doubt we've seen some under-performance in the moderate potential. The anafront had potential too, just because it ends up as a 1-3 or 3-5 strung out event doesn't mean there wasn't potential for a solid 8-12 event. There is definitely a chaos element to snow events. You have to get the right nuances (or chaos) to break your way quite frequently. Some call that luck, others call it chaos...whatever you want to call it though, it is on a scale that is less than the longwave pattern can dictate. So while the longwave pattern shifted into a state where it was much harder to get 21" snowstorms like they were growing on trees, it didn't mean that we couldn't get some of these moderate to heavy events (like 8-12 inchers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bases all across Maine are 3-4 feet, thats pretty epic of course its a stats game with peeps but in reality a fantastic winter for winter sports enthusiasts Not really, based on cocorahs reports. Of 55 reporting today, 28 reported snow depth. Of those, 27 had 21" or more (Skowhegan with 7.5"?) but only 8 had 30"+, 4 made the 3 ft mark, and only EPO (64"!) had more than 40. I'm at 26", exactly the same as last year this date, also exactly the same as on Feb 1. PWM reports 22" OG thru yesterday, BGR 50", CAR 20". Snow maps show Ft.Kent in the 10-12" color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 No not front end. this is a front end thread, so confuzzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Examining 850T/950T. Definitely cooler than 0z. QPF is more paltry also FWIW. Euro is way warmer than other guidance for Wednesday afternoon at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 front end? No not front end. ? That is front end totals it appears on my wxbell products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Examining 850T/950T. Definitely cooler than 0z. QPF is more paltry also FWIW. Euro is way warmer than other guidance for Wednesday afternoon at the surface. I think you need to quantify and qualify your diagnosis to this particular front end thread otherwise its more confusing than it already is, wed afternoon the precip is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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