famartin Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 As requested.... weak disturbance taps some Gulf moisture. Temp profiles uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Certainly potential is there for some snow/sleet following by ZR or freezing drizzle - especially north of Philly. IMBY, could be a slightly less QPF version of this past Saturday afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chester County has a brief period of IP/Snow changing to ZR pretty quickly and then the struggle to get the surface above 0c....unfortunately it does not manage to do so till 8am on Monday morning by which time 0.75" of w.e. has fallen. Also of interest in forecasts my snow cover to be all gone by Wednesday - today is the 36th consecutive day of snow depth greater than 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This has the potential to be a pretty decent icing event N and W of the city. CAD signature showing up on all of the models. .25-.5 of mostly frz rain would not be good. GFS much warmer than the NAM right now and has a decent amount of plain rain as well at least for the majority of SE PA. Personally I think the cold air is most likely being underestimated as the theme of the season is weak and east-west. think we'll see this one trend colder/further south, but still think icing is the main threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z NAM further south and weaker. huge CAD signal, pretty much all precip that falls is frozen besides S Jersey. .5-.75 all frozen for SE PA through central nj. Hard to tell how much of that is snow though, looks like 1-2 inches maybe then all ice... LV is mostly if not all snow though .25-.5 LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS crept south a bit from 06z also. Keep the trend going please. (= less ice, more snow :-)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS crept south a bit from 06z also. Keep the trend going please. (= less ice, more snow :-)) weaker too. still a big ice signal though. The heaviest precip falls as frz rain/sleet in SE PA where as 6z it was rain. Good trend, the icing signal on this one continues to grow imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yeah, it looks like this will end up weaker and further south - similar to how last Saturday's event ended up. Although the area of snow/ice won't be as far south this time since the airmass going into this event isn't as cold as last Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z Euro weaker but really warm, no CAD signal shows up, which imo is going to be wrong. 18z NAM even colder than 12z but still a lot of ice. 1-3 inches of snow then frz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I trust the current Euro solution for this storm as much as I trust Ruben Amaro Jr. to improve the Phillies...in other words, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm riding whatever model has the least snow, right now the ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The 18z 4km NAM has a heavy front-end thump followed by prolonged icing for the entire area. Considering that this happens overnight, this could be a very impactful ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Anything for Sunday day? I am chaperoning our schools last ski trip to the Poconos. Our charter bus leaves early Sun am and comes back at night. The evening ride home is where I have concern. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Anything for Sunday day? I am chaperoning our schools last ski trip to the Poconos. Our charter bus leaves early Sun am and comes back at night. The evening ride home is where I have concern. Thanks. Yes, precip looks like it will arrive by midday in the Poconos, a bit later in the Delaware Valley, but it should be precipitating in most places by sun-down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wxsim with 18z data continues the weaker/colder trend as the Met who cannot be named predicted although I can't say I see his significant snow somewhere in the NW burbs between PHL and NYC but here is the latest GFS/NAM view for NW Chester County PA for Sunday Eve into Monday 7pm moderate snow temp 30.5 (0.6" snow) 10pm Snow/IP mix temp 27.9 (2.1" snow) 1am IP/ZR temp 28.2 4am IP/ZR temp 28.9 (0.58" w.e.) 5am precip ends temp 29.4 (0.62" w.e. all frozen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 I haven't had my mind quite glued to this just yet (even though I started the thread!)... but here are the latest snow progs from meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Whether it's snow or freezing rain, my Monday morning first delivery isn't going to be fun. It's a really tight dock located on a narrow side street in Whitehall, PA. I have to go down a steep hill, hook a tight right turn, with a 53 ft trailer, just missing a telephone pole on the right side corner, then half blindsiding it into their dock. once almost in, I have to jacknife the tractor so I don't block off the street while they are unloading me. What is difficult on a nice day may be next to impossible if the roads are snowcovered or glazed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Whether it's snow or freezing rain, my Monday morning first delivery isn't going to be fun. It's a really tight dock located on a narrow side street in Whitehall, PA. I have to go down a steep hill, hook a tight right turn, with a 53 ft trailer, just missing a telephone pole on the right side corner, then half blindsiding it into their dock. once almost in, I have to jacknife the tractor so I don't block off the street while they are unloading me. What is difficult on a nice day may be next to impossible if the roads are snowcovered or glazed over. Untitled-1.jpg And hopefully no one is parked in front of the white house on the corner, too close to the stop sign :-). Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Whether it's snow or freezing rain, my Monday morning first delivery isn't going to be fun. It's a really tight dock located on a narrow side street in Whitehall, PA. I have to go down a steep hill, hook a tight right turn, with a 53 ft trailer, just missing a telephone pole on the right side corner, then half blindsiding it into their dock. once almost in, I have to jacknife the tractor so I don't block off the street while they are unloading me. What is difficult on a nice day may be next to impossible if the roads are snowcovered or glazed over. Untitled-1.jpg Not that this helps but at least you get a chance to think over a strategy before attempting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Some 0Z snow-progs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 And hopefully no one is parked in front of the white house on the corner, too close to the stop sign :-). Good luck! Sometimes they are, especially for the first delivery at 7:00am. I have the 9:00am second delivery so there's a better chance it's open. Not that this helps but at least you get a chance to think over a strategy before attempting it? I've been there twice before so I know what I need to do. Like I said though, that place is a PITA on a nice day. The frest snow and/or ice will be the challenge. Ray, what's your take on this event? Over in the central PA forum, they're saying it has trended colder on the overnight runs. Looking at your last post, the NAM and the Caadian look snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sometimes they are, especially for the first delivery at 7:00am. I have the 9:00am second delivery so there's a better chance it's open. I've been there twice before so I know what I need to do. Like I said, that place is a PITA on a nice day. The frest snow and/or ice will be the challenge. Ray, what's your take on this event? Over in the central PA forum, they're saying it has trended colder on the overnight runs. Looking at your last post, the NAM and the Caadian look snowier. Yes they are a bit especially in your area. That's more because of them both increasing QPF, not necessarily a shift in temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 6Z NAM has over .5 qpf of ZR at KPHL. Would think that's overdone but definitely time to start getting concerned. The theme of the year has been for these events to verify a few degrees colder than modeled as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The 6z NAM and GFS are worlds apart on snow totals from the Lehigh Valley north and west. Anyone care to venture which one is closer to being the correct outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The 6z NAM and GFS are worlds apart on snow totals from the Lehigh Valley north and west. Anyone care to venture which one is closer to being the correct outcome?Isn't the nam always a bit juiced?I'd venture to say that the gas is closer to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Isn't the nam always a bit juiced? I'd venture to say that the gas is closer to reality The RGEM is closer to the NAM, if that means anything. The GFS has the lowest totals for our area. I'm inclined to split the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Thanks. Yes I know the NAM's wet bias, but with RGEM close to it, splitting the difference makes sense. Seems like it's setting up to be a nice snowfall for some parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Hopefully the precip starts a little later in the afternoon...wouldn't want to take my chances with the sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The goofus was supposed to be improved but it's still the goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Im bracing for a major ice storm in Doylestown after several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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