Eastatlwx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The winter made its own name, now we are heading into meteorological spring in a few days. I will add pictures and explanation when I get home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 NWS GSP says the following which to my non-expert eye looks promising for spring weather: AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURINGTHE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJORWESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITHA FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY7. However, folks in the winter pattern thread are suggesting a cold March; don't know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Hopefully, any rumors of early spring are greatly exaggerated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Hopefully, any rumors of early spring are greatly exaggerated! Here, here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's only going to be about a week thaw, then back to more busting winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Can some one please explain to me this type of map the number lines. It is the 6z GFS 850mb T + PSML. I'm i reading it correctly that there will be strong storms across the south east? http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfs&run_time=06z¶m=850mbTSLP&map=NA&run_hour=141 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's only going to be about a week thaw, then back to more busting winter storms What leans you toward this thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is good.... a May thread in February. I'm over winter... I should already have cabbage and broccoli planted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Contrary to last year, the SST in the gulf are not below average however this may change as we progess through the season, the current tends to float around obviously like other ocean currents. This above anomaly if persisent will increase the moisture available from the gulf fueling thunderstorms, in the short to medium range we will have a sneak peek at spring temperature wise and hopefully precipitation wise pt.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Here is the CIPS analog based off the 00z GFS for forecast hour 120 (the 12z will be coming out soon): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Here is the CIPS analog based off the 00z GFS for forecast hour 120 (the 12z will be coming out soon): Shawn what does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Shawn what does this mean? Well, in my opinion not much. Just throwing what kind of severe outbreak out there for what could be possible. There are too many model differences and the setup even on the GFS isn't very good for a true severe outbreak at this point. Just wanted to put it out there IN CASE something changes. Dr. Forbes has this to say about it: A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in south AL, southeast MS, southeast LA, GA, western SC. TOR:CON - less than 2, with damaging gusts the main threat. Computer models differ and the upper trough has positive tilt, reducing confidence and possibly holding down the threat relative to yesterday's forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Robert says don't get out your sandals just yet, once we get by this little warm spell next week there is a couple of those big arctic highs coming down and a couple of storms out of the gulf along with it. so man your battle stations fellows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is good.... a May thread in February. I'm over winter... I should already have cabbage and broccoli planted out. I just purchased some seeds from Victory Seeds (first time using them? Wondering if anyone has experience with their products?) My family think that I'm crazy doing it so soon and believe I have sealed the deal for one more Arctic and possibly Wintry storm in doing so around this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I just purchased some seeds from Victory Seeds (first time using them? Wondering if anyone has experience with their products?) My family think that I'm crazy doing it so soon and believe I have sealed the deal for one more Arctic and possibly Wintry storm in doing so around this area. I have used Victory Seeds with great success. I bought my seeds from Southern Exposure Seed Exchange back in early January just to make sure I go the hard to find ones while still in stock. They keep forever so why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Lows will ride along the southeast ridge deflecting them towards the lakes which draw up gulf moisture and warm air advection into our region, however there is going to be cold air damming stuck in place initially because confluence in the short range, as storms ride along the boundary we will receive plentiful rain, however this looks to be a short term warm up and cold should spread eastward in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 LOL, the big warm up talked about below produces above normal high temps for this area for a total of one day in the 7 day forecast; 6 days below normal high temps; however, it would be largely above normal for mid January: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TOREVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WETREGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONGTHE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPSWITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILLREBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLDFRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVYRAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER ISANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPERTROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 LOL, the big warm up talked about below produces above normal high temps for this area for a total of one day in the 7 day forecast; 6 days below normal high temps; however, it would be largely above normal for mid January: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. and it's in association with alot of rain. I don't know about you but 50's and 60's with sun sure would feel great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 What leans you toward this thought?JB said so. 14th - end of the month, says dont get the sandals out just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 and it's in association with alot of rain. I don't know about you but 50's and 60's with sun sure would feel great. I would like that as well but it is looking like the third consecutive spring with a persistent east coast trough with just an occasional brief shift in the pattern. Rain wise the current 7-day forecast looks typical for a February during a strong El Nino year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Beautiful day so March forward to Wednesday, another sneak peek of spring like temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Wow! I'm sorry, Eastatlwx, but I couldn't make heads or tails of all those screen grabs you posted above. I suppose they were five different types of images of the same storm, but where are they located? Was this a current image when you posted? Were we all in danger? Should I take cover now? I am still alive? Context, man. Context. And why are these images posted in this thread as opposed to the March Observations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 I'm sorry, Eastatlwx, but I couldn't make heads or tails of all those screen grabs you posted above. I suppose they were five different types of images of the same storm, but where are they located? Was this a current image when you posted? Were we all in danger? Should I take cover now? I am still alive? Context, man. Context. And why are these images posted in this thread as opposed to the March Observations? sorry man, it was the supercell in eastern North Carolina today, I forgot to put on the cities and towns, I look forward to posting more when severe weather arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 sorry man, it was the supercell in eastern North Carolina today, I forgot to put on the cities and towns, I look forward to posting more when severe weather arrives. Just giving you a hard time. I look forward to more contextualized severe weather posts from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Well written article from Michael Ventrice on the current El Nino - http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/evidence-that-the-atmospheric-oceanic-system-is-evolving-towards-a-strong-el-nino/ "BOTTOM LINE: Amplification of the current El Nino event is anticipated this Spring. We suspect that this year’s El Nino event will likely be stronger than last years event. This suggests the upcoming summer will feature another active tropical cyclone season over the West Pacific and Eastern Pacific. Like what was observed last year and written in a number of blogs (example), strong West Pacific typhoons can impact circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that results in downstream impacts across the U.S. that often generates colder than average temperatures. Further as the current set up stands today, the Atlantic Hurricane Season is looking like to be another dud. More details to come in the official Hurricane and U.S. Summer outlooks." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 man the last few days were so nice... no we go back into a crap patter for chilly weather.... over the cold bring on more warm weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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