Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

3/1 CAD Event Discussion


JoshM

Recommended Posts

The marginal/limited moisture/teaser events always overperform for us. If only this could be applied to the forecasted "blockbuster" events.

 

I actually got more snow from the not so talked about early week system than the Wednesday night system. I got 1 3/8's inch from the first storm and only 1 1/4 inch of slop from the "big" storm.

 

Yeah that last storm was my least favorite of the 3 this year.  I notice some showers starting to pop up on radar from Athens to Augusta moving NE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 328
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Back on topic...21z sref plumes look similar to 15z for the triad region. .25-.33 for a mean while fzrn is the dominant p-type.

 

Yes, agreed...back on topic.  The number in my head was .3 from Bennett to Holly Springs and north.   May have more than originally expected...plus the AWESOME halo around the sun here today...so temps are low and got lots of juice in the air.  I think i may stick that pic on our photo forum.  

 

Addition:  photo us under wow photo gallery...just in case you want to see

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's about 27 degrees here in raleigh with a dew point in the mid teens. Mostly clear sky (I can see stars). I have a feeling we will have a colder scenario here in the eastern piedmont than what is being modeled/forecasted. It will be interesting to see how much precipitation developes tonight. As others have mentioned, the precip seems to be aimed a little more east of where we expected. I could see the central piedmont locking in below freezing for longer than the climo-favored nw Piedmont in a situation like this

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does anybody know if the models still factor in snow cover from the last storm into the forecasted temperatures at this point? I mean, do they realize we still have a pretty healthy snowpack at this point? That's got to be working in our favor tonight. Latent heat release should be offset quite a bit if we go into this event with temps in the mid 20s, dew points in the teens, and several inches of snow on the ground in many areas

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does anybody know if the models still factor in snow cover from the last storm into the forecasted temperatures at this point? I mean, do they realize we still have a pretty healthy snowpack at this point? That's got to be working in our favor tonight. Latent heat release should be offset quite a bit if we go into this event with temps in the mid 20s, dew points in the teens, and several inches of snow on the ground in many areas

Right now, we just need the precip to start ASAP, and a lot of it.

TW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right now, we just need the precip to start ASAP, and a lot of it.

TW

It seems like the timing will be in our favor. We're seeing pretty good radiational cooling down my way. If we can keep dropping, then get the clouds and precip to race in all at once before daybreak, that seems like a perfect scenario to me
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's fine. I'm not mad... it's just I see people constantly talking about how he says "this and that".. like it's supposed to be gospel. (BRICK! i am talking to you). Anyway, you are a fellow business man like myself even? Whatya do?

Oh, idk. I don't read the stuff. Just know in the vent thread about the last storm it was mentioned.

I think you guys are getting me wrong. OF COURSE a wedge holds on longer than models show. It has happened many times over. Brick posted that WXSouth said it, so since he said it must be true! Us other peons who said it (look at my post from last night) are looked over.

I had been building timber frame homes but I just closed that business. The last few years the demand for high end homes keeps dropping. I have a couple of rentals and play in real estate. I'm thinking about getting back in to flipping foreclosures. it seems like the only new construction going on is smaller family homes.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just heard that rah has said they will be expanding wwa east. Wral shows qpf of .36 at rdu and .26 at gso. If temps stay below freezing longer than expected (which I could see happening), this would be plenty to cause problems. I'm just not so sure we will see that much moisture...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had been building timber frame homes but I just closed that business. The last few years the demand for high end homes keeps dropping. I have a couple of rentals and play in real estate. I'm thinking about getting back in to flipping foreclosures. it seems like the only new construction going on is smaller family homes.

 

The flipping market is saturated.. but you definitely can do well in mountain areas.  Most stay away from there and go for the "urban" thing.

 

I'm not good with construction but know a couple in the market who talk about how it is now.. nobody ever mentions mountain type homes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Down to 25 now imb. Already 2 below the forecasted low for the night. Hopefully I'm not posting more than welcome. I've lurked on here forever, but I really never post

great posts!  hope we dont see as much qpf as it looks.  ive had enough of losing power for one week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The high pressure seems to be quite stubborn and hasn't moved much at all in the last few hours.

2qvf5tz.gif

That's a great graphic! Look how it's ridging further south over time. If anything the center seems to be retrograding back over the mid Atlantic tonight.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's a great graphic! Look how it's ridging further south over time. If anything the center seems to be retrograding back over the mid Atlantic tonight.

What I take away from the graphic is that the HP is slowly sliding east.  It is quite common during this process for the HP to actually wedge south, just east of the mountains.  Sometime thereafter, the trend east of the mountains will reverse - it's just a matter of how long it is before the trend reverses to the point of getting wetbulb's above freezing.  So from my perspective, the graphic does NOT show the hp trying to lock in, and the process if basically playing out as expected - though timing is still in question.  

TW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...