Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Potential mixed bag storm. Discuss model output,trends, thoughts,potential impacts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Some indicators of a post fropa wave development, discuss this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looks to me like 3-6 or 4-8 of snow to ice/mix interior..then maybe ends as 34 rain..back to snow..certainly no warm rains. Less amplified is the way to forecast this. Trends and friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Still looks pretty ugly to me. Some front end snow. Maybe anafrontal too , but that is usually something that needs to wait. Hopefully it trends colder. Haven't seen euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 SOME AREAS OF WRN MA...AND THE HILLS OF NRN CT MAY ACTUALLY STAY AS A MIX OFSLEET FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MAYBE SOME SNOW GIVEN THAT THE SFCWARM FRONT MAY STALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITHAS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE ITDOESN/T SWITCH TO RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 And if it doesn't stall, heavy heavy spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Given the high position right now, seems like a lot of SNE could warm sector. Right now anyways. Maybe it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 With this inside 96 hours and coming quickly on the heals of the Sunday night system the added weight to roofs and potential urban flooding will be need to be monitored. The post fropa thermal contrast is very intense. Any small wave development will act on that contrast and will need to be watched. Some analogs are very juicy and Leonesque, (prolific overunning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 And if it doesn't stall, heavy heavy spring. You ain't ramming a warm front into New Englandwith all this snow /ice and CAD..LOL.. When you look deeper on your iMac and not your phone..you'll see the bagginess reflected in weak secondary off LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You ain't ramming a warm front into New Englandwith all this snow /ice and CAD..LOL.. When you look deeper on your iMac and not your phone..you'll see the bagginess reflected in weak secondary of LI What a horrible and dumb comment. You don't learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 What a horrible and dumb comment. You don't learn. Wake me up when your spring and warm rains happens on Wednesday..lol. Good luck to you !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Kevin, what exactly do you mean. Does the Euro show the warm front getting hung up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Kevin, what exactly do you mean. Does the Euro show the warm front getting hung up? I see some bagginess (not on the Euro) can't see that... that indicates to me a weak surface reflection off of LI..which would indicate to me that the warm front is not going to lift bodily into SNE..what I also see is a trend for the first wave to deamplify on the models as we are getting closer..Where is the wound up storm that is going to blast the warm front into CNE? I guess that's my thought process. I do think we will go to a cold 33-34 rain or something like that..but most of the warming looks like it's aloft. I also read that the ENS had colder solution than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wake me up when your spring and warm rains happens on Wednesday..lol. Good luck to you !! It's too bad you sh*t all over the thread as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's too bad you sh*t all over the thread as usual. I am done with you dude. I've explained my thought process. I'll see how things look as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 There is no bagginess on the GFS that's for sure. Snow then rain. It's a pretty strong s/w ripping west on that model, but it does have some front end snow. It also clips SE MA with snow again with a follow up wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Don't think spring temps are even possible with this. GEFS max temps are upper 30s, EPS same, GEPS are toasty. With new snow cover to the SW, wicked cold sea temps it would be tough to significantly warm low levels like the Canadian shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Much will be determined by how intense the Sunday storm can get and the amount of induced bridging forms in Eastern Canada, right now model consensus is a front end snow transition to ice, rain then back to snow and rapid freeze , a very strong deep thermal boundary then sets up which will need to be monitored closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The 00z euro definitely is a more flatter and stretched out trough that is positively tilted at 500mb. A solution like that may struggle to warm north of the Pike. Unlike the SWFE we know that didn't want to warm, the high position is awful and would offer limited CAD in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Don't think spring temps are even possible with this. GEFS max temps are upper 30s, EPS same, GEPS are toasty. With new snow cover to the SW, wicked cold sea temps it would be tough to significantly warm low levels like the Canadian shows. Right..I mean how are you gonna torch into the 50's with frozen water to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The second wave follows up and is actually rain to snow from NW-SE verbatim. I'm sure that will change. Overall looks like decent confidence for a few inches in many spots to start. A euro solution would limit rain from the first scenario, but actually starts as rain in the second follow up low. Either way, looks messy and kind of ugly to me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Right..I mean how are you gonna torch into the 50's with frozen water to the south? A strong low would bring source region warmth with it. We've seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 The 00z euro definitely is a more flatter and stretched out trough that is positively tilted at 500mb. A solution like that may struggle to warm north of the Pike. Unlike the SWFE we know that didn't want to warm, the high position is awful and would offer limited CAD in this case.yea that's what I thought. Seems warming aloft is a given but I would not be surprised if no one hits 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 A strong low would bring source region warmth with it. We've seen it before.yes that certainly would be an option if there is a warm source area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 yes that certainly would be an option if there is a warm source area. It can rip it right off VA. Waters were in the 30s in many of our cutters of years before. I'm not saying this is the case, just saying why it can happen, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 yes that certainly would be an option if there is a warm source area. With the wave trending less amplified..I don't see that as a likely outcome. It's weakening each cycle and getting strung out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 With the wave trending less amplified..I don't see that as a likely outcome. It's weakening each cycle and getting strung out I'd like to see one or two more of these shifts weaker. It may get a little ugly south of the pike for a little while in the 40s or something like that, but verbatim after rain ends it seems. That would also allow any overrunning to start as less rain and more frozen. It was a better look with a flatter and strung out trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 It can rip it right off VA. Waters were in the 30s in many of our cutters of years before. I'm not saying this is the case, just saying why it can happen,definitely an option, pretty amazing how these cutters seem to slowly evolve into meh . Was the Euro last night the start of the evolution or just a burp?. Of all the cutter fails.seems this one has the best setup, well as of now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Despite being told by Maximillan Shell I have weenie goggles on that follow up wave, that's got legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Best case scenario would be six to eight tomorrow night then three or four to ice Tue wed with some cold rain then two or three more on follow up wave which would be an enormous net gain for many in the interior.... that would give me my pack fetish peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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