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Thumpidity Dumpity or SWFiter Rainer 3-4/3-5 storm


Ginx snewx

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With this inside 96 hours and coming quickly on the heals of the Sunday night system the added weight to roofs and potential urban flooding will be need to be monitored. The post fropa thermal contrast is very intense. Any small wave development will act on that contrast and will need to be watched. Some analogs are very juicy and Leonesque, (prolific overunning)

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Kevin, what exactly do you mean. Does the Euro show the warm front getting hung up?

I see some bagginess (not on the Euro) can't see that... that indicates to me a weak surface reflection off of LI..which would indicate to me that the warm front is not going to lift bodily into SNE..what I also see is a trend for the first wave to deamplify on the models as we are getting closer..Where is the wound up storm that is going to blast the warm front into CNE? I guess that's my thought process.

I do think we will go to a cold 33-34 rain or something like that..but most of the warming looks like it's aloft.

 

I also read that the ENS had colder solution than the op

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Much will be determined by how intense the Sunday storm can get and the amount of induced bridging forms in Eastern Canada, right now model consensus is a front end snow transition to ice, rain then back to snow and rapid freeze , a very strong deep thermal boundary then sets up which will need to be monitored closely

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Don't think spring temps are even possible with this. GEFS max temps are upper 30s, EPS same, GEPS are toasty. With new snow cover to the SW, wicked cold sea temps it would be tough to significantly warm low levels like the Canadian shows.

Right..I mean how are you gonna torch into the 50's with frozen water to the south?

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The second wave follows up and is actually rain to snow from NW-SE verbatim. I'm sure that will change.  Overall looks like decent confidence for a few inches in many spots to start. A euro solution would limit rain from the first scenario, but actually starts as rain in the second follow up low. Either way, looks messy and kind of ugly to me anyways.

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The 00z euro definitely is a more flatter and stretched out trough that is positively tilted at 500mb. A solution like that may struggle to warm north of the Pike. Unlike the SWFE we know that didn't want to warm, the high position is awful and would offer limited CAD in this case.

yea that's what I thought. Seems warming aloft is a given but I would not be surprised if no one hits 40
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With the wave trending less amplified..I don't see that as a likely outcome. It's weakening each cycle and getting strung out

 

I'd like to see one or two more of these shifts weaker. It may get a little ugly south of the pike for a little while in the 40s or something like that, but verbatim after rain ends it seems. That would also allow any overrunning to start as less rain and more frozen. It was a better look with a flatter and strung out trough.

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It can rip it right off VA. Waters were in the 30s in many of our cutters of years before. I'm not saying this is the case, just saying why it can happen,

definitely an option, pretty amazing how these cutters seem to slowly evolve into meh . Was the Euro last night the start of the evolution or just a burp?. Of all the cutter fails.seems this one has the best setup, well as of now....
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