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Thumpidity Dumpity or SWFiter Rainer 3-4/3-5 storm


Ginx snewx

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GFS has been lowballing qpf as events get closer for at least a month.  For my part of the world, that's been quite accurate (got 0.3" on 0.04" LE last night, even lower than gfs for RUM.)   The 06z clown map cut in half the 4" shown on the 00z map, so I'm not too optimistic.  Given the mid-range modeling, I think I'll make it to the mid-month warmup without having seen an event with 1/4" LE since Groudhog Day.  Another Maine poster said "table scraps", and that pictures it well.

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  On 3/2/2015 at 4:07 PM, tamarack said:

GFS has been lowballing qpf as events get closer for at least a month.  For my part of the world, that's been quite accurate (got 0.3" on 0.04" LE last night, even lower than gfs for RUM.)   The 06z clown map cut in half the 4" shown on the 00z map, so I'm not too optimistic.  Given the mid-range modeling, I think I'll make it to the mid-month warmup without having seen an event with 1/4" LE since Groudhog Day.  Another Maine poster said "table scraps", and that pictures it well.

 Accurate here, too.

Junk events since 2/15.

I expect that to continue.

Crap front end, crap ana.

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  On 3/2/2015 at 3:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS continues to be on the lower side of guidance for tomorrow night...an inch or two would do it in a GFS scenario.

What does the RGEM look like for tomorrow night?  I know It's at the end of it's range

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  On 3/2/2015 at 4:11 PM, leesun said:

What does the RGEM look like for tomorrow night?  I know It's at the end of it's range

 

 

Tomorrow night it's a 1-3/2-4 type event...most in NE MA into SE NH and S ME where 4-6 falls.

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  On 3/2/2015 at 5:26 PM, Max said:

new GGEM is pretty chilly compared to the GFS with more precip on the front end.

GFS is definitely the least impressive on the front end. GGEM, RGEM, and nam are probably 2-4 while euro (00z) is a solid 3-5 and GFS lags with 1-2.

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  On 3/2/2015 at 5:42 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is definitely the least impressive on the front end. GGEM, RGEM, and nam are probably 2-4 while euro (00z) is a solid 3-5 and GFS lags with 1-2.

 

  On 3/2/2015 at 5:42 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is definitely the least impressive on the front end. GGEM, RGEM, and nam are probably 2-4 while euro (00z) is a solid 3-5 and GFS lags with 1-2.

 

I said earlier, I usually assume a 2-5" front ender, unless I see guidance emphatically suggesting otherwise within 48 hours of said event. 

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  On 3/2/2015 at 4:21 PM, tamarack said:

Yup.  Except up here it's "since 2/2" and ana is a clean miss.

 

The last six events up here have been on the low side as far as snowfall goes, We have been fringed or whiffed, So i would not be surprised tomorrow nights falls on the lower side as well

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  On 3/2/2015 at 7:45 PM, Lava Rock said:

i'll be pretty ticked if I don't make it to the century club.

 

We will see how this unfolds, 4-6" right now looks doable, But that alone won't get you there, All in all, Feb was not a record setter up here for my area, SW Maine and DE Maine it was though

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  On 3/2/2015 at 7:48 PM, dryslot said:

We will see how this unfolds, 4-6" right now looks doable, But that alone won't get you there, All in all, Feb was not a record setter up here for my area, SW Maine and DE Maine it was though

yeah, fingers crossed. I'll give it another 2 weeks or so. After that, onward to spring. Just starting to get into the groove with skiiing and riding. If we didn't lose most of january....

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  On 3/2/2015 at 7:58 PM, Lava Rock said:

yeah, fingers crossed. I'll give it another 2 weeks or so. After that, onward to spring. Just starting to get into the groove with skiiing and riding. If we didn't lose most of january....

 

I have been out every weekend and one day last week, Conditions are prime and this should help for sure

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  On 3/2/2015 at 7:22 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

In all areas or coastal?

Mostly coastal and dependent on any breaks of sun. I mean it's pre fropa, west flow, torch aloft...it wouldn't surprise me if it's more widespread. It's not exactly sticking your neck out to say that. It also wouldn't surprise me to stay near 38 and cloudy.

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  On 3/2/2015 at 8:12 PM, CoastalWx said:

Mostly coastal and dependent on any breaks of sun. I mean it's pre fropa, west flow, torch aloft...it wouldn't surprise me if it's more widespread. It's not exactly sticking your neck out to say that. It also wouldn't surprise me to stay near 38 and cloudy.

 

 

Yeah this sounds like one of those numbing temp debates where if it hits 38F for 5 hours and someone said it could get to 40F, they will be all over it saying ti didn't verify....lol.

 

The safest thing to say it probably that we will spend hours above freezing on Wednesday and there's a good chance that we are pretty close to 40F...if not above.

 

Really protected areas may hold at like 33F for a while.

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  On 3/2/2015 at 8:12 PM, CoastalWx said:

Mostly coastal and dependent on any breaks of sun. I mean it's pre fropa, west flow, torch aloft...it wouldn't surprise me if it's more widespread. It's not exactly sticking your neck out to say that. It also wouldn't surprise me to stay near 38 and cloudy.

Thanks Scooter. Makes sense
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