ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 6z data continues the colder solution for NW Chester County PA here is the rundown Light snow by 10am temp 17.6 Heavy Snow by 4pm temp 27.4 (1.5" of snow) Heavy Snow at 7pm temp 26.0 (3.3" of snow) IP/Snow at 10pm temp 26.1 (4.2" snow/IP) IP/ZR at 1am temp 27.1 4am tapers off to ZR- temp 27.7 Total liquid that falls is 0.57" all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z NAM looks colder at the surface for most and juicier. Could be quite the late season ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Doesn't it feel like this storm isn't getting the hype that it should? The ground is rock solid, and the 12z NAM surface looks damn cold. I hope they prepare the public on this one, especially if the NAM is right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Doesn't it feel like this storm isn't getting the hype that it should? The ground is rock solid, and the 12z NAM surface looks damn cold. I hope they prepare the public on this one, especially if the NAM is right... It's the weekend. People aren't paying attention and doing other things. And the local news (3,6,10) have way less hours for people to view. Hype may set in later Sun. As for myself, it'll be March and storms won't last so it's not as impressive plus we'll hit the 50's wed. Bright as hell out now w/birds chirping and my 21F current temp feels like 35-40F w/the rays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 RGEM and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM is .45 ZR at KPHL - verbatim that would be the highest impact storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 For the higher terrain portions a breakdown: NAM - 6" RGEM - 4" GFS - 2.5" ECM - 2" Extrapolating winter trends with lowest snowfall model outputs verifying I like 2-2.5" so a 1-3" forecast feels about right locally Then of course there is the inherent unpredictability of SWFE - see last event. So we can't right off 3-6" for near Philly and east of I95 either * Someway, somehow Monmouth County will get 4+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 For the higher terrain portions a breakdown: NAM - 6" RGEM - 4" GFS - 2.5" ECM - 2" Extrapolating winter trends with lowest snowfall model outputs verifying I like 2-2.5" so a 1-3" forecast feels about right locally Then of course there is the inherent unpredictability of SWFE - see last event. So we can't right off 3-6" for near Philly and east of I95 either * Someway, somehow Monmouth County will get 4+" Monmouth approves this statement. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z ECM has slightly increased snow amounts by moving the 3" line into extreme northeast Bucks so a 20 mile move south, other than that the same as 0z Now in line with the GFS with 2.5" locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS and GGEM from meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Details on EC QPF/snow vs. non: MPO 0.43" total QPF, 0.40" as snow, low levels try to warm up after 6Z. ABE 0.42" total QPF, 0.38" as snow, low levels try to warm up after 6Z. RDG 0.39" total QPF, 0.31" as snow, 925 warms from -1 to +1 between 0Z and 6Z. TTN 0.40" total QPF, 0.23" as snow, 900 warms from 0 to +1 and 925 warms from -1 to +2 between 0Z and 6Z. PHL 0.40" total QPF, 0.16" as snow, 925 warms from -5 to +1 between 18Z and 0Z. ILG 0.38" total QPF, 0.15" as snow, 925 warms from -5 to +2 between 18Z and 0Z. ACY 0.37" total QPF, 0.03" as snow, 925 warms from -4 to +2 between 18Z and 0Z. GED 0.27" total QPF, 0.02" as snow, 925 warms from -2 to +4 between 18Z and 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z run of the Wxsim with NAM/GFS combo continues colder and a bit drier and a quicker end time.... but now all snow and a snow/IP mix near the end. with 4" to 5" of snow accumulation before ending by 10pm. After the Tuesday-Wed AM snow to rain event the Wxsim shows another 2" to 4" snow event on Thursday PM with falling temps thru the day. This is the one JB has been keying on to watch out for after the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Due to lack of GOMEX moisture and the transition to "wintery mix", I'll go for 1-2 inches in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 WWAdvidsory posted here as of 3:19pm...10am Sun - 4am Mon....1 - 4" snow followed by 1 - 2 tenth ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Im going 2-4" Warminster, leaning lower end of that range attm. Sleet by 7PM and fzra shortly thereafter with ~.10 accretion. Thats how I see it playing out based on a few similar setups we had this year and what guidance is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Mt. Holly map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Well bus company sill a go tomorrow for our ski trip so at least we get fresh snow all afternoon. Might be an interesting ride home. Thanks all for your updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 0z NAM is a solid 2-4" front-end thump to ice storm north of the city. Surface temps only get above freezing after meaningful precip is gone N/W of 95. It looks like at least close to .4" QPF falls at freezing rain, which would be a major issue, especially for northern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Heavier zr would lead to less efficent accumulations of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 0z NAM is a solid 2-4" front-end thump to ice storm north of the city. Surface temps only get above freezing after meaningful precip is gone N/W of 95. It looks like at least close to .4" QPF falls at freezing rain, which would be a major issue, especially for northern burbs. nice thump in the far north of mt holly zone. hoping for 4 inches , need 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Heavier zr would lead to less efficent accumulations of ice. ground is ice cold. how concerned is the team with the ice storm for areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 ground is ice cold. how concerned is the team with the ice storm for areasWasn't in work today, yesterday concern was elevated for the freezing rain threat. I like where our map shows the potential for up to 1/4 ice. Travel conditions will go downhill quick once the changover occurs to ice, very slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Heavier zr would lead to less efficent accumulations of ice. last sat/sun storm showed this....not much ice on trees/lines but roads got slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Wasn't in work today, yesterday concern was elevated for the freezing rain threat. I like where our map shows the potential for up to 1/4 ice. Travel conditions will go downhill quick once the changover occurs to ice, very slippery. Hey Mitchell I am thinking the thermal radiation off a March 1st sun angle even through the clouds could help between 11AM and 2:30PM or so in SE PA I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hey Mitchell I am thinking the thermal radiation off a March 1st sun angle even through the clouds could help between 11AM and 2:30PM or so in SE PA I would think. it's been so cold for so long, I suspect any liquid that falls is frozen on the ground. ground temps are still very cold even with the sun angle etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hey Mitchell I am thinking the thermal radiation off a March 1st sun angle even through the clouds could help between 11AM and 2:30PM or so in SE PA I would think. I think PHL might not changeover til after that. BTW, this time of year peak solar insolation is centered on noon. In summer its centered on 1PM because of DST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That radar right now looks eerily similar to last week just further north ... a fire hose of moisture with no organized storm going over the top of the cold high pressure dome.... should be an interesting day tomorrow to see who wins and who gets screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hey Mitchell I am thinking the thermal radiation off a March 1st sun angle even through the clouds could help between 11AM and 2:30PM or so in SE PA I would think. I'm hoping it will be snowing here during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Down this way I'm thinking 1" to 2" (of snow). More would be better, obviously, and could mean less freezing rain. It looks like the potential is there for the surface to stay more than a degree or two below freezing even after a change to rain, and however hard it comes down, a longer duration rain at 28F-30F is what in my mind would lead to potential issues with branches and power lines etc. The roads will be icy no matter what the precipitation type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 15F here now. Nice radiational cooling night so far. 2/3 full moon making nice tree shadows on the snow. I'm wondering how many hours of virga we'll be seeing tomorrow before it starts reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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