TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Rgem has blown dead rats for the past few events for mby. Yeah its been bad, especially the event last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 WWA up from BOX, take what we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 WWA up from BOX, take what we can getstats padder storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 stats padder storm Gotta hope to get 2" before the changeover and then hail mary 2" more out of the rest of the season (anafrontal?) to hit that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's done well in CT for whatever reason. Very well the last 2 events in the state I nominate the RGEM the official border-to-border model for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 stats padder storm She's not going to be pretty but it will pad the bosom and lock up the pack even more so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I nominate the RGEM the official border-to-border model for CT. The Nutmeg State now the RGEM State? Has a certain ring to it I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ( <----think this is supposed to say Wednesday)1) HIGHLIGHTS... - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE 2) OVERVIEW... INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/. TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW... 3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE... VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85 THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT. SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW- NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK. 4) SNOWFALL... MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS. OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S- FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES. 5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES. FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB- FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S- N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT. PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN. SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING- MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED. EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH. 6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 We will see how this unfolds, 4-6" right now looks doable, But that alone won't get you there, All in all, Feb was not a record setter up here for my area, SW Maine and DE Maine it was though From CAR's Feb summary: EASTPORT IN WASHINGTON COUNTY OBSERVED 82.3 INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH IS AN UNOFFICIAL ALL-TIME RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR ANY LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. Most I've found for the GYX CWA is 88.3" at Long Falls Dam in Feb. 1969. They had 56" in the end of month mega-dump. Of course, Pinkham Notch had 130" that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 From CAR's Feb summary: EASTPORT IN WASHINGTON COUNTY OBSERVED 82.3 INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH IS AN UNOFFICIAL ALL-TIME RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR ANY LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. Most I've found for the GYX CWA is 88.3" at Long Falls Dam in Feb. 1969. They had 56" in the end of month mega-dump. Of course, Pinkham Notch had 130" that month. That would make sense for Eastport, They have been hit very hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18 z RGEM increased snow amounts a bit from 12 z for tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That's a weird map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yea rgem has been good in CT for whatever reason all winter actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 does the snow move in before the evening commute tomorrow? trying to figure out if I should get in early tomorrow so I can leave earlier and not get cluster jammed in HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 does the snow move in before the evening commute tomorrow? trying to figure out if I should get in early tomorrow so I can leave earlier and not get cluster jammed in HFD.Yeah.. Looks like 3:00-4:00 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah.. Looks like 3:00-4:00 ish Ok that's not too bad, roads should be ok unless it comes in like a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That's a weird map. RGEM has not done very well up here and that qpf distribution is pretty spotty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 RGEM has not done very well up here and that qpf distribution is pretty spotty pretty spotty probably = whiff again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think this winds up being pretty meh for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think this winds up being pretty meh for mostI don't recall a storm over the last 10 years that you haven't said that about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't recall a storm over the last 10 years that you haven't said that about Just keep realistic expectations, 2-4 range seems appropriate at the 4's will probably be the exception and not the rule unless the modeling really starts to key in on some enhancements or weenie bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 18z NAM earlier had the antifrontal snow line right over our hiney giving us like a foot. Just looking at it was enthralling. Looks like the MA will get the brunt of it Though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z NAM juiced for the front ender wow. I'm not sure I buy it but that is one hell of a WAA thump for sure. Like 1"/hr for like 3-4 hours before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z NAM juiced for the front ender wow. I'm not sure I buy it but that is one hell of a WAA thump for sure. Like 1"/hr for like 3-4 hours before the changeover. if only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z NAM juiced for the front ender wow. I'm not sure I buy it but that is one hell of a WAA thump for sure. Like 1"/hr for like 3-4 hours before the changeover. Ray will like that little minimum in Ne MassSeriously thou another 3" would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Shoot, if it comes in hard and fast might just have to bounce from work early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM is a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Shoot, if it comes in hard and fast might just have to bounce from work early.These tend to come in quicker too I think. Probably 4-6pm in W SNE. 5-7pm in E SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM is a minimum.useless, but have to say I took the 25 % off the 6 it had for me yesterday and still ended up with 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 These tend to come in quicker too I think. Probably 4-6pm in W SNE. 5-7pm in E SNE? I'm just trying to figure out how it comes in. If it's light snow for 2-3 hrs then no big deal, just wet highways. But if it hits fast then that's a problem, Esp around HFD. My commute sucks as it, add 1"hr rates during rush hour, forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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