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March to Spring 2015? Models/Forecasts for March in the Valley.


John1122

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Looks like "real" spring arrives this upcoming week.  And next weekend appears interesting. 

 

 

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST...WE WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED HERE IN THE EAST...AS SW FLOW COMES OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF INTO THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SEEM TO STRUGGLE TO
REFINE SUCH A SCENARIO...SO POPS ARE INCLUDED RATHER
INDISCRIMINATELY BECAUSE DISTURBANCES THAT SET OFF CONVECTIVE
ROUNDS WILL BE HARD TO ISOLATE BEYOND A FEW DAYS. BUT THE SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE BEACHY FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS S/SW
SURFACE WINDS TAP THE GULF. ITS QUITE A WAYS OFF...BUT THE NEW DAY
7...NEXT SATURDAY...MAY BE INTERESTING AS THE NEW ECMWF JOINS THE
GFS BY FORESEEING A WET DAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE TAP.

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Looks like "real" spring arrives this upcoming week.  And next weekend appears interesting. 

Tuesday the capes are 1.5k,slight cap though.EHI IS 3.0 in the afternoon though but pw's look blah in Mid Tn.Severe threat looks be in the plains east of the dry line,OV and maybe the Ozarks?.But like you said we are fixing to see a unsettled pattern coming up

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