Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

End of the snowpack predictions?


marsplex

Recommended Posts

Here is a pic i took today of the Mills Pond in Stony Brook

 

11034893_460168384130574_674344004934681

 

Nice pic!

 

March 1 is kind of a magic number for accelerating the melting of snowpack around here.  That being said, there is still a solid 12" pack here and based on the model indications, if we can avoid a complete torch / drenching the middle of next week, this has a good chance of standing up another couple of weeks.

 

There are too many complaints in this forum that the snowcover serves no purpose because it turns black in the city or other silly reasons.  It does matter to me because I go out cross country skiing every chance I get (which is basically weekends).  Conditions this past Sunday were quite good late in the day once the mixed precip had started to freeze up.  I may have to play a little hooky part of Monday if we get the fresh snow Sunday night. 

 

I was rather hoping we'd get a fresh covering yesterday or today, but that didn't work out.  There is a great base out there, so any fresh snow makes for excellent conditions.  I've got metal edged BC skis (not randonee or telemark, but with a good edge) and can hold an edge when I need to so a little hard snow isn't a problem...plus it is much faster / glides better. 

 

The snow will be gone on the coastal plain long before April no matter what happens, so in the mean time what's the rush?  Ain't no one planting tomatoes yet no matter how warm March gets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^^Funny you mention tomatoes, as I planted one yesterday (indoors of course), it'll go outside in a few weeks.

I'm not sure how long the snowpack will last, I don't see it going into the second half of March, no matter how cold it is. I'm noticing less and less snow everyday, whether it's below freezing or not. I want it gone asap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^^Funny you mention tomatoes, as I planted one yesterday (indoors of course), it'll go outside in a few weeks.

I'm not sure how long the snowpack will last, I don't see it going into the second half of March, no matter how cold it is. I'm noticing less and less snow everyday, whether it's below freezing or not. I want it gone asap.

 

So selfish ;)

 

You have a good shot at getting rid of it next Wednesday.  I don't think it will be gone yet on the north shore that soon, but having snow cover last past mid March on LI is darned near impossible...unless it keeps snowing every couple of days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A hit? It will be gone.

Not here in my area. Stony Brook, Lake Grove, and the areas to the north east / west here on long island seem have its own unique weather. Its seriously different here, i have spots on my lawn over 12" still. Its going to need 2 days of rain and temps in the upper 40's - 50's to really knock the snow out. Mid march for sure is my date. I hope im wrong tho and it is sooner. Its hard working out side this winter. No more snow on the ground would be a huge plus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Which is basically what next week will bring. Possibly up to 2" with temps in the 50s.

We will see, I'm not convinced yet since the trend has been South and weaker all Winter but if the front stalls in the right place then there could definitely be a rapid melt and related hydro concerns.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If nothing else, the commentary in this thread highlights that there is a range of snowdepths and SWEs across the region.  Some towns could melt out with a sunny 40 degree day and some are going to take a lot more than that.

 

Areas in NJ that made up some ground with fluffy jackpots over the past couple of weeks have lost most of that now, while here snowdepth has barely fluctuated more than a couple of inches up and down since late January, except that there is now a lot more water in the pack.  12" still here, and I see 17" still reported in Carmel, which is nothing to sneeze at.  Snow cover has gotten pretty sparse along the south shore towards the west end of the island.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not here in my area. Stony Brook, Lake Grove, and the areas to the north east / west here on long island seem have its own unique weather. Its seriously different here, i have spots on my lawn over 12" still.

 

I  have to agree with this...the Mt Sinai / Port Jeff area...really the whole area from Rocky Point to Upper Brookville in Nassau County...sees the snow melt off slowly...the fact that the area is hilly...with so many north facing hills providing the needed protection from the sun...in conjunction with the wooded landscape...slow the melting of the snow.  The cover has now been continuous here for 35 days...I think it will last for a total of about 60...so bare ground by about March 25th. The snowpack here is really more glacier than snowpack; this will also slow the melting process...and I think March will be reasonably cold with some more snow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we make it through the next week with a net gain. At least in the south shore where we were down to about 4" on average.

You are not losing anything, 3-4 inches of snow followed by ZR and 33 and drizzle Wednesday will not take anything away. I was hoping we'd keep it through 3/31, but starting to think only a 20 percent chance of pulling that off. I don't think we can stay below 40 for the next 30 days with the sun strengthening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is 12-18" here in Dobbs Ferry's wooded areas at decent elevations. I think it makes it through the first warm-up next week, especially in the north-facing slopes at 350'-400', but then the next warm-up before the cold arrives around the Equinox will kill it. The death of a great friend. 

 

It shall return, as sure as the budding trees of Spring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...