John1122 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Models are getting to be pretty insistent on an Apps runner happening the first week of March, the 00z GFS just levels the western 2/3rd of Tennessee with heavy snow and really buries Nashville. This has been showing up quite a few runs in a row now on both the GFS and GEM. The GEM looks like it has an icy solution on it's current run. GFS snowfall on top. GEM precip/radar on bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 GFS plunges some serious, serious cold air in behind this system. Has lows in the single digits and highs struggling to get out of the 10s and lower 20s for March 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The 0z Euro cuts that one through west TN and keeps the cold air out of reach. It's ensemble mean and control look similar. There are several members (12 or so out of 51) that do manage to lay down 2+ inches from Nashville to Knoxville during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Finally seeing an east side app runner on the GFS.Looks like a warm front lifts N and becomes stationary for a brief time then retreats back as a cold front followed by another reinforcing cold front on it's heels.Not much difference on the 5H,just the Euro is slower with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS Fantasy for March 5th: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Don't look now, but the threat of a stalled front just southeast of here, with a wave and a LOT of moisture returning into the cold is there on the GFS today. The snow has pretty much fallen by hour 138, but it expands south and east as shown on the 156 map. Interesting, but certainly not biting at this point. Edited to remove the map posted by Stovepipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ha! That was a simul-post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yeah HP to NW is further SE,doesn't allow it to cut,another hit for CHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 TRI .68 CHA...39..this is frozen...bna 2.08 all rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GGEM for the storm next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 0z Ukie at hour 144 (the end of it's range): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Uhhhh, the threat is also on the Euro, especially for west Tn through he 138 (6+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Uhhhh, the threat is also on the Euro, especially for west Tn through he 138 (6+) Lawdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I am probably more worried about flooding issues coming. With the ground as saturated as it is and projections of 2-3 inches of qpf coming, we might need our mud boots till June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Lawdy The Euro has been in full troll mode for Nashville all winter. Make it stop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro sure got colder.I shouldn't get excited (but i am..lol)i'm only setting my self up for a let down.2 degrees when you wake up next Fri for BNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro sure got colder.I shouldn't get excited (but i am..lol)i'm only setting my self up for a let down.2 degrees when you wake up next Fri for KBNA We were already -4 with this last system but would be nice for a good old fashioned TN snow before Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro control fully on board next week, mean at 12z is around 2 inches for most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The 12z Ukie doesn't have the cold air close enough for this one and keeps the snow well to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The 12z Ukie doesn't have the cold air close enough for this one and keeps the snow well to the north and west. Matches the GEM. So we have the GEM/UKIE against the Euro/GFS. In past years, I'd take my chances with that, but the Euro has been so bad this year at this range and the GFS, well, nevermind. Will be interesting to see which direction this goes. I would lean toward something wintry for areas north and west of the TN Valley and mid south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Matches the GEM. So we have the GEM/UKIE against the Euro/GFS. In past years, I'd take my chances with that, but the Euro has been so bad this year at this range and the GFS, well, nevermind. Will be interesting to see which direction this goes. I would lean toward something wintry for areas north and west of the TN Valley and mid south. We'll have to see if any consistency emerges over the weekend. The 0z run of the Ukie which was just barely getting in range at 144, looked pretty good, significant wobble at 12z That was also a decent shift on the Euro, who knows how it'll flip around over the next few runs. Maybe in a couple of days the models will have sniffed out the range of possibilities. It's amazing to me that we even have another system to keep an eye on so soon after the latest shenanigans. If this settles into a middle TN threat I vote to name the thread "The Jax Jackhammer" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 .51 frozen BNA,some zr and IP at the start,will have to wait for ratios off the 18z soon as everything loads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 .51 frozen BNA,some zr and IP at the start,will have to wait for ratios off the 18z soon as everything loads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The GGEM has a straight sleet storm for the western part of tenn and has ZR deep into alabama so while it's not snow it is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GFS is a major ice storm for hsv..winds around 10-11kts..temps dropping into the single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 i'm not posting any text this far out but if you want yours feel free and ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Tupelo .89" IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Tupelo .89" IP So Nashville just snow in all this or is it to go South of us yet again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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