Mr Bob Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Ensemble means from both the GFS and Euro continue to show the rebuilding of the Alaska ridge in the Day 10-12 time frame...so after a long week of cloudy and rain we look to head back into a colder regime as Carver said above by the time we get to the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 maybe even a couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The ground has not yet dried out. It is still saturated in most places. There is still standing water ponds from all the snow melt and rain last week in low points and sinks. Though we've had several days without any significant precipitation, the weather has been cool and most days have been cloudy. Three-to-five inches of rain this week is going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 0z GFS....+PNA and -AO pattern in the 10-15 day, even earlier that. Cold valley rains and mtn snows at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 The ground was so cold, the last of my snow didn't melt off until this morning. Now the creeks are full and if the heavy rain manages to set in for days, flooding will once again become a major issue. We already had major flooding last week. The county road budget is underwater both literally and metaphorically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 The GFS has an interesting look around the 18th-19th. LP in the GOM, cold lurking near the area. Keeps it suppressed, but when hasn't it kept a storm suppressed this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The eps is just amazing. Why couldn't we get that blocking last month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The eps is just amazing. Why couldn't we get that blocking last month The control shows 2-4 on TRI around day 15. Also Snowshoe WV gets a foot. Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Not much rain from this system so far which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Confidence is building in a return to a colder than normal pattern the back half of March, esp last third of the month. Convection in MJO phase 7 is accompanied by excellent divergence at 200 mb. It should eject a Kelvin wave to help pump up that AK ridge. Models also hinting at some Atlantic side blocking. In addition the Kelvin wave should promote an active jet stream off the Pacific. Looks like spring and severe season are delayed again, kind of like a connection from ATL back to CHA in the late evening, lol. Could it mean late season snow? If so I figure a field trip to the mountains would be required to see snow. Cheers! EDIT next day: Models punted the cold probably due to struggles with a TS in the West Pac. I favor the bigger influence of the MJO pulse, but they are in opposition. Oh well. If we can at least get some sun from northwest flow I'll be okay with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 12z Euro and GFS seems to drop a trough and energy(placement of which is different) into the eastern US around 3/21. Teleconnections have favored this time frame for a while. Might be worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 12z Euro and GFS seems to drop a trough and energy(placement of which is different) into the eastern US around 3/21. Teleconnections have favored this time frame for a while. Might be worth watching. -AO/EPO with a +PNA..who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 He likes the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Euro is fairly quick moving the MJO,faster than any other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 JB is honking at 2011 dejavu again towards mid April.Trough digging down somewhere around the Rockies on the weeklies with heights rising into the lower MS/V,OH/V,TN/V around the 13th,guess we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 JB is honking at 2011 dejavu again towards mid April.Trough digging down somewhere around the Rockies on the weeklies with heights rising into the lower MS/V,OH/V,TN/V around the 13th,guess we'll see So was that year a bad year for severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 JB is honking at 2011 dejavu again towards mid April.Trough digging down somewhere around the Rockies on the weeklies with heights rising into the lower MS/V,OH/V,TN/V around the 13th,guess we'll see He is not honking a 2011 repeat, he is just saying pattern progression appears to be a bit like that. You need a lot of things to come together to have a month that even vaguely resembles April 2011. I for one am intrigued by any suggestion of an active severe pattern from him, since he usually goes cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 He is not honking a 2011 repeat, he is just saying pattern progression appears to be a bit like that. You need a lot of things to come together to have a month that even vaguely resembles April 2011. I for one am intrigued by any suggestion of an active severe pattern from him, since he usually goes cold. Should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 So was that year a bad year for severe weather? 2011 was killer outbreak http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_25%E2%80%9328,_2011_tornado_outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 He is just trying to sell subscriptions. Perhaps April will come in opposite of guidance. However the rest of March is not trending well. All I see is a march of closed lows lumbering across the South. Open waves are better for severe. So it looks like we can punt storm chasing for a while and concentrate on the NCAA basketball tournaments! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 He is just trying to sell subscriptions. Perhaps April will come in opposite of guidance. However the rest of March is not trending well. All I see is a march of closed lows lumbering across the South. Open waves are better for severe. So it looks like we can punt storm chasing for a while and concentrate on the NCAA basketball tournaments! I think if he was trying to sell subscriptions he would do this for every spring or at least more often than he does concerning severe weather *cough* accuweather *cough*. I do agree that it is a long way out to be calling for a set period of above avg severe potential, but this year had been so quiet so far that there isn't much else to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 17, 2015 Author Share Posted March 17, 2015 GFS is cooking up something around the 25th. Potentially heavy rain/mountain snow with some snow for most everyone, long way out though. Lots of storms and cold shots coming through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 JB is pulling the 2011 comparison from nothing. The Euro weeklies and his best buddy, the CFS, show no central trough whatsoever. If anything, the CFS brings back troughing over the Great Lakes/Northeast by the end of April. The weeklies are relatively zonal, with actually modest height anomalies for mid to late April over the TN Valley and surrounding area. The data seems to favor somewhat of an increase in severe activity by the end of April, but that isn't far from climo anyway. 2010 and 2014 are far better analogs thus far than 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 JB is pulling the 2011 comparison from nothing. The Euro weeklies and his best buddy, the CFS, show no central trough whatsoever. If anything, the CFS brings back troughing over the Great Lakes/Northeast by the end of April. The weeklies are relatively zonal, with actually modest height anomalies for mid to late April over the TN Valley and surrounding area. The data seems to favor somewhat of an increase in severe activity by the end of April, but that isn't far from climo anyway. 2010 and 2014 are far better analogs thus far than 2011. Agree. Thanks for your input in the SE forum. It is much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS is cooking up something around the 25th. Potentially heavy rain/mountain snow with some snow for most everyone, long way out though. Lots of storms and cold shots coming through the end of the month. I had a feeling Old Man Winter wasn't done with us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS is cooking up something around the 25th. Potentially heavy rain/mountain snow with some snow for most everyone, long way out though. Lots of storms and cold shots coming through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Quite a different look from the new Euro around the time frame mentioned by John and Stove.The para wants to dump about 1.5" of rn. give or take for the whole Valley.with DP's 60 and some cape around 300-500.Ridge out in the Atlantic is further S which slows the progression down on the Para then it's followed by some cold air again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ Wow, thanks for posting that. Lots of data to chew on right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 From the Southeast thread: Winter does not want to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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