tamarack Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS has been lowballing qpf as events get closer for at least a month. For my part of the world, that's been quite accurate (got 0.3" on 0.04" LE last night, even lower than gfs for RUM.) The 06z clown map cut in half the 4" shown on the 00z map, so I'm not too optimistic. Given the mid-range modeling, I think I'll make it to the mid-month warmup without having seen an event with 1/4" LE since Groudhog Day. Another Maine poster said "table scraps", and that pictures it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS has been lowballing qpf as events get closer for at least a month. For my part of the world, that's been quite accurate (got 0.3" on 0.04" LE last night, even lower than gfs for RUM.) The 06z clown map cut in half the 4" shown on the 00z map, so I'm not too optimistic. Given the mid-range modeling, I think I'll make it to the mid-month warmup without having seen an event with 1/4" LE since Groudhog Day. Another Maine poster said "table scraps", and that pictures it well. Accurate here, too. Junk events since 2/15. I expect that to continue. Crap front end, crap ana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS continues to be on the lower side of guidance for tomorrow night...an inch or two would do it in a GFS scenario. What does the RGEM look like for tomorrow night? I know It's at the end of it's range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What does the RGEM look like for tomorrow night? I know It's at the end of it's range Tomorrow night it's a 1-3/2-4 type event...most in NE MA into SE NH and S ME where 4-6 falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Tomorrow night it's a 1-3/2-4 type event...most in NE MA into SE NH and S ME where 4-6 falls. Thx. Ice??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Accurate here, too. Junk events since 2/15. I expect that to continue. Crap front end, crap ana. Yup. Except up here it's "since 2/2" and ana is a clean miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 This has been a greater finish than 11 here,keep padding and adding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 new GGEM is pretty chilly compared to the GFS with more precip on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 new GGEM is pretty chilly compared to the GFS with more precip on the front end. GFS is definitely the least impressive on the front end. GGEM, RGEM, and nam are probably 2-4 while euro (00z) is a solid 3-5 and GFS lags with 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS is definitely the least impressive on the front end. GGEM, RGEM, and nam are probably 2-4 while euro (00z) is a solid 3-5 and GFS lags with 1-2. GFS is definitely the least impressive on the front end. GGEM, RGEM, and nam are probably 2-4 while euro (00z) is a solid 3-5 and GFS lags with 1-2. I said earlier, I usually assume a 2-5" front ender, unless I see guidance emphatically suggesting otherwise within 48 hours of said event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 EURO still showing a 3-5" front end thumper like 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 EURO still showing a 3-5" front end thumper like 0z? Looks like 2-3" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yup. Except up here it's "since 2/2" and ana is a clean miss. The last six events up here have been on the low side as far as snowfall goes, We have been fringed or whiffed, So i would not be surprised tomorrow nights falls on the lower side as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like 2-3" for most. And the anafront? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 And the anafront? We have a seperate thread for that http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45923-anafrontal-thumpul-discussion-35/page-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wednesday still has a 40s look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wednesday still has a 40s look. In all areas or coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 In all areas or coastal? I wish winds would stay east at this point. Cold ocean and more mositure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The last six events up here have been on the low side as far as snowfall goes, We have been fringed or whiffed, So i would not be surprised tomorrow nights falls on the lower side as well i'll be pretty ticked if I don't make it to the century club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 i'll be pretty ticked if I don't make it to the century club. We will see how this unfolds, 4-6" right now looks doable, But that alone won't get you there, All in all, Feb was not a record setter up here for my area, SW Maine and DE Maine it was though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I wonder if BOX ups their snow map a tick or a louse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 We will see how this unfolds, 4-6" right now looks doable, But that alone won't get you there, All in all, Feb was not a record setter up here for my area, SW Maine and DE Maine it was though yeah, fingers crossed. I'll give it another 2 weeks or so. After that, onward to spring. Just starting to get into the groove with skiiing and riding. If we didn't lose most of january.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 yeah, fingers crossed. I'll give it another 2 weeks or so. After that, onward to spring. Just starting to get into the groove with skiiing and riding. If we didn't lose most of january.... I have been out every weekend and one day last week, Conditions are prime and this should help for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 In all areas or coastal? Mostly coastal and dependent on any breaks of sun. I mean it's pre fropa, west flow, torch aloft...it wouldn't surprise me if it's more widespread. It's not exactly sticking your neck out to say that. It also wouldn't surprise me to stay near 38 and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 ALY map- for the 3 people this affects on this board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Rgem has blown dead rats for the past few events for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Mostly coastal and dependent on any breaks of sun. I mean it's pre fropa, west flow, torch aloft...it wouldn't surprise me if it's more widespread. It's not exactly sticking your neck out to say that. It also wouldn't surprise me to stay near 38 and cloudy. Yeah this sounds like one of those numbing temp debates where if it hits 38F for 5 hours and someone said it could get to 40F, they will be all over it saying ti didn't verify....lol. The safest thing to say it probably that we will spend hours above freezing on Wednesday and there's a good chance that we are pretty close to 40F...if not above. Really protected areas may hold at like 33F for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Rgem has blown dead rats for the past few events for mby. It's done well in CT for whatever reason. Very well the last 2 events in the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Mostly coastal and dependent on any breaks of sun. I mean it's pre fropa, west flow, torch aloft...it wouldn't surprise me if it's more widespread. It's not exactly sticking your neck out to say that. It also wouldn't surprise me to stay near 38 and cloudy.Thanks Scooter. Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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