sparklecity Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The marginal/limited moisture/teaser events always overperform for us. If only this could be applied to the forecasted "blockbuster" events. I actually got more snow from the not so talked about early week system than the Wednesday night system. I got 1 3/8's inch from the first storm and only 1 1/4 inch of slop from the "big" storm. Yeah that last storm was my least favorite of the 3 this year. I notice some showers starting to pop up on radar from Athens to Augusta moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Back on topic...21z sref plumes look similar to 15z for the triad region. .25-.33 for a mean while fzrn is the dominant p-type. Yes, agreed...back on topic. The number in my head was .3 from Bennett to Holly Springs and north. May have more than originally expected...plus the AWESOME halo around the sun here today...so temps are low and got lots of juice in the air. I think i may stick that pic on our photo forum. Addition: photo us under wow photo gallery...just in case you want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 You were the one that brought up stuff about WxSouth and kept talking about it. I was just passing along info. You sound like you are mad about it for some reason. I am not trolling anyone but you are being a jerk just because someone shared his thoughts. Wow, just wow........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Weatherbug.. I still think Blythewood will end up too South for anything major. NWS @ KCAE seems to agree. But they think Sumter is gonna get ice........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 You do know that people commit suicide because of bullies like you, don't you? When you know someone that has done that, it becomes personal. Knock it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowtown Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's about 27 degrees here in raleigh with a dew point in the mid teens. Mostly clear sky (I can see stars). I have a feeling we will have a colder scenario here in the eastern piedmont than what is being modeled/forecasted. It will be interesting to see how much precipitation developes tonight. As others have mentioned, the precip seems to be aimed a little more east of where we expected. I could see the central piedmont locking in below freezing for longer than the climo-favored nw Piedmont in a situation like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 27.3 here in Colfax at 10 pm. Sky is thin clouds. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowtown Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Does anybody know if the models still factor in snow cover from the last storm into the forecasted temperatures at this point? I mean, do they realize we still have a pretty healthy snowpack at this point? That's got to be working in our favor tonight. Latent heat release should be offset quite a bit if we go into this event with temps in the mid 20s, dew points in the teens, and several inches of snow on the ground in many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Does anybody know if the models still factor in snow cover from the last storm into the forecasted temperatures at this point? I mean, do they realize we still have a pretty healthy snowpack at this point? That's got to be working in our favor tonight. Latent heat release should be offset quite a bit if we go into this event with temps in the mid 20s, dew points in the teens, and several inches of snow on the ground in many areas Right now, we just need the precip to start ASAP, and a lot of it. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 My temp is on the rise, clouds must be moving in. went from 27.7 to 29.1 in about an hour!!! DP is 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowtown Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Right now, we just need the precip to start ASAP, and a lot of it. TW It seems like the timing will be in our favor. We're seeing pretty good radiational cooling down my way. If we can keep dropping, then get the clouds and precip to race in all at once before daybreak, that seems like a perfect scenario to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's fine. I'm not mad... it's just I see people constantly talking about how he says "this and that".. like it's supposed to be gospel. (BRICK! i am talking to you). Anyway, you are a fellow business man like myself even? Whatya do? Oh, idk. I don't read the stuff. Just know in the vent thread about the last storm it was mentioned. I think you guys are getting me wrong. OF COURSE a wedge holds on longer than models show. It has happened many times over. Brick posted that WXSouth said it, so since he said it must be true! Us other peons who said it (look at my post from last night) are looked over. I had been building timber frame homes but I just closed that business. The last few years the demand for high end homes keeps dropping. I have a couple of rentals and play in real estate. I'm thinking about getting back in to flipping foreclosures. it seems like the only new construction going on is smaller family homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 this is the what makes me wonder sometimes lol. nothing anywhere near my back yard but advisories out for a lot of areas where nothing shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowtown Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Just heard that rah has said they will be expanding wwa east. Wral shows qpf of .36 at rdu and .26 at gso. If temps stay below freezing longer than expected (which I could see happening), this would be plenty to cause problems. I'm just not so sure we will see that much moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Rapidwx-US Much of NC seeing freezing rain by 7AM, heaviest over the Piedmont and Foothills be careful while your headed out to your morning services! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowtown Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Down to 25 now imb. Already 2 below the forecasted low for the night. Hopefully I'm not posting more than welcome. I've lurked on here forever, but I really never post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Couple streaks of .25"-.50" in N SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowtown Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Precip really seems like it is ramping up over next couple hours along the savannah river inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I had been building timber frame homes but I just closed that business. The last few years the demand for high end homes keeps dropping. I have a couple of rentals and play in real estate. I'm thinking about getting back in to flipping foreclosures. it seems like the only new construction going on is smaller family homes. The flipping market is saturated.. but you definitely can do well in mountain areas. Most stay away from there and go for the "urban" thing. I'm not good with construction but know a couple in the market who talk about how it is now.. nobody ever mentions mountain type homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Down to 25 now imb. Already 2 below the forecasted low for the night. Hopefully I'm not posting more than welcome. I've lurked on here forever, but I really never post great posts! hope we dont see as much qpf as it looks. ive had enough of losing power for one week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 36 degrees here! Wwa for rain? Bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 great posts! hope we dont see as much qpf as it looks. ive had enough of losing power for one week. Amen brother Dopp. I was only out for about 8hrs (12mid-8am) but enough to strain my enjoyment of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It gonna get slick in the morning, if we get a shower come through!!! 28.7/19 WB= 25.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The high pressure seems to be quite stubborn and hasn't moved much at all in the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Freezing wetbulbs continue to creep southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The RGEM continues to be consistent with regards to where it places the "heaviest" freezing rain. Here is the 00z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowtown Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The high pressure seems to be quite stubborn and hasn't moved much at all in the last few hours. That's a great graphic! Look how it's ridging further south over time. If anything the center seems to be retrograding back over the mid Atlantic tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Radar really doesn't look all that bad tonight for western nc. Looks like it continues to build as it moves nottj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's a great graphic! Look how it's ridging further south over time. If anything the center seems to be retrograding back over the mid Atlantic tonight. What I take away from the graphic is that the HP is slowly sliding east. It is quite common during this process for the HP to actually wedge south, just east of the mountains. Sometime thereafter, the trend east of the mountains will reverse - it's just a matter of how long it is before the trend reverses to the point of getting wetbulb's above freezing. So from my perspective, the graphic does NOT show the hp trying to lock in, and the process if basically playing out as expected - though timing is still in question. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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