Quincy Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Today's models continue to show a strong signal for the continuation of winter-like conditions through the end of March: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 18z gins up some heavy, wet snow for the area next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 The 18z gfs is showing a nice cold shot next Friday night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Here it is Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Looks like we could see some flurries next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Looks like we could see some flurries next weekend. From OHX this afternoon ON FRIDAY...THE GFS STILL LOOKS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER 850MB TEMPS AND BACKSIDE PRECIP BUT HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. THE ECMWF HAS GOTTEN A BIT COLDER...SO BOTH MODELS NOW HAVE BELOW 0C 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING OR SO. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOW AROUND 30 TO 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...SO DONT HAVE MENTION OF SNOW JUST YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 From OHX this afternoon ON FRIDAY...THE GFS STILL LOOKS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER 850MB TEMPS AND BACKSIDE PRECIP BUT HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. THE ECMWF HAS GOTTEN A BIT COLDER...SO BOTH MODELS NOW HAVE BELOW 0C 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING OR SO. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOW AROUND 30 TO 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...SO DONT HAVE MENTION OF SNOW JUST YET. I'm not getting my hopes up but it's nice to have the possibility of snow flurries this late in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 At least the cool March has kept most of the trees dormant, so far. A pretty hard freeze looks likely with the next cold shot over the coming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 CLIMATE...THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST FREEZE IN THE SPRING INNASHVILLE IS APRIL 6TH. THE LATEST LAST FREEZE DATE ON RECORD ISAPRIL 25TH 1910. HERE`S A LIST OF THE RECENT LAST-FREEZE DATES IN NASHVILLE: 2014:APRIL16TH (31 DEGREES)2013:MARCH 27TH (28)2012:MARCH 6TH (31)2011:MARCH 25TH (31)2010:MARCH 7TH (26)2009:MARCH 21ST (30)2008:APRIL 15TH (31)2007:APRIL 10TH (32) Saw this on the Nashville disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 CLIMATE...THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST FREEZE IN THE SPRING IN NASHVILLE IS APRIL 6TH. THE LATEST LAST FREEZE DATE ON RECORD IS APRIL 25TH 1910. HERE`S A LIST OF THE RECENT LAST-FREEZE DATES IN NASHVILLE: 2014:APRIL16TH (31 DEGREES) 2013:MARCH 27TH (28) 2012:MARCH 6TH (31) 2011:MARCH 25TH (31) 2010:MARCH 7TH (26) 2009:MARCH 21ST (30) 2008:APRIL 15TH (31) 2007:APRIL 10TH (32) Saw this on the Nashville disco Interesting to see 4/25/1910 as Nashville's latest freeze on record. That is the exact same last freeze way down in Atlanta, too! ATL and much of the SE had a freak accumulating snow that day with over 1" at ATL and 4" at Marietta, GA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Interesting to see 4/25/1910 as Nashville's latest freeze on record. That is the exact same last freeze way down in Atlanta, too! ATL and much of the SE had a freak accumulating snow that day with over 1" at ATL and 4" at Marietta, GA! That was the latest freeze for Memphis also,with the latest sn fall on record http://www.memphisweather.net/alltime-records.shtml April 25 1910- Temperature at Nashville drops to 32 -- the latest freeze ever. Snowfall measuring 1½" also represents the greatest one-day snowfall for April, and is the latest date for measureable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 12z gfs snow and temps Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 I should say that snow map is not all snow.I'm not sure if I am allowed to post the ones from paid sites that show snow,ice and zr.It says in the rules not to but I have seen them posted so maybe someone could fill me in on that as I would like to post them if I am allowed to. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I noticed heading home from work rather large, building cumulus clouds over the mountains. First time I've seen that this year. Not building high enough for a storm, but gets me in the mood to see a real thunderhead soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 One heck of a stationary/warm front across Kentucky today. It's 70 in London in the southeast part of the state, while 45 miles to the north in Richmond, its only 48! Better take two sets of clothing if traveling across the front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 MRX now has most of east Tennessee dropping well into the 20's in the coming cold snap. Not surprised--with mostly clear skies expected on Saturday into Saturday night. At least the trees aren't leafed out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Some trees are starting to bud. Hopefully this weekend won't deter much acorn production. If you've got some early seedlings coming up, better cover them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I've not had time to look beyond about 7 days lately on the models, how is April looking on the weeklies and CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I've not had time to look beyond about 7 days lately on the models, how is April looking on the weeklies and CFS? The weeklies today look like the Valley is done with the freeze after this last freeze with maybe the exception would be up in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 I Went to dinner in Hendersonville with the wife and snow flakes were flying with a temp of 40 degrees.The air must be real cold aloft.Back here in White House it's 36 but no moisture left.Bring on spring I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Unsettled is the weather word for this week. Rains chances abound but nothing too heavy it appears. At least down into the southern TN valley and into north GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Unsettled is the weather word for this week. Rains chances abound but nothing too heavy it appears. At least down into the southern TN valley and into north GA. I'm watching the models closely as we're hoping to get a three night camping trip in later this week. The rain seems to be trending towards a shorter duration event, right now it looks like a mainly Friday night deal whereas before it was an all day and night 2 inch soaker. Fingers crossed we can salvage a decent trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 April 11 on the CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 cfs.png April 11 on the CFS That is some serious gas, is there a match to ignite that cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Looks like some thunderstorms later this week with a marginal risk of severe weather for middle Tennessee.I am ready as I haven't heard any thunder since last September. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 From MRX: LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTSEAST WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SHORT WAVEMOVES EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATINGSUFFICIENT FOR LOW END INSTABILITY AND AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. LOWAMPLIFIES JET SEGMENT AT BOTTOM OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTTHROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOODLIFT AND MODERATE LAYER SHEAR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREAFRIDAY EVENING. ONGOING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVETHROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AGOOD BET WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIR MASSBUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. GRADUALWARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO SLOWLYINCREASE INTO THE MID WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/NERN OK EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE SERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS CONUS WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO BUT A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWD ACROSS LOWER MI...IL AND MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT ARE FORECAST TO STALL AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN MO. TO THE W...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE DAY WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER SRN CO BY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS KS/OK AND INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR BY 12Z FRI AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER SRN MO. AHEAD OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S F WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH 60S AS FAR N AS SRN KS INTO SRN INDIANA. THIS WILL CREATE A LARGE AREA OF INSTABILITY BENEATH AMPLE SHEAR PROFILES WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MID MS INTO THE OH VALLEY... SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE DECELERATING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE ACROSS IL AND MO WITH SOME MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT ONGOING. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TO THE E OVER ACROSS SRN IL...INDIANA...WRN KY AND SERN MO. A REJUVENATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. ...FAR SERN KS...NERN OK...SRN MO AND NRN AR OVERNIGHT... STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE ADVECTION/PRODUCTION OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS INTO ERN OK...AR...AND SRN MO DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND SOME HIGH BASED AND/OR ELEVATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER KS AND CONTINUE EWD N OF THE SFC LOW. AS THIS ENHANCED AREA OF FORCING INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONT OVER SERN KS/NERN OK/SRN MO...AN ERUPTION OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES. PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH TORNADO THREAT DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE STABILITY OF THE SURFACE AIR. ...FL...GA...NRN AL... A WEAK SRN-STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT FL WITHIN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY AND BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COOL...NEAR -15 C OVER NRN FL. THIS WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF WEAK SELY SURFACE WINDS AND WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW VIGOROUS CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ...NRN TX... A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER N TX DURING THE DAY WITH DRYLINE MIXING EWD TO JUST W OF I-35. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR IN THIS ZONE AND CIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGLIGIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO HELP ONE OR TWO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY AREA SWWD ACROSS NRN MS/NWRN AR/SERN AR/NERN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWWD INTO E TX... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX... ...SUMMARY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS FRIDAY; SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO TEXAS. ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE A GULF OF AK UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SSEWD ALONG THE BC COAST AND BEGINS AFFECTING THE PAC NW...A SECOND TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA DAY 2/FRI./ AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO OK/TX IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE TN/MID AND LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS WITH TIME. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A DEEPENING LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. ...MID OH/TN VALLEYS SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/SABINE VALLEYS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE OZARKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SOME LINGERING SEVERE RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OZARKS AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SOME HEATING OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD FUEL EVENTUAL/VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY WITHIN A ZONE ROUGHLY FROM WRN KY SWWD TO NRN LA. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN WEAKLY VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THOUGH TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR EVENT WILL SUPPORT ONGOING DAMAGING WIND RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH HEATING MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND THUS INSTABILITY LIKELY WEAKER...LOWER/LESS WIDESPREAD RISK FOR HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE ACROSS SERN/S TX...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY -- WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF THIS REGION AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR CAPPING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THUS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. STILL...CAPE/SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK WITH ANY CELL WHICH COULD BECOME EVOLVE ACROSS THIS AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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